Monday 6th July 2015
NEWS TICKER: MONDAY, JULY 6TH: Moody's Interfax Rating Agency (MIRA), which specialises in credit risk analysis in Russia, has withdrawn the Baa1.ru national scale rating of Petrocommerce Bank (OJSC) based in Russia (Ba1 negative). This action follows Petrocommerce Bank's reorganisation and merger with Bank Otkritie Financial Corporation PJSC (deposits/senior unsecured Ba3 negative, BCA b1). Moody's Interfax Rating Agency's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks, report Moody’s. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".ru" for Russia. - PEGAS, the pan-European gas trading platform operated by Powernext, today announced that a total volume of 68.9 TWh were traded in June 2015. This represents a year on year increase of 41% (June 2014: 48.8 TWhPEGAS, the pan-European gas trading platform operated by Powernext, today announced that a total volume of 68.9 TWh were traded in June 2015. This represents a year on year increase of 41% (June 2014: 48.8 TWh).Overall spot trading volumes amounted to 28.4 TWh which represents a year on year increase of 31%. PEGAS recorded volume increases in particular in the German, French and Dutch market areas. The June volume in the German GASPOOL and NCG areas increased to 12.0 TWh (+33%), including 3.6 TWh traded in quality-specific gas products. The volume in the French PEG Nord and TRS market area rose to 8.0 TWh (+40%). The Dutch TTF spot volume reached 8.1 TWh (+17%) while the Belgian ZTP spot market registered a volume of 222,715 MWh. The total volume of spread transactions amounted to 2.3 TWh. - Clearstream has issued an update to the Statement of Holdings report (MT535), covering both HTML and CSV formats: effective immediately the newly added column, “Pledged for Collateral” for non-available positions (introduced as part of the June release) will be renamed "Pledged for Collateral NAVL". This change applies to the Statement of Holdings report (MT535) in HTML format and when downloaded as a CSV file. Other reporting formats are not impacted, says Clearstream. In addition, when downloaded as an MT535 CSV file, the newly named column "Pledged for Collateral NAVL" will now appear as the final column. This allows a better reconciliation of positions, says Clearstream Banking - Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today: "The IMF has taken note of yesterday’s referendum held in Greece. We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to assist Greece if requested to do so.” - Morgan Lewis is enhancing its United Kingdom and global employment law capabilities with the addition of employment investigations and data privacy partner Pulina Whitaker, who joins the firm today from another global law firm. Her arrival, says the firm, strengthens the full suite of global client services offered from the Morgan Lewis London office, including those connected to finance, corporate, energy, funds, and litigation - Leading shares in European bourses will continue to struggle today as investors look for direction from European leaders over their response to the Greek referendum decision yesterday. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei retreated -2.08% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng went down by 4% and the Shenzhen Composite down by 4.69%. The Shanghai Composite stabilised around 3,709, up 0.61%, as China Security Finance Corp, the institution which managed short selling and margin trading, will receive a capital boost to 76bn “to maintain financial market stability and expand its business".; it is actually something of a turnaround, as Chinese equities have been under pressure for over a month now. In Australia, equity markets are trading into negative territory with the S&P/ASX down -1.14% while AUD/USD broke to the downside the strong support lying at 0.7533 (low from April 2) and is heading toward the following one at 0.7414 (low from October 2010). Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision. The US dollar is broadly higher against G10 as only the Japanese yen is adding gains versus USD. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet French president François Hollande later today. Greece’s main creditors have more pressures on their shoulders; analysts suggest that they will be more willing to provide significant debt relief measures. The next payment is due to the ECB on July 20th.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Countries’ attractiveness measured by business investment

Friday, 08 June 2012 Written by 
Countries’ attractiveness measured by business investment Countries’ attractiveness for companies can be measured indirectly, by looking at trends in cost-competitiveness, export market shares, production capacity and employment. But it can also be measured directly by looking at business investment: what proportion of investment by a country’s companies is carried out in that country or abroad? How much is invested by foreign companies in that country? We compare the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Sweden and Japan. The two measures of attractiveness rank the countries quite differently. If we measure attractiveness by business investment, the two most attractive countries are the United States and the United Kingdom, the two least attractive countries Italy and France. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Countries’ attractiveness for companies can be measured indirectly, by looking at trends in cost-competitiveness, export market shares, production capacity and employment. But it can also be measured directly by looking at business investment: what proportion of investment by a country’s companies is carried out in that country or abroad? How much is invested by foreign companies in that country? We compare the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Sweden and Japan.

The two measures of attractiveness rank the countries quite differently. If we measure attractiveness by business investment, the two most attractive countries are the United States and the United Kingdom, the two least attractive countries Italy and France.

Countries’ attractiveness for setting up business

Attractiveness depends on cost-competitiveness, the tax system, the skill level of the labour force, corporate profitability, public infrastructure, etc. So it is a multi-faceted and complex variable.



It can be measured indirectly, by:

  • cost-competitiveness, in light of the trend in exchange rates measured by the real trade-weighted exchange rate. Currently the currencies of the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain are overvalued in real terms;
  • export market shares, in which losses have been very marked in Japan, the United Kingdom, France and Italy;
  • the trend in potential GDP and in production capacity in industry. Potential GDP has grown significantly in the United States, while production capacity has stagnated in the United Kingdom, Japan, Spain and Italy;
  • growth in employment excluding the civil service, which has been the most vigorous in Spain and the weakest in Japan.

If we use these criteria, the most attractive countries for companies are the United States, Sweden, Germany, Spain and France, while the least attractive are the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan.

Attractiveness measured by investment

However, for each country we also look at two direct measures of attractiveness for companies:

  • the proportion of the country’s business investment that is carried out in that country and not abroad. This proportion is low in Sweden, France, Spain and the United Kingdom;
  • the share of investment by foreign companies in GDP. This proportion is high in Sweden, the United Kingdom and Spain.

According to this investment criterion of attractiveness, the most attractive countries are the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain; the least attractive are France and Italy.

Which are the most attractive countries among the large OECD countries?

When you summarise both the indirect and the direct approaches, you realize that the United States tops the ranking, while France and Italy are found at the bottom.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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