Friday 27th March 2015
NEWS TICKER, FRIDAY MARCH 27th 2015: Moody's says that The Link Real Estate Investment Trust's (A2 stable) acquisition of the mid-end positioned EC Mall in Beijing is credit negative, but has no immediate impact on its ratings. The acquisition, while immediate EBITDA and cash flow accretive, will reduce liquidity and increase debt leverage, as measured by gross debt to EBITDA. This is Link's first venture into the Chinese retail market. Yesterday, Link announced that it will acquire EC Mall for a total consideration of RMB2.5bn. The transaction will close on April 1st - The outcomes of the March 19th-20th spring European Council will be debated with European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at 15.00 today. Agenda items at the Council include Energy Union, the EU’s economic situation, its eastern partnership, and the situation in Libya - -- The sharp fall in oil prices will have a positive, yet limited credit impact for most European asset-backed securities (ABS) collateralised by loans granted to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), says Moody's Investors Service in a sector comment published today. "If we balance both direct and indirect exposures to the oil and gas sectors, which affect performance the most, the net effect is slightly positive," says Monica Curti, a Moody's Vice President and author of the report. The rating agency observes that securitised portfolios have very low direct exposure to the oil and gas industries, for which lower prices are credit negative. For pools where borrowers are indirectly exposed to these sectors, Moody’s says the oil price decline will be slightly positive in terms of credit performance due to its strong positive effect on sectors such as airlines, shipping and packaged food, which represent up to 12% of some European ABS SME portfolios. However, for over 60% of the ABS SME transactions that Moody's studied, the net effect of oil price exposures is negligible. In addition, the general positive effect of the oil price decline on economic growth will be mild. "While sustained lower oil prices would significantly boost economic growth in principle, their positive effect will be mild for European SMEs because of the euro area's low dependency on oil and the fact that oil prices have fallen in a subdued economy," says Ariel Weil, a Moody's vice president and co-author of the report - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +5.76 points higher or +0.17% to 3419.02, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.60%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.38% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.48%. The top active stocks were SingTel (+0.70%), UOB (+0.61%), DBS (-0.05%), Keppel Corp (+1.13%) and OCBC Bank (+0.29%). Outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Utilities Index (+3.48%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Utilities Index are United Envirotech (+0.31%) and Hyflux (+1.14%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index, which declined -0.33% with Hongkong Land Holdings’ share price declining -0.94% and Global Logistic Properties’ share price gaining +0.78%. – Reuters reports that Chicago-based CME Group had planned to debut an EU wheat-futures contract by the end of next month, but it has yet to reach agreements with local companies to guarantee sufficient deliverable capacity. Eric Hasham, senior director, CME Group is quoted as saying: "If for whatever reasons the parties that we are speaking to decide not to move forward ... we would not be making the contract available.” - Nigeria and Ivory Coast are looking to emulate Senegal's successful move into the market for Islamic bonds or sukuk, the head of the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) has said. Earlier this month the ICD, which is the private sector arm of the Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank Group, signed an agreement with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to cooperate in the development of the private sector in ICD member countries in Africa - Turkey received foreign direct investment worth $1.8bn in January, according to Turkey’s Economy Ministry. The energy sector was the largest recipient of international capital during the month with $735m worth of inflows. Foreign investment to the county increased by 44% in the first month of 2015 compared with the same month in the previous year, said the statement. Around a quarter of the investment came from European countries, a significant decrease (-76%) compared with January 2014. More than $420m in investments came from Asian countries, such as China and Malaysia. There were 175 new, foreign-funded companies established in the first month of the year, down from 410 in the same month of 2014. A total of 41,699 companies were operating in Turkey with international capital as of January 2015, with 24,612 of them operating in Turkey’s largest province, Istanbul, the ministry said. The report also said that of the total number of foreign-funded companies in Turkey, 6,054 were German-funded and 2,774 were financed by the United Kingdom. Turkey received a total of $12.4bn in foreign direct investment in 2014, down 1.7% compared with 2013.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

The core reason for asymmetry between the German and French economies: corporate profitability

Friday, 25 May 2012 Written by 
The core reason for asymmetry between the German and French economies: corporate profitability The main explanation for asymmetry between the French and German economies is that in France, companies’ production capacity is unable to keep up with domestic demand, whereas in Germany it is growing faster than domestic demand. This difference is related to corporate profitability: high and rising in Germany, but low and falling in France, which is limiting French companies’ investment capacity. There are two plausible causes for the profitability gap between German and French companies: the higher level of product sophistication and diversification that gives more pricing power to German companies; and the nature of labour market negotiations, where the link between the labour market and the economy is much stronger in Germany than in France. Yet – if no new economic policies are introduced to improve the profitability of French companies – it is more than likely that the country’s economic situation will not improve. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The main explanation for asymmetry between the French and German economies is that in France, companies’ production capacity is unable to keep up with domestic demand, whereas in Germany it is growing faster than domestic demand. This difference is related to corporate profitability: high and rising in Germany, but low and falling in France, which is limiting French companies’ investment capacity. There are two plausible causes for the profitability gap between German and French companies: the higher level of product sophistication and diversification that gives more pricing power to German companies; and the nature of labour market negotiations, where the link between the labour market and the economy is much stronger in Germany than in France. Yet – if no new economic policies are introduced to improve the profitability of French companies – it is more than likely that the country’s economic situation will not improve.

The economic asymmetry between France and Germany

The main reason for economic asymmetry between France and Germany, which also explains the differences between their current account balance situations, is the ability of companies to build up production capacity to meet domestic demand.



Indeed, domestic demand in France has increased much faster than GDP meaning that its inability to meet excess demand through domestic production has cost them potential economic growth. And its production capacity for industrial products in particular has been unable to keep up with domestic demand. This is in stark contrast to Germany, however, where domestic demand is actually weak relative to supply.

The role of corporate profitability

A key explanation for the differences between German and French companies’ investment capacity is corporate profitability, particularly in the manufacturing industry. Indeed, corporate profitability has been growing in Germany but declining in France since 2000. This is because, unlike in Germany, French companies are faced with cost increases that exceed price increases, particularly in the industrial sector. Furthermore, French companies have been unable to pass on increases in production costs to consumers, explaining the long-run decline in profitability since 2001.

Indeed, the low profitability of French companies is an obstacle to investment that German companies are not lumbered with. Furthermore, German firms’ self-financing rate (the ratio of savings to fixed capital) essentially exceeds 100%, explaining why there is a faster rate of productive investment in Germany. Meanwhile, the greater capacity for investment in Germany will be amplified if it becomes more difficult to obtain credit, which is likely to be the case in France due to the impact of new prudential rules for banks.

Causes of low corporate profitability in France

There are two major causes for French companies’ poorer profitability:

1. Less sophisticated industrial products

The fact that French industrial companies are unable to pass increases in production costs on to consumers shows their weak pricing power and the low level of product sophistication. Demand for French products is therefore price sensitive, which is not the case for German products, and explains why France’s export market share fell when the euro appreciated between 2002 and 2008 yet Germany’s did not. Meanwhile, it could also be said that France is stuck in a vicious circle: the low product sophistication of French companies reduces their profitability, which reduces their ability to invest and enhance the quality of their products.

2. The nature of labour market negotiations

The rise in unemployment and the weakness of activity has caused a significant slowdown in wage growth in Germany. However, this has not occurred in France, where wages have been less sensitive to the performance of the economy. Since wage costs remain high, it is more difficult for French companies to enhance corporate profitability after periods of weak growth.

Indeed, profitability remained low in France from 2003 to 2007 and from 2010 to 2012, yet improved in Germany. So labour market negotiations in France seem to favour "insiders" (employees who have kept their jobs) instead of encouraging firms to hire new staff. But in Germany it is easier to negotiate the wages of existing employees and therefore to recruit new staff.

Which economic policy approaches should be used in France in order to address these issues?

Government policy should seek to boost corporate profitability by:

  • Lowering labour costs to restore profit margins for French companies and to boost investment. This can be achieved through tax reforms that reduce the weight of welfare contributions;
  • Helping French companies to invest more despite their low self-financing rate. This could include government intervention such as public-sector funding or loans via state-owned banks, as well as through the development of a large corporate bond market;
  • Helping companies to improve product sophistication through government research grants, government contracts for technological products, and offering support for new industries: digital, energy, etc.;
  • And finally, by changing the nature of negotiations between unions and employers in France to ensure the employment component is taken into account in negotiations.
Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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