Tuesday 6th December 2016
NEWS TICKER, December 5th: Russia’s NCSP is due to publish its 9m 16 IFRs results at noon, Moscow time. Expect sales of $670mn, $516m of EBITDA and net income at $451m. The firm says it sees only a low chance of the company paying dividends for 2H16. Second, the regulatory measures from the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service might be unfavourable for the company’s financials, while ruble strengthening is also negative says the firm. Finally, there is uncertainty over the ultimate buyer of Transneft and the state-owned stake - Italian premier Matteo Renzi has confirmed he will resign following yesterday’s referendum. The euro is the casualty du jour, touching a 20-month low against the US dollar in overnight trading. All-in the market has reacted with maturity as the result was not unexpected. The Austrian result too gives some call for comfort. The resulting statement from the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels this morning for reaction to Italy’s referendum result will be widely ready. A signal of intent of the continuation in the ECB’s QE programme will also be important to markets this week, but whether an extension will be good is pause for thought. Still, will be interesting to see whether Draghi can pull another rabbit out of his magical hat. Might be difficult this time around. The reality is that the impact of Italy’s referendum result is contained, relative to the rest of the world. As Maarten-Jan Bakkum, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist: says, "For now, emerging markets are primarily driven by US yields (when yields are up, they put the emerging markets carry trade under more pressure) and news from China (this week the FX reserves number is likely to be worse and might cause some new worries about Chinese outflows). Meanwhile, increasing evidence of Chinese policy tightening should create more doubts about the sustainability of Chinese growth in the first half of 2017." -

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Set against a dynamic business backdrop in its own backyard, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) has adopted a confident and bold strategy to establish its global footprint within the exchange industry. Last year’s move into new commodity focused asset classes marks a new dimension in EEX’s growth and its continued transition from Europe’s leading energy exchange towards a global, multi-commodity exchange group. It has provided EEX and its parent company, Deutsche Börse Group, a growing competitive edge, given that it can also provide the vertical post trade support infrastructure required to back its expansion plans. Why has EEX been so successful in Europe, and how does that translate into its plans for global growth?

Wednesday, 21 October 2015

Egypt opts for development funds

For the third time this year, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has depreciated the Egyptian pound against the dollar in a foreign exchange auction in mid-October, taking the currency's decline for the year to 9.8%. The pound fell 1.3%(10 piasters) to 7.93 per dollar sell side and 7.88 buy side according to a report by the state-owned Middle East News Agency, which announced that the CBE offered $40m at a regular dollar sale to local lenders. Can the country pick its way out of the blues?


The make-up of shareholders in Turkey’s banking segment has always been a touchstone of wider market change. The country has always been a swing market and the banking system has remained vulnerable, even with an improved capital base, as it has an ultra-high dependency on foreign funding of lending. That vulnerability has resulted in some significant changes in the investment in the country’s banking segment by foreign financial firms who have shown little stickiness in the country when the going gets tougher.

Wednesday, 21 October 2015

Political uncertainty weighs on Turkey

A survey of 947 respondents in Turkey by Washington think tank PewCentre Research suggests Turks are dissatisfied with the direction of their country. Rising prices, crime and inequality are concerns. Moreover after years of quasi-Islamic rule that has been antipathetic to the military; survey respondents say the military is the only group with a “good influence on the country”. Opinions of the police, national government, religious leaders and the courts are mixed, while views of the media tilt to the negative. More pertinently perhaps, 52% of Turks think their children will be worse off financially in the future. The findings come as voters are scheduled to revisit national government elections on November 1st after the AKP party failed to form a coalition government in June. The upcoming elections will be closely watched, both as a bellwether of wider change in the eastern Mediterranean and as an indicator of the near term prospects for a lynchpin emerging market.


In September, FTSE Group announced that Qatar will be upgraded from frontier to secondary emerging markets within the FTSE Global Equity Index Series in two equal tranches in September 2016 and March 2017, after the index provider confirmed that the country had now passed its key liquidity criteria for Secondary Emerging Market inclusion. Despite the plunge in oil prices, Qatar has held up relatively well in the current rout in emerging market stocks. Although with the exception of the FTSE upgrade, there remains a lack of immediate catalysts for Qatari stocks, even so Qatar maintains its edge as the government continues to spend freely, even as energy prices remain depressed. Does positive thinking about the kingdom’s prospects have legs?

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