Tuesday 7th July 2015
NEWS TICKER: MONDAY, JULY 6TH: Moody's Interfax Rating Agency (MIRA), which specialises in credit risk analysis in Russia, has withdrawn the Baa1.ru national scale rating of Petrocommerce Bank (OJSC) based in Russia (Ba1 negative). This action follows Petrocommerce Bank's reorganisation and merger with Bank Otkritie Financial Corporation PJSC (deposits/senior unsecured Ba3 negative, BCA b1). Moody's Interfax Rating Agency's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks, report Moody’s. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".ru" for Russia. - PEGAS, the pan-European gas trading platform operated by Powernext, today announced that a total volume of 68.9 TWh were traded in June 2015. This represents a year on year increase of 41% (June 2014: 48.8 TWhPEGAS, the pan-European gas trading platform operated by Powernext, today announced that a total volume of 68.9 TWh were traded in June 2015. This represents a year on year increase of 41% (June 2014: 48.8 TWh).Overall spot trading volumes amounted to 28.4 TWh which represents a year on year increase of 31%. PEGAS recorded volume increases in particular in the German, French and Dutch market areas. The June volume in the German GASPOOL and NCG areas increased to 12.0 TWh (+33%), including 3.6 TWh traded in quality-specific gas products. The volume in the French PEG Nord and TRS market area rose to 8.0 TWh (+40%). The Dutch TTF spot volume reached 8.1 TWh (+17%) while the Belgian ZTP spot market registered a volume of 222,715 MWh. The total volume of spread transactions amounted to 2.3 TWh. - Clearstream has issued an update to the Statement of Holdings report (MT535), covering both HTML and CSV formats: effective immediately the newly added column, “Pledged for Collateral” for non-available positions (introduced as part of the June release) will be renamed "Pledged for Collateral NAVL". This change applies to the Statement of Holdings report (MT535) in HTML format and when downloaded as a CSV file. Other reporting formats are not impacted, says Clearstream. In addition, when downloaded as an MT535 CSV file, the newly named column "Pledged for Collateral NAVL" will now appear as the final column. This allows a better reconciliation of positions, says Clearstream Banking - Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today: "The IMF has taken note of yesterday’s referendum held in Greece. We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to assist Greece if requested to do so.” - Morgan Lewis is enhancing its United Kingdom and global employment law capabilities with the addition of employment investigations and data privacy partner Pulina Whitaker, who joins the firm today from another global law firm. Her arrival, says the firm, strengthens the full suite of global client services offered from the Morgan Lewis London office, including those connected to finance, corporate, energy, funds, and litigation - Leading shares in European bourses will continue to struggle today as investors look for direction from European leaders over their response to the Greek referendum decision yesterday. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei retreated -2.08% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng went down by 4% and the Shenzhen Composite down by 4.69%. The Shanghai Composite stabilised around 3,709, up 0.61%, as China Security Finance Corp, the institution which managed short selling and margin trading, will receive a capital boost to 76bn “to maintain financial market stability and expand its business".; it is actually something of a turnaround, as Chinese equities have been under pressure for over a month now. In Australia, equity markets are trading into negative territory with the S&P/ASX down -1.14% while AUD/USD broke to the downside the strong support lying at 0.7533 (low from April 2) and is heading toward the following one at 0.7414 (low from October 2010). Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision. The US dollar is broadly higher against G10 as only the Japanese yen is adding gains versus USD. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet French president François Hollande later today. Greece’s main creditors have more pressures on their shoulders; analysts suggest that they will be more willing to provide significant debt relief measures. The next payment is due to the ECB on July 20th.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Avoid investing in German financial assets

Wednesday, 09 May 2012 Written by 
Avoid investing in German financial assets It may seem tempting to invest in German financial or property assets: Germany's economic and financial situation is at present far better than that of the other euro-zone countries, and German assets have outperformed those of the other euro-zone countries. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

It may seem tempting to invest in German financial or property assets: Germany's economic and financial situation is at present far better than that of the other euro-zone countries, and German assets have outperformed those of the other euro-zone countries.

But it should be realised that: German assets are overvalued because the euro zone's monetary policy is too expansionary for Germany and because German investors have a very significant domestic bias while the supply of assets is small and Germany risks economic and financial overheating which could lead to a correction in asset prices in the medium term.

German financial assets might seem attractive
German financial and property assets might seem attractive for two reasons. First, because the present economic and financial situation in Germany is far better than in other euro-zone countries. This is reflected in its public finances, current-account balance, the size of its industry and export capacity, its cost-competitiveness, corporate profitability and investment drive, and in its labour market - which is now experiencing rises in real wages, compared to falling real wages in the rest of the euro zone. All in all, given that Germany does not need to reduce its fiscal deficit, and given the rise in real wages, better export performance, increasing business investment and job creation, the growth outlook is at present far better in Germany than in the other euro-zone countries.



The second reason why German assets could seem attractive is that their recent performance has been strong. This is true for government bonds, equities, corporate bonds, bank debts and residential real estate (but not commercial real estate), since 2008.

But in reality, investment in German assets should be avoided, because they are too expensive and Germany could start overheating

German assets are too expensive
Since 2006, Germany has witnessed and will continue to maintain stronger growth than the euro zone as a whole. This means that the euro zone's current monetary policy is too expansionary for Germany, as it was for the rest of the euro zone from 2002 to 2007. This of course tends to cause a rise in asset prices.

Also, Germany has excess savings (by households and companies, as shown by its external surplus) with an increasing bias for investing domestically, while at the same time the supply of assets is small: meaning the fiscal deficit has almost disappeared, companies are self-financed and issue few bonds and residential construction is at a low level. There is therefore ex ante excess demand for German assets, which has driven up asset prices, especially for safe-haven government bonds.

Germany could start overheating in the medium term
Germany is practically in a situation of full employment, and since its companies are very profitable, wage growth is accelerating. In 2012-2013 an increase in the unit wage cost approaching 3% can be expected, with productivity gains that are fairly low. This will probably lead to a rise in underlying inflation towards 2%, and hence to even more abnormally low long-term interest rates, which will continue to push up the prices of other assets.

It is well known that such a situation of overheating (full employment and interest rates that are too low relative to growth) is potentially unstable and can lead to a downward correction in asset prices (as it occurred in Spain, Ireland and the United States, for example).

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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