Monday 20th April 2015
NEWS TICKER FRIDAY APRIL 17TH 2015: -On June 9, 2015, the Federal Trade Commission will host a workshop to examine competition, consumer protection, and economic issues raised by the proliferation of online and mobile peer-to peer business platforms in certain sectors of the economy, often referred to as the “sharing economy.” The workshop will take place in Washington, D.C., at the FTC’s Constitution Center conference space. Peer-to-peer platforms, which enable suppliers and consumers to connect and do business, have led to the emergence of new business models in industries that have been subject to regulation. The FTC’s sharing economy workshop will explore how regulatory frameworks can accommodate new sharing economy business models while maintaining appropriate consumer protections and a competitive marketplace. “We are seeing a dramatic growth in products and services that are built on peer-to-peer platforms, such as ride-sharing and property rentals, as more entrepreneurs harness the power of technology to reach more consumers,” says FTC Chairwoman Edith Ramirez. “The resulting business models have great potential to benefit our economy and consumers. Through our workshop, we want to better understand the competitive impact of these new business models, as well as their interactions with existing regulatory frameworks.” - he Straits Times Index (STI) ended 6.42 points or 0.18% lower to 3525.19, taking the year-to-date performance to +4.76%. The top active stocks today were Keppel Corp, which declined 2.01%, DBS, which gained 0.91%, SingTel, which gained 0.23%, UOB, which gained 0.38% and ComfortDelGro, with a 1.70% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index fell 0.30%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.06%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Utilities Index, which rose 1.60%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - United Envirotech and Hyflux – ended 5.12% higher and 2.09% lower respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which slipped 1.82%. Midas Holdings shares declined 2.56% and Geo Energy Resources remained unchanged - It has been a testing day in the markets, with most stock markets reporting substantial losses. The spectre of another crisis in Greece as the IMF talked tough on the country adhering to its repayment schedule, a terminal outage at Bloomberg and a clampdown on OTC and short selling in China combined to test investor sentiment. The FTSE 100, fell briefly below 7000 to end up finding support at 7007; however Spain's Ibex and Italy's FTSE MIB were both 2% down while the German DAX 30 slid 1.8% and France's CAC 40 fell 1.2% - The outage impacted the UK DMO’s offer of £300m 1 month bill, due 18-May-2015(ISIN GB00BDNKWT09); the £1,000m 3-months bill due 20-Jul-2015 (ISIN GB00BDNLZ833), and the £1,500m 6-months bill due 19-Oct-2015 (ISIN GB00BDNNDG38) was conducted between midday and14.30 today. Any bids submitted in the aborted operation earlier this morning were deemed null and void - Catastrophe bond issuance is forecast to have risen almost 30% so far this year, though the size of the market remains modest. The increase in demand for cat bonds means that some bonds are now trading at a discount to their original issue price for the first time in years. Issuance for the year through to mid-April is predicted to be up 27% on 2014, at around $2.1bn, The full-year trend also looks positive, following on from a record cat bond issuance of $8.4bn in 2014 - Moody's Investors Service has described in detail the approach it takes to allocating expected credit losses across the various classes of debt issued by banks in the US, the EU and Switzerland. The liability hierarchy or "waterfall" that Moody's employs to allocate estimated losses to debt classes in these three jurisdictions incorporates the implications of key structural differences in their bank resolution and bail-in frameworks. In this way, the liability hierarchy aims to capture the prioritisation authorities will give different debt classes when apportioning losses to creditors in the event of a bank's failure. The construction of a given bank's liability structure at failure serves as the starting point of Moody's Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, instituted as part of its new bank rating methodology. The LGF framework is used to assess and differentiate creditor risk across banks' liability structures, as detailed in Moody's report "How Resolution Frameworks Drive Our Creditor Hierarchies." The bank resolution and bail-in frameworks in the US, EU, and Switzerland all aim to limit the use of public funds in bank resolutions while mitigating risks to financial stability. Important differences in these frameworks include the degree of power authorities have to write down or convert capital instruments, differences in depositor preference, and variations in the obligations of holding companies to their operating companies - Close Brothers has reportedly acquired advisory firm Mackay Stewart & Brown for an undisclosed amount. Andy Cumming, head of advice at Close Brothers Asset Management, said the acquisition would strengthen the national advice firm’s Scottish operation.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

France’s industrial crisis: predictable and set to last

Friday, 03 August 2012 Written by 
France’s industrial crisis: predictable and set to last France’s industrial sector is in the midst of a steadily worsening crisis. There has been a decline in production, employment and productive investment, the external deficit remains significant, and export market shares are declining rapidly. We would argue that this situation was foreseeable, particularly if we add up issues with supply, domestic and external demand, and the impact of the eurozone crisis. Unfortunately, not a lot can be done about the weakness of demand, and the remedies to the supply problem are difficult to implement rapidly. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

France’s industrial sector is in the midst of a steadily worsening crisis. There has been a decline in production, employment and productive investment, the external deficit remains significant, and export market shares are declining rapidly.

We would argue that this situation was foreseeable, particularly if we add up issues with supply, domestic and external demand, and the impact of the eurozone crisis. Unfortunately, not a lot can be done about the weakness of demand, and the remedies to the supply problem are difficult to implement rapidly.

Let’s go through these issues, their causes and their implications.

Cause no. 1: The supply problem



Supply conditions for goods and services continue to deteriorate in France. The low profitability of companies discourages investment hence the production capacity of French industry is on the decline.

Since 2001, French industry sales prices have been falling relative to unit wage costs. Such falls reflect the excessive level of unit wage costs compared to the sophistication of industrial production in France. The downmarket nature of French industrial production prevents an increase in its selling prices, because of the high level of the price elasticity of demand for industrial products made in France: 0.9 versus 0.3 in Germany.

However, the rise in the unit wage cost – relative to selling prices – does not come as a result of the trend in productivity, but what has been happening to wages. This is because the level of costs is pushed up by the level of employers’ welfare contributions.

The subsequent fall in French industry’s profitability is substantial, reducing its capacity to invest and create jobs. This leads to the off-shoring of production capacity to countries where industrial profitability is higher, thereby weakening industry financially and threatening it with a serious crisis in the event of a recession and falling demand.

Cause no. 2: The demand problem

Between 2011 and 2012, French industry suffered from the weakness of both domestic and external demand. This resulted in a lower capacity utilisation rate than normal, which makes the problem of low profitability even more detrimental. And the decline in demand may deteriorate further if there is a fall in real wage incomes and government expenditure.

Cause no. 3: The euro-zone crisis

The eurozone crisis has two negative effects on French industry:

  1. it weakens demand and therefore imports in the eurozone countries that usually would have been France’s customers. This is significant because the eurozone accounts for 46% of French exports – the United Kingdom, which is also mired in a recession, accounts for 6%;
  2. it reduces domestic demand and capacity utilisation rates in Spain and Portugal and persuades industrial companies in these countries to turn to exports. As wage costs are lower in these countries, there is an increase in the competition that has a direct impact on French industry. France’s export market share tends to decline, whereas those of PortugalSpain and Ireland have recovered.

Remedies are very difficult to implement

Of the three issues mentioned, weakness of demand and the effects of the eurozone crisis cannot be controlled, particularly in a situation where there is private-sector deleveraging and a reduction in fiscal deficits. The question for French industry is therefore which remedies can be implemented on the supply side? We have put together the following list of possible measures:

 

  • an improvement in the sophistication of industrial production and in the differentiation of products, which will require innovation, investments, and marketing;
  • increased geographical diversification in companies' sales to increase the weight of emerging countries, which is currently quite low in France;
  • a major reform of the financing of social welfare in France to reduce the weight of welfare contributions paid by companies;
  • a fall in the hourly labour cost, either through a fall in the per capita wage, or through an increase in the number of hours worked (which is obviously a source of conflict).

 

However, these measures are all very difficult to implement rapidly.

It is also important to understand the major fragility of companies that are not very profitable (i.e. they have a shortfall in supply) when they are faced with a significant and lasting decline in demand.

Unfortunately, it looks as though this French industry crisis is not going to go away any time soon.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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