Thursday 27th November 2014
NEWS TICKER, WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26TH 2014: According to local press reports, the chief of the UAE stock market regulator wants more industrial companies to list their shares on exchanges dominated by property and investment firms. Abdulla Al Turifi, chief executive of the UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), says the regulator is reviewing applications for initial public offerings of up to four companies to list on the UAE bourses and another three applications for a new secondary market for companies that currently trade only OTC. The UAE is seeking to broaden its industrial base and reduce its reliance on hydrocarbons, but the country’s two main stock exchanges are dominated by property and financial listings. Recent IPOs have come from retail, a sector also previously unrepresented on the exchanges. In February this year, the SCA and the Ministry of Economy issued a law requiring private joint stock companies to list their shares on a second market, in the hope that it would encourage firms to eventually move onto the main board- Moody's has placed the B3 corporate family rating, B3-PD probability of default rating and B1 rating on the senior secured facilities of Reynolds Group Holdings Limited under review for downgrade. The review follows RGHL's announcement that it had entered into a definitive agreement to sell its SIG Combibloc business to Onex Corporation for up to €3.75bn. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2015, pending final regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions - Morocco’s House of Representatives yesterday approved a new law authorising the establishment of Islamic banks and private companies to issue Islamic bonds. Since the Islamist-led government took office in 2011, it has been attempting to develop Islamic finance in the country. The bill was passed unanimously - According to Iran’s Fars News Agency (FNA) Iran’s non-oil exports have grown by 28% since the end of March. Iran’s non-oil exports have surged by 28% since the Persian new year (March 21), Fars News Non-oil export revenues, minus gas condensates, were approximately $18bn this year. Roughly $5bn from the non-oil exports revenues were from tourism (up 32%), though the bulk comes from engineering, workforce and transit services. Some 93% of the country’s non-oil export revenue comes from Asian countries. Imports since the end of March have risen 32% to $21.695bn -IXICO the brain health company, today announces that the contracts for two separate clinical trials in Huntington’s disease with two pharmaceutical companies have been extended. As a consequence, IXICO anticipates the revenue from these two contracts to be significantly enhanced to a potential £2.5m over approximately three years – Any announcement around the sale of Japan Post Holding’s projected IPO now looks to be postponed until January, according to the company’s president Taizo Nishimuro, at a news conference earlier today. In October, the government selected Nomura Securities and ten other underwriters for the initial public offering. The IPO is the first leg of the government's plan to sell up to two-thirds of Japan Post's shares. The government is hoping to raise more than $20bn from the sale - The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed notice to revoke the registrations of Altamont Global Partners LLC (Altamont), a commodity pool operator of Longwood, Florida, and John G. Wilkins a principal, managing member and approximate one-third owner of Altamont. The notice alleges that Altamont and Wilkins are subject to statutory disqualification from CFTC registration based on an order for entry of default judgment and an amended Order of permanent injunction. The orders include findings that Altamont and Wilkins misappropriated commodity pool funds and issued false quarterly statements to pool participants. The notice alleges that Wilkins is subject to statutory disqualification from CFTC registration based on his conviction for conspiracy to commit mail fraud and wire fraud. A US District Court has sentenced Wilkins to 108 months in federal prison - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +0.94 points higher or +0.03% to 3345.93, taking the year-to-date performance to +5.72%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.08% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.08%. The top active stocks were SingTel (+0.26%), Global Logistic (+1.52%), DBS (-0.40%), OCBC Bank (+1.26%) and UOB (-0.42%).The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Consumer Services Index (+0.40%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Consumer Services Index are Jardine Cycle & Carriage (+0.29%) and Genting Singapore (+0.44%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Utilities Index, which declined -0.97% with United Envirotech’s share price declining -0.61% and Hyflux’s share price gaining +1.09%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (+0.78%), SPDR Gold Shares (-0.22%), United SSE 50 China ETF (+2.33%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Suntec REIT (+0.26%), Ascendas REIT (+0.87%), CapitaMall Trust (+0.51%). The most active index warrants by value were HSI23800MBeCW141230 (+20.35%), HSI24400MBeCW141230 (+18.67%), HSI23600MBePW141230 (-20.00%) and the most active stock warrants by value today were OCBC Bk MBeCW150413 (+6.38%), KepCorp MBePW150330 (-5.88%), UOB MB eCW150415 (unchanged) - Sentiment in the Italian consumer sector has taken another step backwards according to the latest figures this month. The Italian Consumer Confidence indicator has now fallen for a seventh straight month to produce a November reading of just 100.8, from a peak above 106.0 this sentiment metric reached 101.3 last month, market expectations for today’s reading were for a slight rise to 101.6. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) yesterday published a less than optimistic report for the near term growth prospects of the Italian economy. The previous OECD report projected growth for Italy of 0.5% over the full 2014 year but this has now been revised downwards by almost a full point to forecast a 2014 contraction of -0.4%.

ECB bond purchases: the case for Spain and Italy

Monday, 13 August 2012 Written by 
ECB bond purchases: the case for Spain and Italy The European Central Bank (ECB) is feeling the pressure to add to its balance sheet massive amounts of sovereign debt from eurozone countries that are in distress. Assuming that the bank was to do so, with the clear objective of sharply reducing those countries' long-term interest rates, it begs the question, would the eurozone crisis then be solved? If we were to consider this in the context of Spain and Italy, we would argue that it could only happen if the bank’s intervention not only restored the fiscal and external solvency of the countries in distress, but also revived growth. While these objectives would be fairly easily achieved in Italy, they would not rescue Spain. In fact, even a massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would not pull Spain out of its crisis. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The European Central Bank (ECB) is feeling the pressure to add to its balance sheet massive amounts of sovereign debt from eurozone countries that are in distress. Assuming that the bank was to do so, with the clear objective of sharply reducing those countries' long-term interest rates, it begs the question, would the eurozone crisis then be solved?

If we were to consider this in the context of Spain and Italy, we would argue that it could only happen if the bank’s intervention not only restored the fiscal and external solvency of the countries in distress, but also revived growth. While these objectives would be fairly easily achieved in Italy, they would not rescue Spain. In fact, even a massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would not pull Spain out of its crisis.

Strong pressure on the ECB

The high level of long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy is stifling their economies. Strong pressure is therefore being put on the ECB to buy large quantities of government bonds issued by these countries, in the hope it will sharply reduce their long-term interest rates. This could be done directly or indirectly, perhaps by transforming the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a bank with funding provided by the ECB.



Massive purchases of government bonds by the ECB: Would the eurozone crisis be ended?

If massive purchases of government bonds by the ECB were to resolve the debt situation in Spain and Italy, the consequential fall in interest rates would need to restore fiscal solvency, restore external solvency and bring back acceptable growth.

Let’s look at these three points now:

1. Fiscal solvency

Fiscal solvency is ensured if the primary budget surplus is greater than the public debt multiplied by the differential between the long-term interest rate and nominal long-run growth.

If long-term interest rates were lowered by ECB interventions to close to the eurozone average, a primary surplus of 4.2 percentage points of GDP would be needed in Italy and 2.8 percentage points of GDP in Spain to ensure fiscal solvency. Italy’s primary surplus is forecast to meet 4% of GDP next year, while Spain’s primary deficit is due to exceed 3%.With lower interest rates Italy would be fiscally solvent in 2013, but by no means would Spain be.

2. External solvency

External solvency is ensured if the primary surplus (excluding interest on external debt) of the current-account balance is greater than the external debt multiplied by the differential between the long-term interest rate and nominal growth.

If the ECB moved long-term interest rates closer to the eurozone average, a primary current-account surplus of 0.8 percentage point of GDP would be needed in Italy, and 3.1 percentage points of GDP in Spain. At present, Italy has a deficit of 1.8 percentage points of GDP, and Spain has a deficit of 2.5 percentage points. As such, with lower interest rates, external solvency would not be guaranteed in Italy, while in Spain, again, the situation is far worse – external solvency would be very far from guaranteed.

3. Growth

The growth prospects are dramatic for Spain and Italy. A fall in long-term interest rates would significantly impact growth in a positive way, but only if the contraction in activity was predominately due to the high level of long-term interest rates. This would be the case if the contraction itself occurred because there was a decline in investment, rather than anything else such as job losses or deleveraging.

While consumption is declining in both countries, the decline in investment is far more dramatic in Spain than in Italy. The sharp decline in investment in Spain can be attributed to the collapse of the construction sector and the need for deleveraging, a problem which is far more acute in Spain than in Italy. As a result, a fall in interest rates would not be sufficient to revive growth in Spain, but would help in Italy.

Conclusion: Would massive purchases of Spanish and Italian government bonds by the ECB stop the eurozone crisis?

In conclusion, if the ECB were to purchase massive amounts of government bonds issued by struggling eurozone countries, a sharp fall in long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy would:

  • restore fiscal solvency in Italy but not in Spain;
  • restore external solvency in neither of the two countries, though the problem is far more serious in Spain than in Italy;
  • revive growth in Italy, but not in Spain where the decline in activity does not stem mostly from high interest rates.

Massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would therefore be decisive for Italy, but much less so for Spain.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

Related News

Related Articles

Tweets by @DataLend

DataLend is a global securities finance market data provider covering 42,000+ unique securities globally with a total on-loan value of more than $1.8 trillion.

What do our tweets mean? See: http://bit.ly/18YlGjP