Thursday 2nd July 2015
NEWS TICKER: WEDNESDAY, JULY 1st 2015: at €149.3bn in June (June 2014: €93.7bn). Some €140.1bn is attributable to Xetra (June 2014: €86.2bn). The average daily turnover on Xetra stood at €6.4 billion in June (June 2014: €4.1 bn).A turnover of €4.1bn was attributable to Börse Frankfurt (June 2014: €3.9bn) - Equity trading volumes on the Vienna Stock Exchange amounted to €30.60bn from January to June 2015. This corresponds to an increase of 24 % versus the same period last year. Following particularly lively turnover in March, trading activity has remained strong in subsequent months. The average monthly turnover in the first half-year was around €5.1bn, 28% higher than in the previous year (2014: €3.98bn). Rising prices were not the only factor driving up trading volumes - the number of exchange trades was also up this year from 38.8% (exchange trades executed: HY1 2014: 2.85m; HY1 2015: 3.96m). Austrian companies have raised a volume of €195m in fresh capital through capital increases in the first half of 2015 - Markit (Nasdaq: MRKT), the financial information services provider, says it has completed its acquisition of Information Mosaic, a software provider for corporate actions and post trade securities processing. The Information Mosaic business is being integrated into Markit’s Solutions division and will be led by Paul Taylor, managing director, reporting to Michele Trogni, managing director and cohead of Solutions - Gerry Rice, director of communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today regarding Greece’s financial obligations to the IMF due today: “I confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5bn) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared. I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course.” - Morningstar has downgraded the Neptune European Opportunities fund to a Morningstar Analyst Rating™ of Bronze. The fund previously held a Silver rating. The fund remains a solid choice as an unconstrained European equity offering, boasting a talented and longstanding manager in Rob Burnett. However, the risk-return profile of the fund has deteriorated over recent years as the manager has made a number of ill-timed shifts in the portfolio which have resulted in significant performance variability and heavily weighed on the fund’s three- and five-year risk-adjusted returns. Whilst Morningstar continues to think very well of Burnett and expects investors to benefit from his moves to limit short-term trading and make better use of the risk management tools at his disposal, Morningstar believes a Bronze rating provides a better reflection of the fund’s relative merits – The shares of Cassiopea were traded for the first time under the Main Standard of SIX Swiss Exchange, opening at CHF35.00. This corresponds to a total market capitalisation of around CHF350m - Further to its public offer of up to 1,000,000 Certificates to be issued by Deutsche Bank AG under its X-markets programme, the bank has issued 45,000 securities at a price of U$100 per certificate today. Application has been made for the Securities to be admitted to listing on the official list of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange and to trading on the Euro-MTF market of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 13.81 points or 0.42% higher to 3331.14, taking the year-to-date performance to -1.01%. The top active stocks today were Singtel, which gained 1.19%, SGX, which gained 4.47%, DBS, which declined 0.92%, OCBC Bank, which declined 0.10% and Global Logistic, with a 1.19% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.09%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.14%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index, which rose 1.35%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Hongkong Land Holdings and Global Logistic Properties – ended 2.32% higher and 1.19% lower respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Technology Index, which slipped 1.63%. Silverlake Axis shares declined 3.57% and STATS ChipPAC gained 0.97%.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Target 2 accounts: The equivalent of currency interventions, and a very good indicator of the risk that the euro may break up

Wednesday, 20 June 2012 Written by 
Target 2 accounts: The equivalent of currency interventions, and a very good indicator of the risk that the euro may break up When the Bundesbank’s (Germany's) Target 2 account (which is positive) increases while another euro-zone country’s Target 2 account becomes more negative, this is equivalent to a German currency intervention aimed at stabilising the exchange rate between Germany and this other country, and therefore at preventing a break-up of the euro. In a completely similar manner, when China accumulates foreign exchange reserves in dollars to prevent an appreciation of the RMB, the People's Bank of China accumulates an asset and the United States a liability, and there is monetary creation (in RMB). So the size of the Target 2 accounts of the national central banks in the euro zone corresponds to the size of the foreign exchange reserves that the euro-zone countries with a strong currency have to accumulate to prevent a break-up of the euro; it is therefore a very good indicator of the risk of a break-up. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

When the Bundesbank’s (Germany's) Target 2 account (which is positive) increases while another euro-zone country’s Target 2 account becomes more negative, this is equivalent to a German currency intervention aimed at stabilising the exchange rate between Germany and this other country, and therefore at preventing a break-up of the euro. In a completely similar manner, when China accumulates foreign exchange reserves in dollars to prevent an appreciation of the RMB, the People's Bank of China accumulates an asset and the United States a liability, and there is monetary creation (in RMB). So the size of the Target 2 accounts of the national central banks in the euro zone corresponds to the size of the foreign exchange reserves that the euro-zone countries with a "strong currency" have to accumulate to prevent a break-up of the euro; it is therefore a very good indicator of the risk of a break-up.

The size of the Target 2 accounts held by national central banks in the euro zone

Germany and the Netherlands hold substantial Target 2 assets (respectively EUR 650bn and EUR 140bn), while Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland have substantial Target 2 debts (respectively EUR 98bn, EUR 285bn, EUR 280bn and EUR 117bn).



Fundamentally, these are currency interventions

Let us take, for example, the Germany/Spain pair. If the Bundesbank lends to the Bank of Spain, there is an increase in Germany's positive Target 2 account and in Spain’s negative Target 2 account. This corresponds to a loan from Germany to Spain, or to a purchase of Spanish assets by the German central bank.

If this purchase had not taken place, Spain would be unable to finance its external deficit, and would be forced to pull out of the euro and let its currency depreciate to the point where capital inflows covered its external borrowing requirement.

Therefore, this is the exact equivalent of a currency intervention aimed at ensuring the stability of the exchange rate between Germany and Spain: the country with a "strong currency" buys assets of the country with a "weak currency" to stabilise the exchange rate.

Similarity with the China/United States pair

When China accumulates foreign exchange reserves in dollars to prevent an excessive appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, the People's Bank of China holds US assets and the United States, conversely, has a debt to China.

This operation increases the size of the balance sheet of the People's Bank of China, and therefore leads to monetary creation.

Likewise, when the Bundesbank lends to central banks in the Southern euro-zone countries, and these central banks subsequently lend these funds to the banks in their own countries, there is a creation of monetary base in euros.

Target 2 accounts measure the risk of a break-up of the euro

The size (positive or negative according to the country) of the Target 2 accounts held by the central banks in the euro zone therefore represents the size of the foreign exchange reserves that the euro zone countries with a "strong currency" have to accumulate to ensure the euro’s sustainability ("exchange-rate stability" between euro zone countries). The more the size of these accounts increases, the higher the risk that the euro may break-up.

Positive Target 2 accounts surged from the summer of 2011, and this went hand in hand with a period of pressure on the interest rates on peripheral government bonds and on risk premia on banks.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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