Tuesday 24th May 2016
News ticker: Tuesday, May 24th: Morningstar has upgraded the Schroder Japan Growth investment trust to a Morningstar Analyst Rating™ of Gold. The investment trust previously held a Silver rating. Peter Brunt, senior manager research analyst at Morningstar, comments: “The fund previously held a Silver rating. We continue to hold fund manager Andrew Rose, the supporting team and the structured process in high regard. Our concerns over the use of gearing have decreased over time, and we no longer see a reason to hold this closed-end vehicle at a differentiated rating to the identically managed Schroder Tokyo OEIC. The fund is therefore upgraded to Gold.” - The SYRIZA/ANEL coalition government secured late yesterday parliamentary approval of a key multi-bill incorporating the legislation required for the implementation of the remaining prior actions attached to the 1st programme review - Turkey’s Halk Bank has partnered with: Intellect Design Arena Limited to automate their Debt Management processes. Intellect’s Debt Management System will enable the Bank to manage its collections and recoveries more effectively and efficiently. The global lending portfolio is expected to be $38trn by 2019, growing at an average of7.9% CAGR. With increasing loans and high expected levels of delinquency, there is an increasing emphasis on strong debt management processes to devise powerful strategies for timely collection. Banks are spending to acquire customers and retain them on the one side, and on the other, they are also spending on collecting owed debt - Following what the asset manager describes as steady growth in the assets of the Threadneedle UK Absolute Alpha Fund, Columbia Threadneedle says it is currently monitoring flows in the fund with the potential to apply further containment measures. The Threadneedle UK Absolute Alpha Fund is managed by Mark Westwood and Chris Kinder, the fund takes long and short positions to deliver an absolute return to clients. As of end April 2016 the fund was £988m, having grown from £373m a year ago. Gary Collins, head of Wholesale, EMEA, at Columbia Threadneedle Investments says. “Our priority is always to protect the interests of existing investors and we have ceased marketing activity and new client pitches over the past year to manage inflows into the Threadneedle UK Absolute Alpha Fund. We are now monitoring new flows with the potential to apply further measures to limit demand if necessary to ensure the investment integrity of the fund is retained.” - Moody's has today withdrawn the A3 issuer rating of BP Finance PLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of BP plc (rated A2, positive outlook) for what it says are business reasons - Dragon Capital, says it will list its flagship fund, Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited (VEIL), on the main market of the London Stock Exchange sometime in July this year. Launched in 1995, VEIL is the largest and longest-running fund focused on Vietnam with a Net Asset Value (NA) of approximately $850m. The London listing is expected to create a more transparent and liquid market in VEIL's shares, widening potential ownership, attracting greater analyst coverage, increasing VEIL's profile and narrowing the discount to NAV at which the shares currently trade. Approximately half of VEIL's NAV is represented by stocks which are at their foreign ownership limits and cannot otherwise be accessed by foreign investors. The move is timely: Vietnam’s GDP rose 6.7% last year – Guaranty Trust Bank plc (GTBank) says it has redeemed the outstanding portion of its $500m eurobond notes due on May 19th. The bank issued a cash tender offer back in February to repurchase all the outstanding eurobond notes (priced at 7.5%), which it says was well received by investors. The issue was the first involving a Nigerian issuer and was secured by its subsidiary GTB Finance, set against an irrevocable bank guarantee. A statement from the bank issued yesterday, an aggregate principal amount of $126,586,000 of the securities were successfully tendered. The outstanding was redeemed from the bank’s cash reserves – Elsewhere in Nigeria, the Federal High Court has ordered former Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and the federal government to give account of how NGN30trn that accrued to government during the last four years of the former President Goodluck Jonathan's administration was managed.‎ Presiding judge, Justice Ibrahim Buba said in a statement that the former minister of finance and the government should have made the requested information available about the money or given reasons why it could not be obliged within the stipulated period in conformity with the Freedom of Information Act.‎ ‎The judgement was released in a formal statement by civil rights group, Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP)‎ through the office of its deputy director, Olukayode Majekodunmi, saying it embarked on the suit, tagged: FHC/L/CS/196/2015, ‎following the allegations by the former governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Charles Soludo, that at least NGN30trn "has either been stolen or unaccounted for, or grossly mismanaged over the last few years under the watch of Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. At the same time, local press report that ex-President Jonathan Goodluck may have gone into exile in the Cote d’Ivoire. It seems that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is about to arrest him to face corruption charges, which would signal a total turnaround for the president whose administration was based on tackling graft in the country - US monetary policy continues to exert its influence on markets. Trading volumes are thin anyway, but clearly there is a risk off sentiment running through and this won’t change until the next FOMC meeting decision; it might be that the market has now factored in a rise in June despite mixed data emanating from the US. Right now, there are more pressing worries about the outcome of the upcoming G7 meeting, with expectations that the group will fall apart over the application of monetary policy. The outcome of the Ise-Shima G7 summit on May 26th and 27th will weigh on markets for most of this week as the US talks increasingly stridently about the ‘threat’ of competitive currency devaluation. What is a central bank with a rising currency such as the yen and declining exports (down 10.1% in April on a year on year basis) meant to do? The other worrying trend is the increasingly racist and toxic tone of the Leave camp in the Brexit campaign. How many insults can be directed at ‘foreigners’ in the UK without someone calling for restraint? - Asian markets had a mixed day. That inverse relationship between the yen and the Japanese stock market was still writ large today. The Nikkei 225 closed down 81.75 points, or 0.49 percent, at 16,654.60, retracing earlier losses of more than 1.5%, while the dollar-yen pair ultimately retreated to 109.75/$1.00. The Kospi rose 0.39% but the Hang Seng lost 0.38% over the day. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.66% while the Shenzhen Composite did better, rising 1.45%, across the water the ASX200 was down 0.6%. The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 3.11 points or 0.11% higher to 2766.93, taking the year-to-date performance to -4.02%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 0.53%, Global Logistic, which declined 1.64%, SingTel, which gained 0.78%, OCBC Bank, which gained 0.36% and UOB, with a0.56% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.08%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose0.14% - Today, traders will be watching PMI data from France, Germany, and headline eurozone.

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The likelihood of another global recession

Monday, 20 August 2012 Written by 
The likelihood of another global recession There is real concern over the present state of the global economy, due to a slowdown in global trade and dwindling production prospects. Indeed, it is not out of the question that another global recession is looming. Economic crises can be found in both the eurozone and the United Kingdom, there is also a marked slowdown in the US economy and continuing stagnation in Japan. There is a justified fear that the crises could spread to open economies via global trade. And although emerging countries could implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to allay concerns about their growth models, these policies might not benefit the global economy because of the structural nature of the countries’ problems. The question remains, does the world have the economic policy weapons to combat a new global recession? http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

There is real concern over the present state of the global economy, due to a slowdown in global trade and dwindling production prospects. Indeed, it is not out of the question that another global recession is looming. Economic crises can be found in both the eurozone and the United Kingdom, there is also a marked slowdown in the US economy and continuing stagnation in Japan.

There is a justified fear that the crises could spread to open economies via global trade. And although emerging countries could implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to allay concerns about their growth models, these policies might not benefit the global economy because of the structural nature of the countries’ problems. The question remains, does the world have the economic policy weapons to combat a new global recession?

The slowdown in emerging countries’ growth

We would argue that another global recession is a possibility, because – as previously mentioned – the global economy is being hit simultaneously by a number of events.



Since early 2010, in particular, there has been a marked slowdown of growth in large emerging countries, mainly due to these countries’ problematic growth models. For instance: 

  • There has been a loss of competitiveness and profitability in China, due to sharp wage increases since 2010;
  • India has seen a stagnation in its industrial production capacity, partly due to hiring difficulties but also issues to do with its education and labour mobility;
  • Brazil’s exchange rate still has a lasting overvaluation despite the recent depreciation, which has not gone far enough;
  • And there is also the dominating concern that any of the crises could spread to open economies (such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Sweden and Central European countries) via global trade.

All things considered, the fact that practically all regions are affected means there is a serious threat for global growth.

Fundamentally, we believe the problems are down to:

  • OECD countries continuing to deleverage in public and private sectors;
  • China halting a growth model that was driven by low-end production, exports and migration;
  • the delayed growth in Brazil’s and India’s industry.

Faced with this risk of recession, does the world have the capacity to react with its economic policies?

In OECD countries, there is no longer any room for manoeuvre in monetary policies. This is because interest rates are already very low, and liquidity is already extremely abundant. These countries cannot necessarily implement further fiscal policies because of very high fiscal deficits and public debts. Of course, other options are conceivable, such as quantitative easing in the United States, further VLTROs or asset purchase policies in the eurozone, another extension to the Gilt purchase programme in the United Kingdom, and the creation of liquidity in Japan. But there is a possibility these expansionary monetary policies would have very little effect on the economy.

In emerging countries, interest rates can be lowered. And as the debt ratio is much lower than in OECD countries, in addition to lower fiscal deficits and public debts, monetary policy ought to be more efficient.

The issue is therefore not whether emerging countries are able to conduct more expansionary economic policies, but whether these policies could restore global growth:

(a) If emerging countries have structural economic problems, counter-cyclical policies will not resolve them. Boosting credit and investment in construction by state-owned companies in China would improve neither the sophistication of the product range nor cost-competitiveness. Running fiscal deficits or lowering interest rates in India would not resolve their issues in the education sector. Likewise in Brazil, it would not be able to fix its overvaluation, nor the fall in investment and employment in its industry.

(b) If additional expansionary monetary policies in emerging countries lead to a depreciation of their currencies – which we can see happening now – the situation would improve in emerging countries but deteriorate in OECD countries. Viewed as a whole, there would be no improvement in the situation of the global economy. It is striking to see that even the Chinese RMB has depreciated against the dollar; the Brazilian real and the Indian rupee have depreciated sharply since 2011.

Global growth in 2012-2013 should cause more concern

Current forecasts continue to point to a recovery in global growth between 2012 and 2013 and then in 2014. But we believe there is cause to be more concerned. The reasons for such an outlook lie in the slowdown in growth that affects all regions and has structural causes. Also, OECD countries no longer have the room for manoeuvre to conduct counter-cyclical economic policies. And although emerging countries still have the room to manoeuvre and conduct such policies, the fact remains they could still prove ineffective, regardless.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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