Thursday 27th November 2014
NEWS TICKER: THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27TH 2014: The Straits Times Index (STI) ended -8.70 points lower or -0.26% to 3340.96, taking the year-to-date performance to +5.56%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -0.11% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.43%. The top active stocks were SingTel (-0.26%), DBS (-0.25%), ThaiBev (-4.38%), Suntec REIT (+0.26%) and OCBC Bank (+0.10%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Health Care Index (+0.47%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Health Care Index are Raffles Medical Group (-0.52%) and Biosensors International Group (+2.75%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which declined -2.14% with Midas Holdings ’ share price declining -5.09% and Geo Energy Resources’ share price gaining +2.33%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (+0.26%), United SSE 50 China ETF (-0.57%), STI ETF (+0.59%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Suntec REIT (+0.26%), Ascendas REIT (-0.86%), CapitaCom Trust (-0.89%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI24400MBeCW141230 (-15.73%), HSI23800MBePW150129 (+6.45%), HSI23600MBePW141230 (+11.11%). The most active stock warrants by value today were DBS MB eCW150602 (+3.33%), UOB MB eCW150415 (+5.23%), UOB MB eCW150102 (+2.38%) - Moody's has withdrawn the rating of Rossiyskiy Kredit Bank's Caa3 long-term local- and foreign-currency deposit ratings, the Not Prime short-term deposit ratings and the E standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), equivalent to a caa3 baseline credit assessment. The ratings agency says the rating has been withdrawn for its own business reasons At the time of the withdrawal, the outlook on the bank's long-term ratings was negative while the standalone E BFSR carried a stable outlook - Malaysian builder MMC Corp Bhd said earlier today that it will list its power unit Malakoff Bhd (IPO-MALB.KL) in a deal bankers expect to raise more than $1bn dollars. The IPO, for up to 30.4% of Malakoff's capital, was deferred earlier this year and approval from the Securities Commission lapsed as a result. MMC, controlled by reclusive Malaysian tycoon Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary, will resubmit the application within one month and expects the deal to be completed by second quarter of 2015, according to a local stock exchange filing – According to local press report the newly minted Somalia Stock Exchange expects seven companies in the telecoms, financial services and transport sectors to list when it is set up in 2015. Somalia's economy is slowly recovering from more than two decades of conflict, although the government is still battling an Islamist insurgency. Amid the chaos, some businesses have thrived, including money transfer and mobile phone firms. The Somalia Stock Exchange has opened administrative offices in Mogadishu and other Somali centres like Kismayu, as well as in Nairobi, to help recruitment and in other related issues - Moody's has upgraded to Baa1 from Baa2 the long-term deposit ratings of China CITIC Bank International Limited, and affirmed the bank's P-2 short-term deposit ratings. The bank's senior unsecured MTN program rating and deposit note/CD program ratings are also upgraded to (P)Baa1/Baa1 from (P)Baa2/Baa2, while the short-term deposit note/CD program ratings are affirmed at (P)P-2. The bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) is unchanged at baa3. The outlook on all the ratings is stable. The rating action concludes Moody's review for upgrade for China CITIC Bank International, which was initiated on September 2nd this year, after the senior unsecured bond rating of its ultimate parents CITIC Group Corporation and CITIC Limited (formerly CITIC Pacific Limited) were upgraded to A3 from Baa2. CITIC Group Corporation, wholly owned by China's Ministry of Finance, owns 78% of CITIC Limited, which in turn owns 67% of China CITIC Bank.

Avoid investing in German financial assets

Wednesday, 09 May 2012 Written by 
Avoid investing in German financial assets It may seem tempting to invest in German financial or property assets: Germany's economic and financial situation is at present far better than that of the other euro-zone countries, and German assets have outperformed those of the other euro-zone countries. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

It may seem tempting to invest in German financial or property assets: Germany's economic and financial situation is at present far better than that of the other euro-zone countries, and German assets have outperformed those of the other euro-zone countries.

But it should be realised that: German assets are overvalued because the euro zone's monetary policy is too expansionary for Germany and because German investors have a very significant domestic bias while the supply of assets is small and Germany risks economic and financial overheating which could lead to a correction in asset prices in the medium term.

German financial assets might seem attractive
German financial and property assets might seem attractive for two reasons. First, because the present economic and financial situation in Germany is far better than in other euro-zone countries. This is reflected in its public finances, current-account balance, the size of its industry and export capacity, its cost-competitiveness, corporate profitability and investment drive, and in its labour market - which is now experiencing rises in real wages, compared to falling real wages in the rest of the euro zone. All in all, given that Germany does not need to reduce its fiscal deficit, and given the rise in real wages, better export performance, increasing business investment and job creation, the growth outlook is at present far better in Germany than in the other euro-zone countries.



The second reason why German assets could seem attractive is that their recent performance has been strong. This is true for government bonds, equities, corporate bonds, bank debts and residential real estate (but not commercial real estate), since 2008.

But in reality, investment in German assets should be avoided, because they are too expensive and Germany could start overheating

German assets are too expensive
Since 2006, Germany has witnessed and will continue to maintain stronger growth than the euro zone as a whole. This means that the euro zone's current monetary policy is too expansionary for Germany, as it was for the rest of the euro zone from 2002 to 2007. This of course tends to cause a rise in asset prices.

Also, Germany has excess savings (by households and companies, as shown by its external surplus) with an increasing bias for investing domestically, while at the same time the supply of assets is small: meaning the fiscal deficit has almost disappeared, companies are self-financed and issue few bonds and residential construction is at a low level. There is therefore ex ante excess demand for German assets, which has driven up asset prices, especially for safe-haven government bonds.

Germany could start overheating in the medium term
Germany is practically in a situation of full employment, and since its companies are very profitable, wage growth is accelerating. In 2012-2013 an increase in the unit wage cost approaching 3% can be expected, with productivity gains that are fairly low. This will probably lead to a rise in underlying inflation towards 2%, and hence to even more abnormally low long-term interest rates, which will continue to push up the prices of other assets.

It is well known that such a situation of overheating (full employment and interest rates that are too low relative to growth) is potentially unstable and can lead to a downward correction in asset prices (as it occurred in Spain, Ireland and the United States, for example).

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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