Thursday 2nd July 2015
NEWS TICKER: THURSDAY, JULY 2nd 2015: Deutsche Börse says a new iShares ETF from BlackRock's product offering has been launched on Xetra and Börse Frankfurt today. The iShares MSCI EMU USD Hedged UCITS ETF launched on Xetra ETF provides access to euro-zone equities with currency hedging against US dollar. The exchange organisation says the ETF enables investors to participate in the performance of stock corporations in the euro zone while also benefiting from currency hedging against the US dollar. This protects investors against an appreciation of the US dollar against the euro. - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 3.3 points or 0.1% lower to 3327.84, taking the year-to-date performance to -1.11%. The top active stocks today were UOB, which gained 0.82%, DBS, which closed unchanged, Singtel, which declined 0.24%, CapitaLand, which declined 1.13% and Global Logistic, with a 0.78% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.06%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.02%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which rose 0.82%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Midas Holdings and NSL- ended 1.59% higher and 0.67% lower respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index, which slipped 0.67%. CapitaLand Mall Trust shares declined 2.30% and Ascendas REIT declined 2.41% - According to Flightglobal, China’s state aviation supplier has tentatively signed for up to 75 Airbus A330s in an agreement which will help bridge a production gap to the re-engined A330neo. General terms of the agreement inlcude an order for 45 jets plus a memorandum of understanding for another 30 options. The deal took place during an official visit to France by Chinese premier Li Keqiang. Airbus has long been negotiating the landmark agreement following a preliminary deal to establish an A330 completion centre in Tianjin. The pact with China Aviation Supplies Holding, which is likely to include several aircraft configured in the lower-weight regional version. Meanwhile, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier says the package is a “new vote of confidence” in the twinjet. “China is today the most important market for aviation in the world,” he adds - Morningstar has upgraded the Royal London UK Equity Income fund to a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Silver. The fund was previously rated Bronze. Experienced manager Martin Cholwill has, over his decade-long tenure on the fund, consistently applied his proven investment process to good effect. His strategy is sensible for delivering yield and competitive total returns for investors, with a focus on free cash flows and valuations. The fund also enjoys a cost advantage over its rivals, with ongoing charges lower than the category norm. These factors have led to a strong and consistent performance profile over a number of years - The amount of outstanding Euro commercial paper (CP) and certificates of deposit (CD) declined significantly in the week ending July 1st, according to CMDPortal data. Outstandings dropped by $11.80bn to $861.59bn during the week. Sovereign, supranational and agency CP outstandings dropped by $2.80bn to $219.44bn. Corporate CP outstandings declined the most during the week by $5.56bn to $89.83bn. Meanwhile financial CP outstandings declined by $3.04bn to $503.37bn - SWIFT says that BTG Pactual, one of Latin America’s largest financial services firms, has joined the Know Your Customer (KYC) Registry, a centralised repository that maintains a standardised set of information about correspondent banks required for KYC compliance. For the KYC Registry, banks contribute an agreed ‘baseline' set of data and documentation for validation by SWIFT, which the contributors can then share with their counterparties. Each bank retains ownership of its own information, as well as control over which other institutions can view it - Laurel Powers-Freeling is to join the board of Atom, the UK’s newest bank, as its senior independent non-executive director. The appointment comes hot on the heels of Atom’s announcement that the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority have approved its digital business model. Powers-Freeling was recently appointed as Chairman of Sumitomo-Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe - China has guaranteed that 100% foreign-owned firms (typically known as WFOEs – Wholly Foreign-Owned Entities) will be able to manufacture and market their own products for sale to mainland clients, operating under exactly the same rules as local private funds. The announcement comes at the end of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which appears to have resulted in unprecedented rights for foreign firms participating in China’s financial markets. Greater access to China’s Interbank Bond (IBB) market has also been granted, with the elimination of firm-level ownership quotas in addition to improved access and operating rights for foreign banks. Finally, Shanghai’s Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has been specified as the testing ground where foreign owners can establish wholly-owned futures companies with access rights to domestic exchanges. China’s opening-up to foreign asset managers is now moving faster than our most optimistic predictions. With that speed in mind, we predict that all of the above opportunities will be available to foreign owners by the end of 2015.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

ECB bond purchases: the case for Spain and Italy

Monday, 13 August 2012 Written by 
ECB bond purchases: the case for Spain and Italy The European Central Bank (ECB) is feeling the pressure to add to its balance sheet massive amounts of sovereign debt from eurozone countries that are in distress. Assuming that the bank was to do so, with the clear objective of sharply reducing those countries' long-term interest rates, it begs the question, would the eurozone crisis then be solved? If we were to consider this in the context of Spain and Italy, we would argue that it could only happen if the bank’s intervention not only restored the fiscal and external solvency of the countries in distress, but also revived growth. While these objectives would be fairly easily achieved in Italy, they would not rescue Spain. In fact, even a massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would not pull Spain out of its crisis. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The European Central Bank (ECB) is feeling the pressure to add to its balance sheet massive amounts of sovereign debt from eurozone countries that are in distress. Assuming that the bank was to do so, with the clear objective of sharply reducing those countries' long-term interest rates, it begs the question, would the eurozone crisis then be solved?

If we were to consider this in the context of Spain and Italy, we would argue that it could only happen if the bank’s intervention not only restored the fiscal and external solvency of the countries in distress, but also revived growth. While these objectives would be fairly easily achieved in Italy, they would not rescue Spain. In fact, even a massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would not pull Spain out of its crisis.

Strong pressure on the ECB

The high level of long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy is stifling their economies. Strong pressure is therefore being put on the ECB to buy large quantities of government bonds issued by these countries, in the hope it will sharply reduce their long-term interest rates. This could be done directly or indirectly, perhaps by transforming the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a bank with funding provided by the ECB.



Massive purchases of government bonds by the ECB: Would the eurozone crisis be ended?

If massive purchases of government bonds by the ECB were to resolve the debt situation in Spain and Italy, the consequential fall in interest rates would need to restore fiscal solvency, restore external solvency and bring back acceptable growth.

Let’s look at these three points now:

1. Fiscal solvency

Fiscal solvency is ensured if the primary budget surplus is greater than the public debt multiplied by the differential between the long-term interest rate and nominal long-run growth.

If long-term interest rates were lowered by ECB interventions to close to the eurozone average, a primary surplus of 4.2 percentage points of GDP would be needed in Italy and 2.8 percentage points of GDP in Spain to ensure fiscal solvency. Italy’s primary surplus is forecast to meet 4% of GDP next year, while Spain’s primary deficit is due to exceed 3%.With lower interest rates Italy would be fiscally solvent in 2013, but by no means would Spain be.

2. External solvency

External solvency is ensured if the primary surplus (excluding interest on external debt) of the current-account balance is greater than the external debt multiplied by the differential between the long-term interest rate and nominal growth.

If the ECB moved long-term interest rates closer to the eurozone average, a primary current-account surplus of 0.8 percentage point of GDP would be needed in Italy, and 3.1 percentage points of GDP in Spain. At present, Italy has a deficit of 1.8 percentage points of GDP, and Spain has a deficit of 2.5 percentage points. As such, with lower interest rates, external solvency would not be guaranteed in Italy, while in Spain, again, the situation is far worse – external solvency would be very far from guaranteed.

3. Growth

The growth prospects are dramatic for Spain and Italy. A fall in long-term interest rates would significantly impact growth in a positive way, but only if the contraction in activity was predominately due to the high level of long-term interest rates. This would be the case if the contraction itself occurred because there was a decline in investment, rather than anything else such as job losses or deleveraging.

While consumption is declining in both countries, the decline in investment is far more dramatic in Spain than in Italy. The sharp decline in investment in Spain can be attributed to the collapse of the construction sector and the need for deleveraging, a problem which is far more acute in Spain than in Italy. As a result, a fall in interest rates would not be sufficient to revive growth in Spain, but would help in Italy.

Conclusion: Would massive purchases of Spanish and Italian government bonds by the ECB stop the eurozone crisis?

In conclusion, if the ECB were to purchase massive amounts of government bonds issued by struggling eurozone countries, a sharp fall in long-term interest rates in Spain and Italy would:

  • restore fiscal solvency in Italy but not in Spain;
  • restore external solvency in neither of the two countries, though the problem is far more serious in Spain than in Italy;
  • revive growth in Italy, but not in Spain where the decline in activity does not stem mostly from high interest rates.

Massive intervention by the ECB in government bond markets would therefore be decisive for Italy, but much less so for Spain.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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