Thursday 28th May 2015
NEWS TICKER: WEDNESDAY, MAY 27TH: The S&P Capital IQ division of McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE:MHFI) whose CUSIP Global Services (CGS) unit produces identifying instruments and entities that support efficient global capital markets, says Scott Preiss, currently CGS’s Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, has been promoted to the role of Global Head & Managing Director, replacing Jim Taylor, who is retiring, on July 1st, after 28 years of service - Orezone Gold Corporation (ORE-TSX) says a mining permit application has been submitted to the government of Burkina Faso for the construction and operation of its wholly owned Bomboré gold project. The application is based upon the recently announced positive Feasibility Study (April 28, 2015) and includes an environmental and social impact assessment and a relocation action plan (RAP) for the local people affected by the project. The four to eight month permitting process includes public hearings and a complete review by the Ministry of Mines and Energy1 (MEE) and the Ministry of Environment and Durable Development2 (MEDD) and the National Mining Commission3 (NMC), a technical panel. During a weekly cabinet session in parliament the recommendations of the NMC are reviewed and once approved, the permit is a Decree signed by the President of Burkina Faso, the Minister of Economy and Finances, the Minister of MEE and the Minister of MEDD - BNP Paribas Securities Services says its BNP Paribas Dealing Services subsidiary has been selected to manage the dealing activities of RPMI Railpen, the investment manager for the Railways Pension Scheme (RPS). RPS is the sixth largest pension scheme in the UK. Following its decision to bring some of its investment activities in house, RPMI Railpen says it was looking for a dealing desk solution to optimise the execution of its market transactions. RPMI Railpen manages the assets of the RPS on behalf of its parent company, the Railways Pension Trustee Company Limited. Railpen Investments, its investment arm, is an FCA authorised investment manager with assets under management exceeding £21bn - LIM Advisors Ltd, a Hong Kong based fund manager, has signed a milestone agreement to utilise SimCorp Dimension for a full front, middle and back office platform. The $2bn fund manager will leverage SimCorp Dimension to establish full operational capability across multiple asset classes, including equity, bonds, convertibles, listed futures & options and derivatives - Botswana-based grocery retailer, Choppies Enterprises Limited (Choppies) debuted on the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in the Food Retailers and Wholesalers sector and is the sixth listing on the exchange this year. The firm raised SAR575m in a secondary listing. Choppies boasts a wide FMCG portfolio, including its own private label products and leading international food brands. As a fast growing retailer on the continent, Choppies’ secondary listing on the JSE is intended to assist the company with access to capital needed to support its organic and acquisitive growth as well as establish its presence and public profile in strategic markets in Southern and East African markets. The group is currently the top supermarket chain in Botswana, holding significant market share of the overall national food retail market. Choppies currently operates 125 retail outlets in Southern Africa, comprising 72 stores in Botswana, 35 stores in South Africa and 18 stores in Zimbabwe. Through the listing, Choppies intends to increase its footprint in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Namibia, Tanzania and Zambia – Small World FS, the international payment services provider says it has processed £10bn in transactions since launching in 2006. The London-headquartered financial technology business now operates the third largest payout network in the world, with a global payout network of over 250,000 locations in 188 countries. This news comes after months of rapid expansion, including the extension of its digital services into 14 sending markets, as well as inking deals with the MTN Group, Africa’s largest mobile operator, and Nations Trust Bank, Sri Lanka’s fastest growing bank - Ullink, a global provider of market leading electronic trading and connectivity solutions, today announced that Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), one of India's leading institutional brokers and a division of Kotak Securities has chosen Ullink’s UL Bridge connectivity solution. KIE has chosen UL Bridge to facilitate FIX messaging, message enrichment and order routing, to enhance its existing connectivity infrastructure. UL Bridge’s uniquely modular architecture works in conjunction with KIE’s Order Management System (OMS), allowing KIE to provide better execution services to more clients, both locally and globally - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 35.04 points or 1.01% lower to 3424.94, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.78%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which declined 1.54%, Singtel, which declined 1.89%, OCBC Bank, which declined 0.67%, UOB, which declined 1.62% and Ascendas-hTrust, with a 1.43% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.35%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.06%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Health Care Index, which rose 0.26%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Raffles Medical Group and Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation- ended 0.46% lower and 3.48% higher respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index, which slipped 1.81%. Singtel shares declined 1.89% and StarHub declined 0.50%.

Blog

The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

ECB bond purchases: the case for Spain and Italy

Monday, 13 August 2012 Written by 
ECB bond purchases: the case for Spain and Italy The European Central Bank (ECB) is feeling the pressure to add to its balance sheet massive amounts of sovereign debt from eurozone countries that are in distress. Assuming that the bank was to do so, with the clear objective of sharply reducing those countries' long-term interest rates, it begs the question, would the eurozone crisis then be solved? If we were to consider this in the context of Spain and Italy, we would argue that it could only happen if the bank’s intervention not only restored the fiscal and external solvency of the countries in distress, but also revived growth. While these objectives would be fairly easily achieved in Italy, they would not rescue Spain. In fact, even a massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would not pull Spain out of its crisis. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The European Central Bank (ECB) is feeling the pressure to add to its balance sheet massive amounts of sovereign debt from eurozone countries that are in distress. Assuming that the bank was to do so, with the clear objective of sharply reducing those countries' long-term interest rates, it begs the question, would the eurozone crisis then be solved?

If we were to consider this in the context of Spain and Italy, we would argue that it could only happen if the bank’s intervention not only restored the fiscal and external solvency of the countries in distress, but also revived growth. While these objectives would be fairly easily achieved in Italy, they would not rescue Spain. In fact, even a massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would not pull Spain out of its crisis.

Strong pressure on the ECB

The high level of long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy is stifling their economies. Strong pressure is therefore being put on the ECB to buy large quantities of government bonds issued by these countries, in the hope it will sharply reduce their long-term interest rates. This could be done directly or indirectly, perhaps by transforming the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a bank with funding provided by the ECB.



Massive purchases of government bonds by the ECB: Would the eurozone crisis be ended?

If massive purchases of government bonds by the ECB were to resolve the debt situation in Spain and Italy, the consequential fall in interest rates would need to restore fiscal solvency, restore external solvency and bring back acceptable growth.

Let’s look at these three points now:

1. Fiscal solvency

Fiscal solvency is ensured if the primary budget surplus is greater than the public debt multiplied by the differential between the long-term interest rate and nominal long-run growth.

If long-term interest rates were lowered by ECB interventions to close to the eurozone average, a primary surplus of 4.2 percentage points of GDP would be needed in Italy and 2.8 percentage points of GDP in Spain to ensure fiscal solvency. Italy’s primary surplus is forecast to meet 4% of GDP next year, while Spain’s primary deficit is due to exceed 3%.With lower interest rates Italy would be fiscally solvent in 2013, but by no means would Spain be.

2. External solvency

External solvency is ensured if the primary surplus (excluding interest on external debt) of the current-account balance is greater than the external debt multiplied by the differential between the long-term interest rate and nominal growth.

If the ECB moved long-term interest rates closer to the eurozone average, a primary current-account surplus of 0.8 percentage point of GDP would be needed in Italy, and 3.1 percentage points of GDP in Spain. At present, Italy has a deficit of 1.8 percentage points of GDP, and Spain has a deficit of 2.5 percentage points. As such, with lower interest rates, external solvency would not be guaranteed in Italy, while in Spain, again, the situation is far worse – external solvency would be very far from guaranteed.

3. Growth

The growth prospects are dramatic for Spain and Italy. A fall in long-term interest rates would significantly impact growth in a positive way, but only if the contraction in activity was predominately due to the high level of long-term interest rates. This would be the case if the contraction itself occurred because there was a decline in investment, rather than anything else such as job losses or deleveraging.

While consumption is declining in both countries, the decline in investment is far more dramatic in Spain than in Italy. The sharp decline in investment in Spain can be attributed to the collapse of the construction sector and the need for deleveraging, a problem which is far more acute in Spain than in Italy. As a result, a fall in interest rates would not be sufficient to revive growth in Spain, but would help in Italy.

Conclusion: Would massive purchases of Spanish and Italian government bonds by the ECB stop the eurozone crisis?

In conclusion, if the ECB were to purchase massive amounts of government bonds issued by struggling eurozone countries, a sharp fall in long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy would:

  • restore fiscal solvency in Italy but not in Spain;
  • restore external solvency in neither of the two countries, though the problem is far more serious in Spain than in Italy;
  • revive growth in Italy, but not in Spain where the decline in activity does not stem mostly from high interest rates.

Massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would therefore be decisive for Italy, but much less so for Spain.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

Related News

Related Articles

Related Blogs

Current IssueSpecial Report

Tweets by @DataLend

DataLend is a global securities finance market data provider covering 42,000+ unique securities globally with a total on-loan value of more than $1.8 trillion.

What do our tweets mean? See: http://bit.ly/18YlGjP