Wednesday 6th May 2015
NEWS TICKER: WEDNESDAY, MAY 6TH 2015: According to Mineweb, silver prices on average will decline 14% this year as speculation over US interest rates spurs a shift to alternative assets. Silver will drop to $16.50 an ounce from the average fixing price of $19.08 in 2014, Andrew Leyland, manager of precious- metal demand at Thomson Reuters GFMS, told Mineweb in advance of Thomson Reuters'World Silver Survey 2015 on behalf of the Washington-based Silver Institute. Silver futures fell 2.7% last month - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release its Q1 2015 Household Debt and Credit Report Tuesday, May 12 at 11:00 am. The Household Debt and Credit Report offers an updated snapshot of household trends in borrowing and indebtedness, including data about mortgages, student loans, credit cards, auto loans and delinquencies. In conjunction with the report, the New York Fed will also release a blog post that details the change in debt by credit score and age group - Moody's has assigned a limited default (/LD) designation to DTEK ENERGY BV's (DTEK) Ca-PD probability of default rating (PDR). At the same time, Moody's has affirmed DTEK's Ca corporate family rating (CFR), as well as the Ca rating of DTEK Finance Plc's $750m 7.875% notes due April 4th 2018. The change of the PDR to Ca-PD/LD follows the completion of the exchange of DTEK Finance BV's $200m 9.5% notes on the notes' maturity date April 28th. The transaction was effected pursuant to a UK Scheme of Arrangement. The notes were exchanged into new $160m 10.375% notes due 28 March 2018, issued by DTEK Finance Plc for this purpose, and $44.9m of cash, including an early exchange offer acceptance fee, which was paid to note holders on April 28th. The Ca rating of DTEK Finance B.V.'s exchanged notes was withdrawn. Moody's expects to remove the "/LD" suffix after approximately three business days. The outlook on all ratings remains negative - A major new campaign ‘World of Talent in Ireland’ was today launched by the American Chamber of Commerce Ireland and IDA Ireland. The campaign will initially target Ireland’s global graduate community, highlighting abroad the career opportunities that now exist in Ireland, with a view to attracting talent here. Speaking on the launch of the campaign Mark Redmond, Chief Executive of the American Chamber said “For Ireland to continue to grow its economy it will be essential that we attract the best and the brightest talent from across the world. This campaign is about reaching out to anyone who attended college here and therefore has an affinity with Ireland but is currently living and working elsewhere. We want to ensure that they know the great career opportunities that now exist here and how they can avail of them” - Idinvest Partners, the European private equity firm specialising in SMEs, has announced the final closing of its Idinvest Digital Fund II at €140m. The fund is entirely dedicated to financing the growth of developing businesses in the digital and new technology segments (web-based, media, mobile, e-commerce services and software) in France and across Europe. The fund has invested in ten companies so far, including Sigfox, Synthesio and Twenga; 30% of the capital has been called in and the fund is already delivering positive returns. The fund has also gathered prominent investors, such as Bpifrance and Idinvest’s historical partner, Allianz France, who are topping the list. Besides these, there is also a large number of insurance companies, banks, family offices and leading industry players and corporates, such as Lagardère and Up groups - According to local press reports, Botswana’s largest retailer Choppies plans to cross-list its shares at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange by the end of May, as it expand its business in sub-Saharan Africa. The multinational grocery and general merchandise retailer has stores in three Southern Africa countries and is reportedly looking to expand into Zambia and Tanzania this year. The firm will list 10% of its shares and plans to raise about $50m. Choppies commands a market capitalization of about $535mon the Botswana Stock Exchange and has a 32% share of Botswana’s retail market and plans to add five more stores, taking the total to 77 retail outlets, by December, followed by another 20 in the medium term - Credit Agricole Egypt (CAE) reports net profit of EGP236m (+60% YoY and +8% QoQ) in 1Q2015 and net interest income of EGP371m in (+30% YoY and +7% QoQ)over the period, higher than analyst forecasts. No other income statement component was disclosed, with the exception of taxes (around EGP104m for the period, signifying an effective tax rate of around 31%). Full financial statements are not available yet - The European Union is reported to be investigating McDonald's over claims its structure allowed it to avoid more than €1bn (£730m) in tax. It is alleged that the fast food purveyor exploited loophole concerning royalties through Luxembourg, allowing it to pay just €16m of tax on royalties worth €3.7bn between 2009 and 2013. Unions claim McDonald's Luxembourg subsidiary employs just 13 people, yet booked €834m of revenue in 2013 - roughly around €64m per worker - Smith Cooper accountancy and business advisory firm today announced the appointment of Catherine Desmond as partner to enhance the firm's private client services across the Midlands. Desmond joins the firm from the Private Client department of Saffery Champness where she specialised in advising clients across a range of sectors, including predominantly family businesses and landed estates. In her new role at Smith Cooper, Catherine will be concentrating on further developing the range of tax planning services the firm offer their private clients. Her work will focus particularly on the agricultural sector and landed estates, an area Desmond has extensive experience in - Nomis Solutions has appointed Michael DeGusta to lead the architecture and development of the company’s next-generation pricing platform. Working with progressive technology companies such as Apple, eCoverage, and ChoicePoint, DeGusta brings 20 years of experience to Nomis. “Retail banks face unprecedented challenges, and Michael is the ideal leader to architect our future and to bring Nomis and our client banks to the next level of price optimization and profitability management,” says Frank Rohde, Nomis CEO. “The bankers we meet with relate a growing awakening to the opportunities provided by innovative technology and how it can help them thrive in the face of mediocre economies, changing customers, disruptive competitors, and challenging regulators.” -

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

The likelihood of another global recession

Monday, 20 August 2012 Written by 
The likelihood of another global recession There is real concern over the present state of the global economy, due to a slowdown in global trade and dwindling production prospects. Indeed, it is not out of the question that another global recession is looming. Economic crises can be found in both the eurozone and the United Kingdom, there is also a marked slowdown in the US economy and continuing stagnation in Japan. There is a justified fear that the crises could spread to open economies via global trade. And although emerging countries could implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to allay concerns about their growth models, these policies might not benefit the global economy because of the structural nature of the countries’ problems. The question remains, does the world have the economic policy weapons to combat a new global recession? http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

There is real concern over the present state of the global economy, due to a slowdown in global trade and dwindling production prospects. Indeed, it is not out of the question that another global recession is looming. Economic crises can be found in both the eurozone and the United Kingdom, there is also a marked slowdown in the US economy and continuing stagnation in Japan.

There is a justified fear that the crises could spread to open economies via global trade. And although emerging countries could implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to allay concerns about their growth models, these policies might not benefit the global economy because of the structural nature of the countries’ problems. The question remains, does the world have the economic policy weapons to combat a new global recession?

The slowdown in emerging countries’ growth

We would argue that another global recession is a possibility, because – as previously mentioned – the global economy is being hit simultaneously by a number of events.



Since early 2010, in particular, there has been a marked slowdown of growth in large emerging countries, mainly due to these countries’ problematic growth models. For instance: 

  • There has been a loss of competitiveness and profitability in China, due to sharp wage increases since 2010;
  • India has seen a stagnation in its industrial production capacity, partly due to hiring difficulties but also issues to do with its education and labour mobility;
  • Brazil’s exchange rate still has a lasting overvaluation despite the recent depreciation, which has not gone far enough;
  • And there is also the dominating concern that any of the crises could spread to open economies (such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Sweden and Central European countries) via global trade.

All things considered, the fact that practically all regions are affected means there is a serious threat for global growth.

Fundamentally, we believe the problems are down to:

  • OECD countries continuing to deleverage in public and private sectors;
  • China halting a growth model that was driven by low-end production, exports and migration;
  • the delayed growth in Brazil’s and India’s industry.

Faced with this risk of recession, does the world have the capacity to react with its economic policies?

In OECD countries, there is no longer any room for manoeuvre in monetary policies. This is because interest rates are already very low, and liquidity is already extremely abundant. These countries cannot necessarily implement further fiscal policies because of very high fiscal deficits and public debts. Of course, other options are conceivable, such as quantitative easing in the United States, further VLTROs or asset purchase policies in the eurozone, another extension to the Gilt purchase programme in the United Kingdom, and the creation of liquidity in Japan. But there is a possibility these expansionary monetary policies would have very little effect on the economy.

In emerging countries, interest rates can be lowered. And as the debt ratio is much lower than in OECD countries, in addition to lower fiscal deficits and public debts, monetary policy ought to be more efficient.

The issue is therefore not whether emerging countries are able to conduct more expansionary economic policies, but whether these policies could restore global growth:

(a) If emerging countries have structural economic problems, counter-cyclical policies will not resolve them. Boosting credit and investment in construction by state-owned companies in China would improve neither the sophistication of the product range nor cost-competitiveness. Running fiscal deficits or lowering interest rates in India would not resolve their issues in the education sector. Likewise in Brazil, it would not be able to fix its overvaluation, nor the fall in investment and employment in its industry.

(b) If additional expansionary monetary policies in emerging countries lead to a depreciation of their currencies – which we can see happening now – the situation would improve in emerging countries but deteriorate in OECD countries. Viewed as a whole, there would be no improvement in the situation of the global economy. It is striking to see that even the Chinese RMB has depreciated against the dollar; the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee have depreciated sharply since 2011.

Global growth in 2012-2013 should cause more concern

Current forecasts continue to point to a recovery in global growth between 2012 and 2013 and then in 2014. But we believe there is cause to be more concerned. The reasons for such an outlook lie in the slowdown in growth that affects all regions and has structural causes. Also, OECD countries no longer have the room for manoeuvre to conduct counter-cyclical economic policies. And although emerging countries still have the room to manoeuvre and conduct such policies, the fact remains they could still prove ineffective, regardless.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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