Monday 30th March 2015
NEWS TICKER: MONDAY MARCH 30th 2015 : Capital Intelligence (CI) has affirmed Bahrain's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Ratings of 'BBB' and its Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency Ratings of 'A2'. The Outlook for Bahrain's ratings was revised to 'Negative' from 'Stable'.Deterioration in the public finances in view of the country's dependence on declining oil revenues, in addition to continued increase in debt levels. b) Deterioration in current account position in view of the decline in the value of oil exports, which limits the country's shock absorption capacity. Reflecting rising public expenditure and declining international oil prices, the budget deficit is expected to have doubled to 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2014 and is on course to exceed 12 per cent in the coming years, assuming no change in key policies and an average oil price of $50 per barrel in 2015-16. The central government budget structure remains weak in view of the lack of diversification of government revenue (oil accounts for around 88 per cent of central government revenue), and the absence of fiscal consolidation measures in view of the polarised political climate. Spurred by growing deficit, central government debt level continued its increase reaching 47.1 per cent of GDP in 2014, compared to as low as 21.4 per cent of GDP in 2009, while it is expected to top 69.2 per cent of GDP in 2016. Gross financing needs are also expected to increase to a still manageable level of 18.5 per cent of GDP in 2016, compared to 7.5 per cent of GDP in 2013 - French operator Bouygues Telecom says it will roll out one of the first implementations of LoRa low-power WAN technology, designed specifically to support the Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity, in France by June. The underlying technology was developed by French company Cycleo. The purpose of an IoT-specific wireless networking technology is primarily to be as low-power as possible. Many IoT implementations will be industrial, embedded use-cases where replacing power sources is expensive and impractical. Bouygues has been trialling LoRa in Grenoble since 2013 and expects 500 towns and cities to be covered by year end. KPN, Swisscom, Belgacom and Fastnet are also reported to be ready to deploy LoRa networks or carrying out large-scale trials. “The Internet of Things is going to transform entire areas of our economy, says Olivier Roussat, Chairman and CEO of Bouygues Telecom in an official statement - Moody's has today assigned a Baa2 long-term rating to the new hybrid securities issued by Bayer AG. The rating outlook is stable. The rating of Baa2 is two notches below Bayer's A3 senior unsecured rating. This reflects the deeply subordinated ranking of the new hybrid securities in relation to the existing senior unsecured obligations of Bayer or those issued by its subsidiaries and guaranteed by Bayer. The new hybrid securities will be senior to common shares - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +4.16 points higher or +0.12% to 3454.26, taking the year-to-date performance to +2.65%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.10% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.03%. The top active stocks were SingTel (-1.13%), UOB (-0.13%), DBS (+0.30%), Global Logistic (+0.76%) and CapitaLand (+1.39%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index (+0.89%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index are Wilmar International (-0.61%) and Thai Beverage (+3.36%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index, which declined -1.05% with SingTel’s share price declining -1.13% and StarHub’s share price declining-0.23%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the DBXT S&P/ASX 200 ETF (unchanged), STI ETF (unchanged), DBXT FTSE Vietnam ETF (+1.19%) – The Singapore Exchange (SGX) says that UOB Bullion and Futures Limited (UOBBF) has joined as a trading member of its securities market. Chew Sutat, head of sales and clients, SGX says the membership enables UOBBF to offer “another product class to their regional clients, thus adding to liquidity in the securities market. We also look forward to working with UOBBF to bring their existing derivatives customers to all our markets. As an SGX Securities Trading Member, UOBBF will be able to offer equity trading services to institutional clients, and accredited and expert investors. SGX now has 27 trading members and 26 clearing members - Taking their cue from the positive tone in Wall Street on Friday, major Asian equity markets were firmer today favoured by market expectations for the adoption of further policy stimulus by Chinese authorities to support domestic economic activity. Elsewhere, US Treasuries were modestly firmer in early trade on Monday while the FOMC Chairman’s mildly hawkish remarks assisted the USD to move higher says Eurobank’s mid-morning markets review. According to the bank discussions between Greek authorities and the Brussels Group on a fully-costed list of reforms the Greek side submitted late last week are reportedly expected to continue on Monday for the third consecutive day. Local press reports suggested today that a number of issues still remain open. On the latter, local newswires quoted an unnamed high level euro area official as saying that the Euro Working Group will likely assess Greece’s reform proposals later this week (reportedly on Wednesday) but euro area finance ministers are not expected to convene before all the details are ironed out. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has reportedly requested an extraordinary plenary session to be held today at 8pm Greek time to inform the Hellenic Parliament about the progress of ongoing discussions with the Institutions - Standard & Poor's revised last Friday the outlook on the Republic of Cyprus sovereign credit rating to positive from stable, affirming the country's B+/B long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings - Nearly two thirds (61%) of small and medium sized companies who are yet to undertake auto enrolment say they would welcome the publication of a definitive list of pension providers that accept all firms - regardless of size - to help them comply with their auto enrolment duties, according to new research* by workplace pensions provider NOW: Pensions. Of the SMEs surveyed who are yet to stage, two thirds (66%) don’t have any existing pension arrangements for their staff while 8% have a stakeholder pension scheme set up but don’t have any members of staff in it. A quarter already offer a scheme to a proportion of their workforce. When it comes to selecting a pension provider for auto enrolment, over a quarter (27%) of those who are yet to stage still say they haven’t given any thought to how they’ll go about finding a pension provider, down from 44% in 2014**. One in ten (12%) are going to search the market and do the research themselves, up from just 4% of those firms surveyed in 2014. When it comes to seeking external advice, over a quarter (26%) intend to get help from their accountant up from 14% in 2014. One in six (16%) intend to rely on their existing provider, down from 22% in 2014. Just 6% plan to speak to a financial adviser up from 5% in 2014. Morten Nilsson, CEO of NOW: Pensions said: “As smaller companies begin to tackle auto enrolment, the number planning on choosing their pension provider without any advice is inevitably going to grow. “This is why The Pensions Regulator’s (TPR) decision earlier this month not to publish a list of pensions schemes that are directly available to any employer, was so disappointing. The reality is these firms urgently need help to find high quality, low cost providers that are willing to accept their business, and the regulator needs to hear their pleas before it is too late.” - Harkand has secured a multi-million pound contract with Maersk Oil North Sea Ltd for the provision of DSV services in the North Sea region. The 12-month contract will be serviced by Harkand’s two DSVs, the Harkand Da Vinci and Harkand Atlantis, supported by project management and engineering from the firm’s Aberdeen office. The contract covers well tie-ins, structure installation, piling, flexible flow line lay, flexible riser installation, pre-commissioning, riser recovery, decommissioning and general inspection, repair and maintenance (IRM) work. Harkand Europe managing director, David Kerr explains, “This contract win is a further acknowledgment, not only of the expertise and capacity we have built up within the region, but also the open culture that we have at Harkand. We look forward to delivering a consistent and cost efficient service to Maersk, which is especially critical in today’s business environment. By utilising both our sister DSVs, we will provide a robust and fully flexible approach to executing both planned and unplanned interventions and we will work closely with Maersk to ensure safe and successful campaigns.” The Harkand DaVinci and Harkand Atlantis are both equipped with state-of-the-art saturation diving systems, 140t active heave compensated cranes and Super Mohawk ROV spreads -Alcatel-Lucent has announced a partnership with China Telecom to roll out the operator’s FDD-LTE services to 40 additional cities across 12 Chinese provinces. The French infrastructure vendor said it is one of three suppliers to have been chosen by the telco, and will provide its LTE mobile ultra-broadband access technology to complete the project.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

The Calculation for Spain

Tuesday, 31 July 2012 Written by 
The Calculation for Spain To alleviate its debt and escape its state of crisis, we think Spain has two strategies to choose from. The first one, already in place since 2009, involves a reduction in the fiscal and external deficits while accepting aid from other eurozone countries. If Spain were to continue with this strategy, it would need to incorporate regular debt purchases by the ECB and possibly the ESM, and provide assistance to recapitalise its banks. The second strategy would be to leave the euro, which would mean a default on its gross external debt and a sharp devaluation of its currency. Both of these strategies contain negatives that need to be considered: the question is, which one would be the least detrimental to the country’s economic future? http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

To alleviate its debt and escape its state of crisis, we think Spain has two strategies to choose from. The first one, already in place since 2009, involves a reduction in the fiscal and external deficits while accepting aid from other eurozone countries. If Spain were to continue with this strategy, it would need to incorporate regular debt purchases by the ECB and possibly the ESM, and provide assistance to recapitalise its banks.

The second strategy would be to leave the euro, which would mean a default on its gross external debt and a sharp devaluation of its currency.

Both of these strategies contain negatives that need to be considered: the question is, which one would be the least detrimental to the country’s economic future?

Strategy One: Spain's present strategy of adjustment...A Catch-22 situation?

Spain’s high levels of external debt mean it cannot increase its external borrowing (except for emergency borrowing from the EU or the ECB). Therefore, it must balance its current account.



Its present strategy of adjustment is clear: a restrictive fiscal policy; an improvement in cost-competitiveness to rebalance foreign trade; and the acceptance of European aid to recapitalise banks in distress. The last action hinges on purchases of government bonds to push down long-term interest rates. However, this strategy is risky.

A scenario may help us better understand this strategy: a fall in real wages due to price-stickiness discourages household demand, which has a knock-on effect to make business investment decline. Hence, there is a major decline in domestic demand and activity, making it very difficult to reduce fiscal deficit. In early 2012 we saw this in action when Spain’s fiscal deficit widened considerably, due both to tax revenue short-falls and higher-than-expected government spending. A continuation of this strategy therefore may lead to a further increase in unemployment and a decline in activity.

There could also be a reduction in the external deficit due to the decline in purchasing power. That said, imports would have to be reduced by a further 20% for Spain's current account deficit to disappear, which would mean a decline of at least 12% in domestic demand and real income.

The only hope for this strategy is that improvements in cost-competitiveness could increase Spain's exports and market share, and improved profits could eventually increase business investment.

Strategy Two: Exit from the euro, default and devaluation...A possible solution or suicide?

The other strategy would be for Spain to leave the euro, sharply devalue its currency, and inevitably default on its gross external public and private debt. This would obviously be a big problem for Spanish multinational companies, given the size of debt and the impossibility of servicing it following devaluation.

But what would the likely consequences of this strategy be?

For a start, it requires an immediate rebalancing of foreign trade. The country could no longer borrow, which would result in a much weaker economic situation in the short term.

Our econometric estimate shows elasticity to the real exchange rate of 0.73 for Spain's exports and 0 for imports, in volume terms. If we assume 30% devaluation, the foreign trade gain in volume terms would be 7.7 percentage points of GDP, which is very substantial.

Devaluation would increase the price of imports and therefore reduce real income by about 5.9 percentage points, which would leave a net gain of approximately 2 percentage points of GDP.

When the Spanish peseta was devalued in the early 1990s (twice in 1992, once in 1993), the current account deficit disappeared in 18 months, exports accelerated strongly, while domestic inflation reacted only slightly to the rise in import prices. The decline in GDP only lasted one year, and from that point growth was strong because of falling interest rates.

In today’s instance, devaluation would also increase the competitiveness of tourism and increase the surplus for these services in local currency, though perhaps not in foreign currencies such as the euro.

As financing becomes completely domestic, it is not impossible that there could be a reduction in the sovereign risk premium.

Devaluation could subsequently attract direct investment by businesses. With 30% devaluation, for example, labour costs in Spain would fall to EUR 14 per hour, 60% less than in Germany. However, since the size of Spanish industry is relatively small, new activities need to be considered for it to generate a large surplus.

Conclusion: What strategy to choose for Spain?

If the improvement in Spain's cost-competitiveness and profitability does not produce quick results, the present strategy will fail: wages would have to be reduced on a greater scale to eliminate the external deficit, and the fiscal deficit would remain very high.

The other strategy (leaving the euro, devaluation and default) could be successful if the devaluation attracted new activities, but it involves a lot of uncertainties – such as the impacts on Spanish multinationals, interest rates and foreign trade.

As stated earlier, both strategies are rather bleak, but positive aspects are still evident. Considering all of the factors, we believe that the strategy of devaluation and default could be the most efficient, particularly due to the high price elasticity of exports and the fact that Spain's entire current account deficit is accounted for by the interest on its external debt. As in 1992, it could also be effective due to the domestic financing of fiscal deficits, which will prevent a rise in interest rates.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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