Wednesday 8th July 2015
NEWS TICKER, TUESDAY, JULY 7TH: Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has assigned definitive B2 rating to the €400m senior secured notes issued by Senvion Holding GmbH and guaranteed, among others, by Rapid TopCo GmbH, following a review of the final bond documentation. The corporate family rating (CFR) of B1 and the probability of default rating (PDR) of B1-PD of Rapid TopCo GmbH remain unchanged. The outlook on all the ratings is stable. - Interactive Data, a provider of fixed-income evaluated pricing, will provide hourly snaps from its continuous evaluated pricing feed to Algomi Honeycomb (Algomi). Interactive Data will provide evaluated prices to the Honeycomb platform for high-yield and investment-grade US and European corporate bonds. The data will be available to help Algomi buy-side clients to achieve increased pre-trade transparency and price discovery. “Our goal is to give our clients the ability to access pre-trade price data which can be used to help facilitate trades in increasingly illiquid markets,” said Usman Khan, Chief technology officer and co-founder of Algomi. “Our Honeycomb buy-side clients will have access to Interactive Data’s evaluated prices as an important additional reference point that can be considered when comparing dealer bid and offer levels for execution,” he adds. Interactive Data’s continuous evaluated pricing launched in 2014 against a backdrop of a fast-evolving fixed income market structure characterized by shrinking dealer inventories, reduced liquidity, and a changing broker/dealer landscape. The continued shift to electronic trading platforms requires a supply of independent, high-quality data that allows users to assess quote quality and enhance price discovery, in the absence of traditional protocols. Continuous evaluated pricing facilitates this activity. The provision by Interactive Data of fixed-income evaluated pricing to Algomi is another deal in a succession of agreements with electronic trading and software platforms. - Federated Investors, Inc (NYSE: FII), will report financial and operating results for the quarter ended June 30th after the market closeson Thursday, July 23rd. A conference call for investors and analysts will be held at 9am Eastern on Friday, July 24th. President and chief executive officer J Christopher Donahue and chief financial officer Thomas R Donahue will host the call - Zapp today announces that Barclays has joined the financial institutions, retailers, billers and payment providers offering ‘Pay by Bank app’ mobile payments to consumers. Barclays also plans to offer ‘Pay by Bank app’ payments to customers via their existing mobile banking app later this year. Security first Pay by Bank app transactions are protected by a consumer’s existing bank app security - Singapore Exchange (SGX) reported growth in securities, derivatives and commodities activities in June. Traded value was $25bn, up 20% year on year and up 8% month on month, while daily average value was $1.2bn up 20% from a year earlier and up 8% from a month earlier. ETF trading also rose 30% from a year earlier to $237m while trading of STI stocks accounted for 68% of total trading versus 51% a year earlier. A total 37 bonds raising $12bn were listed in on SGX compared with 45 issues raising $21bn a year earlier - Following a recent Morningstar Analyst Ratings Meeting, Morningstar has moved the Kames UK Equity fund to a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Bronze. The fund was previously rated Silver. Although the fund has a strong long term track record under the current manager, Stephen Adams, returns over the medium term versus peers have been weaker. In addition, the manager has recently taken on additional responsibilities within the group, having been promoted to head of equities. Adams has passed some UK team responsibilities to his colleague Philip Howarth, but has additional non-UK equity responsibilities in his new role. Concerns over these two issues have resulted in the rating change - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 9.79 points or 0.29% lower to 3332.94, taking the year-to-date performance to -0.96%. The top active stocks today were UOB, which declined 0.47%, Singtel, which gained 0.47%, DBS, which gained0.05%, Global Logistic, which declined 0.40% and CapitaLand, with a 0.57% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.45%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined0.68% - Moody's Investors Service today upgraded Europcar Groupe S.A.'s (Europcar or the company) corporate family rating (CFR) to B1 from B3 and probability of default rating (PDR) to B1-PD from B3-PD. Concurrently, Moody's changed the instrument rating on the €475m senior notes due 2022, the obligations of which have been transferred to the company from Europcar Notes Limited after the completion of Europcar Groupe S.A.'s initial public offering (IPO), to definitive B3 from provisional (P)B3 and upgraded EC Finance Plc's instrument rating on the €350m senior secured notes due 2021 to B2 from B3. The outlook on the ratings is stable - CACEIS Bank Luxembourg – London Branch has received regulatory approval to provide depositary services to alternative investment funds. This enables the CACEIS group to provide a full range of depositary and custody services to alternative investment fund managers operating in the UK market. CACEIS has a long history of servicing UK clients, and with this approval, will be able to directly support these clients in their home market.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Target 2 accounts: The equivalent of currency interventions, and a very good indicator of the risk that the euro may break up

Wednesday, 20 June 2012 Written by 
Target 2 accounts: The equivalent of currency interventions, and a very good indicator of the risk that the euro may break up When the Bundesbank’s (Germany's) Target 2 account (which is positive) increases while another euro-zone country’s Target 2 account becomes more negative, this is equivalent to a German currency intervention aimed at stabilising the exchange rate between Germany and this other country, and therefore at preventing a break-up of the euro. In a completely similar manner, when China accumulates foreign exchange reserves in dollars to prevent an appreciation of the RMB, the People's Bank of China accumulates an asset and the United States a liability, and there is monetary creation (in RMB). So the size of the Target 2 accounts of the national central banks in the euro zone corresponds to the size of the foreign exchange reserves that the euro-zone countries with a strong currency have to accumulate to prevent a break-up of the euro; it is therefore a very good indicator of the risk of a break-up. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

When the Bundesbank’s (Germany's) Target 2 account (which is positive) increases while another euro-zone country’s Target 2 account becomes more negative, this is equivalent to a German currency intervention aimed at stabilising the exchange rate between Germany and this other country, and therefore at preventing a break-up of the euro. In a completely similar manner, when China accumulates foreign exchange reserves in dollars to prevent an appreciation of the RMB, the People's Bank of China accumulates an asset and the United States a liability, and there is monetary creation (in RMB). So the size of the Target 2 accounts of the national central banks in the euro zone corresponds to the size of the foreign exchange reserves that the euro-zone countries with a "strong currency" have to accumulate to prevent a break-up of the euro; it is therefore a very good indicator of the risk of a break-up.

The size of the Target 2 accounts held by national central banks in the euro zone

Germany and the Netherlands hold substantial Target 2 assets (respectively EUR 650bn and EUR 140bn), while Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland have substantial Target 2 debts (respectively EUR 98bn, EUR 285bn, EUR 280bn and EUR 117bn).



Fundamentally, these are currency interventions

Let us take, for example, the Germany/Spain pair. If the Bundesbank lends to the Bank of Spain, there is an increase in Germany's positive Target 2 account and in Spain’s negative Target 2 account. This corresponds to a loan from Germany to Spain, or to a purchase of Spanish assets by the German central bank.

If this purchase had not taken place, Spain would be unable to finance its external deficit, and would be forced to pull out of the euro and let its currency depreciate to the point where capital inflows covered its external borrowing requirement.

Therefore, this is the exact equivalent of a currency intervention aimed at ensuring the stability of the exchange rate between Germany and Spain: the country with a "strong currency" buys assets of the country with a "weak currency" to stabilise the exchange rate.

Similarity with the China/United States pair

When China accumulates foreign exchange reserves in dollars to prevent an excessive appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, the People's Bank of China holds US assets and the United States, conversely, has a debt to China.

This operation increases the size of the balance sheet of the People's Bank of China, and therefore leads to monetary creation.

Likewise, when the Bundesbank lends to central banks in the Southern euro-zone countries, and these central banks subsequently lend these funds to the banks in their own countries, there is a creation of monetary base in euros.

Target 2 accounts measure the risk of a break-up of the euro

The size (positive or negative according to the country) of the Target 2 accounts held by the central banks in the euro zone therefore represents the size of the foreign exchange reserves that the euro zone countries with a "strong currency" have to accumulate to ensure the euro’s sustainability ("exchange-rate stability" between euro zone countries). The more the size of these accounts increases, the higher the risk that the euro may break-up.

Positive Target 2 accounts surged from the summer of 2011, and this went hand in hand with a period of pressure on the interest rates on peripheral government bonds and on risk premia on banks.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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