Saturday 25th April 2015
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY, APRIL 24th 2015:Luc Luyet, CIIA – Senior Market Analyst AT Swissquote says that yesterday, “the SNB surprised the market by announcing that the number of sight deposit account holders that are exempt from negative interest has been reduced. This decision doesn’t change much the domestic banks’ situation as the “20 times the minimum reserve requirement” rule is still running. On the other side, the institutions associated with the Confederation, such as the pension fund of the Confederation or the pension fund of the SNB, are no longer exempt of negative interest. Consequently, only the account holders of the national social security system are still fully exempt.” - High yield debt issuance remains buoyant. Issuance volume for the week ending April 17, 2015, slowed down a bit from the previous week, but remained strong. Junk bond, or high-yield debt, issuers continued to issue bonds as yields remained favourable. High-yield debt is tracked by the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF and the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund. According to data from S&P Capital IQ/LCD, dollar-denominated bonds amounting to $10.75bn were issued across 16 transactions in the week ending April 17th. The issuance volume fell by 3.2% from the week ending April 10. Pricing was evenly spread across the week. The number of transactions fell from 18 to 16 week-over-week. Last week brought the total US dollar issuance of high-yield debt to $115.8bn in 2015 YTD, up some 15% from the same period in 2014, the bulk of which is refinancing of older debt - Moody's says EMEA auto ABS performance remained stable during the three-month period ending February 2015. The sector's average performance trend was positive in terms of delinquency ratios and cumulative losses. The 60+ day delinquencies decreased to 0.66% in February 2015 from 0.77% in February 2014, while cumulative defaults decreased to 1.06% from 1.20% over the same period. This decrease was due mainly to the good performance of the German and Dutch markets. The prepayment rate increased slightly to 13.49% in February 2015 from 13.30% a year earlier. As of February 2015, the pool balance of all outstanding rated auto ABS transactions was €27.55bn - According to Sino specialists Red Pulse, China’s State Council is considering allowing daily repatriation for QFII. Currently, RQFII enjoys T+1 repatriation while QFII is restricted to T+5. QFII is the largest channel for foreign investment into China with quota of USD150bn, however, only half of the quota is in use, like at least partly due to the five-day repatriation stipulation - Malaysia’s state pension fund will offer a Shari’a-compliant investment option for its members by 2017, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said today. Najib says it will create the largest Shari’a fund of its kind in the world. Malaysia has one of the world’s largest Islamic finance sectors and the authorities are keen to develop it further. They envision the industry accounting for 40% of the country’s total banking assets by 2020 compared with latest figures of around 23% released last year. The $160bn (MYR577.4bn) Employees Provident Fund (EPF) already invests about a third of its portfolio in stocks and bonds that comply with Islamic principles, which ban interest payments and pure monetary speculation. The fund reportedly hired consultants last year to study the feasibility of a state-backed pension fund focusing entirely on Shari’a-compliant investments. Additionally, local press reports says that Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional has received regulatory approval to issue a MYR1billion (around $275m) socially responsible Islamic bond - The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc has declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share on the company's outstanding common stock, an increase of 67% from the prior $0.15 per share quarterly dividend. The dividend is payable on June 26TH 2015, to shareowners of record at the close of business on June 12TH 2015 - Lazard Ltd today reported operating revenue1 of $581m for the quarter ended March 31st. Adjusted net income was $103m, or $0.77 (diluted) per share for the quarter. These results exclude a pre-tax charge of $63m relating to a debt refinancing2. Q1 2015 net income on a U.S. GAAP basis, including the pre-tax charge, was $56m, or $0.42 (diluted) per share. "Our Financial Advisory and Asset Management businesses continue their strong performance," says Kenneth M. Jacobs, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Lazard. "In the first quarter, we refinanced and repaid a portion of Lazard's long-term debt, significantly reducing our interest costs," adds Matthieu Bucaille, chief financial officer of Lazard. "Consistent with our capital management objectives, we have increased the quarterly dividend by 17%, the fifth increase in as many years." -

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

France needs supply-side policies to stimulate growth

Tuesday, 14 February 2012 Written by 
France needs supply-side policies to stimulate growth France’s ailing economy urgently requires stimulation – and this must come from supply-side policies. Previously buoyed by borrowing, the strength of real estate and an increase in fiscal deficits, France is now suffering from significant economic weaknesses that can only be overcome by a stimulation of supply via institutional, tax and labour market reforms. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

France’s ailing economy urgently requires stimulation – and this must come from supply-side policies. Previously buoyed by borrowing, the strength of real estate and an increase in fiscal deficits, France is now suffering from significant economic weaknesses that can only be overcome by a stimulation of supply via institutional, tax and labour market reforms.

 

The French economy is experiencing a decline in investment, an inability to rebuild exports, continuing market share losses and a rapid rise in unemployment. Although previously bolstered by an increase in private sector indebtedness, growth in residential construction (until 2008), and a temporary increase in fiscal deficits, economic growth has fallen to virtually zero as of the second quarter of 2011.



However, unlike similar situations in Spain and the UK, France’s underperformance is due to a deterioration of supply rather than a decline in demand. Certainly, France’s weak economy cannot be blamed on a rapid correction in the fiscal deficit, nor to a decline in real wages. In fact, there has been a worsening of supply-side conditions since the late 1990s, highlighted by a decline in profitability, the tightening of profit margins (particularly in the industrial sector) and the distortion of income sharing in favour of wages and to the detriment of profits, itself the equivalent to an economy-wide fall in profit margins.

The result is a country where companies are hampered by poor levels of investment. Indeed, the economy has become stuck in a mid-market product range, as portrayed by the sharp drop in French exports caused by an appreciation in the euro. Furthermore, France is exhibiting advanced deindustrialisation (in the past decade both manufacturing employment and manufacturing volume as a proportion of GDP have steadily decreased), weak growth of companies (limiting the number of companies big enough to export) and a high proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) that are prematurely sold to large groups. 

Reforms to restore the economy

Supply-side reforms are urgently required: in particular, tax reform to reduce companies’ welfare contributions, labour market negotiations to take into account both wages and employment, and institutional reforms to encourage the growth of innovative SMEs.

Firstly, France must reduce welfare contributions, especially those paid by companies. It is well known that welfare contributions negatively affect employment. Therefore to boost the supply of goods, and the demand for labour, there needs to be a reduction in government expenditure on wages and welfare benefits, or (as happened in Germany and the UK in 2007 and 2011 respectively) an increase in VAT.

Secondly, the country’s labour market lacks a corrective force in periods of rising unemployment. Current pay talks are purely wage-based and do not take into account the need to reduce unemployment and create new jobs. The result is that increasing unemployment does not have a significant impact on wages and therefore unemployment levels can remain high for long periods without reducing wages.

Therefore the government needs to ensure that pay talks involve both wages and jobs, in order to create a trade-off between wage increases and job creation. Certainly, the close link between unemployment and wage increases can be seen in Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK – a labour market scenario that France must replicate.

Finally, institutional reforms are needed to boost SME growth. France’s already weak export levels are compounded by the low proportion of companies big enough to export their goods. In order to stimulate growth among SMEs, France should create a Small Business Act and Small Business Administration to improve relationships between large groups and their subcontractors, simplify administrative paperwork and improve cooperation between companies and the education system.

Going forward

In the short term, these reforms (government spending cuts, a VAT hike, reduction in wages in exchange for additional jobs, etc.) would inevitably lead to a fall in demand. But the current view – that the solution to the economy’s woes lies in stimulating demand – must be abandoned in favour of supply-side policies if a recovery is to be achieved. 

The acute question remains in play: Is there a political party ready to carry out this programme after the presidential elections?

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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