Monday 6th July 2015
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY, JULY 3rd: Euronext says trading volumes for June 2015 and enterprise-wide activity for the first half year. During the first six months of 2015, Euronext posted the strongest six-month performance since the end of 2011 supported by favourable economic conditions. June average daily transaction value on the Euronext cash order book stood at €9,202m (+54% compared with June 2014). Activity on ETFs remained particularly dynamic last month with an average daily transaction value at €587m, up 106% compared to June 2014. Cash markets saw a material increase in trading activity across the first half of 2015, with an average daily transaction value for the period up 35% vs 2014. During this period, Euronext experienced three of the ten highest volume traded days since January 2012, and on march 20th the strongest single day of trading cash products of €18bn since the same date. In the meantime, the continued focus on nurturing domestic market share meant it returned to 65% for the month of June in a highly competitive environment - Morningstar has placed the Morningstar Analyst Rating for the Mirabaud Equities Swiss Small and Mid-fund Under Review following the appointment of new portfolio manager, Paul Schibli. The fund previously held a Neutral rating. Morningstar manager research analysts will meet with the new manager soon to reassess Morningstar’s opinion on the fund - Moody’s has today changed the outlook on all ratings of Bridge Holdco 4 Ltd, the ultimate holding company for Bridon Group, to stable from positive. Concurrently, the group's B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), B3-PD Probability of Default Rating (PDR) as well as the B2 instrument rating on the USD286 million senior secured first lien term loan, $40m senior secured revolving credit facility and the Caa2 rating on the $111m senior secured second lien term loan borrowed by Bridge Finco LLC have been affirmed - Subsea 7 S.A. repurchase of convertible bonds has filed a notice with the Luxembourg stock exchange that it has repurchased convertible bonds worth $10m in nominal value at an average price of 91.5 of the $700m 1% Subsea 7 S.A. Convertible Bond Issue 2012/2017 (ISIN NO: 001066116.8). Following the purchase, the Company holds bonds with an aggregate nominal value of USD 91,800,000 representing approximately 13.1% of the 1.00% Subsea 7 S.A. Convertible Bond Issue 2012/2017 - Bellpenny says that its CEO, Kevin Ronaldson, will step down later this year to become ‘Founder Director’ of the business. Nigel Stockton, who has been a director of Bellpenny since inception, will, subject to FCA approval, become the new CEO. The changes are expected to take effect in September - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 14.89 points or 0.45% higher to 3342.73, taking the year-to-date performance to -0.67%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 2.00%, Singtel, which closed unchanged, Global Logistic, which declined 0.39%, Ascendas REIT, which gained 0.42% and UOB, with a 0.43% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.16%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.30%. Outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Financials Index, which rose 0.69%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - DBS Group Holdings and OCBC- ended 2.00% higher and 0.79% higher respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which slipped 0.89%. Midas Holdings shares declined 1.56% and NSL increased 0.67%.

Latest Video

Blog

The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Avoid investing in German financial assets

Wednesday, 09 May 2012 Written by 
Avoid investing in German financial assets It may seem tempting to invest in German financial or property assets: Germany's economic and financial situation is at present far better than that of the other euro-zone countries, and German assets have outperformed those of the other euro-zone countries. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

It may seem tempting to invest in German financial or property assets: Germany's economic and financial situation is at present far better than that of the other euro-zone countries, and German assets have outperformed those of the other euro-zone countries.

But it should be realised that: German assets are overvalued because the euro zone's monetary policy is too expansionary for Germany and because German investors have a very significant domestic bias while the supply of assets is small and Germany risks economic and financial overheating which could lead to a correction in asset prices in the medium term.

German financial assets might seem attractive
German financial and property assets might seem attractive for two reasons. First, because the present economic and financial situation in Germany is far better than in other euro-zone countries. This is reflected in its public finances, current-account balance, the size of its industry and export capacity, its cost-competitiveness, corporate profitability and investment drive, and in its labour market - which is now experiencing rises in real wages, compared to falling real wages in the rest of the euro zone. All in all, given that Germany does not need to reduce its fiscal deficit, and given the rise in real wages, better export performance, increasing business investment and job creation, the growth outlook is at present far better in Germany than in the other euro-zone countries.



The second reason why German assets could seem attractive is that their recent performance has been strong. This is true for government bonds, equities, corporate bonds, bank debts and residential real estate (but not commercial real estate), since 2008.

But in reality, investment in German assets should be avoided, because they are too expensive and Germany could start overheating

German assets are too expensive
Since 2006, Germany has witnessed and will continue to maintain stronger growth than the euro zone as a whole. This means that the euro zone's current monetary policy is too expansionary for Germany, as it was for the rest of the euro zone from 2002 to 2007. This of course tends to cause a rise in asset prices.

Also, Germany has excess savings (by households and companies, as shown by its external surplus) with an increasing bias for investing domestically, while at the same time the supply of assets is small: meaning the fiscal deficit has almost disappeared, companies are self-financed and issue few bonds and residential construction is at a low level. There is therefore ex ante excess demand for German assets, which has driven up asset prices, especially for safe-haven government bonds.

Germany could start overheating in the medium term
Germany is practically in a situation of full employment, and since its companies are very profitable, wage growth is accelerating. In 2012-2013 an increase in the unit wage cost approaching 3% can be expected, with productivity gains that are fairly low. This will probably lead to a rise in underlying inflation towards 2%, and hence to even more abnormally low long-term interest rates, which will continue to push up the prices of other assets.

It is well known that such a situation of overheating (full employment and interest rates that are too low relative to growth) is potentially unstable and can lead to a downward correction in asset prices (as it occurred in Spain, Ireland and the United States, for example).

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

Related News

Related Articles

Related Blogs

Related Videos

Current IssueSpecial Report

Tweets by @DataLend

DataLend is a global securities finance market data provider covering 42,000+ unique securities globally with a total on-loan value of more than $1.8 trillion.

What do our tweets mean? See: http://bit.ly/18YlGjP