Monday 6th July 2015
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY, JULY 3rd: Euronext says trading volumes for June 2015 and enterprise-wide activity for the first half year. During the first six months of 2015, Euronext posted the strongest six-month performance since the end of 2011 supported by favourable economic conditions. June average daily transaction value on the Euronext cash order book stood at €9,202m (+54% compared with June 2014). Activity on ETFs remained particularly dynamic last month with an average daily transaction value at €587m, up 106% compared to June 2014. Cash markets saw a material increase in trading activity across the first half of 2015, with an average daily transaction value for the period up 35% vs 2014. During this period, Euronext experienced three of the ten highest volume traded days since January 2012, and on march 20th the strongest single day of trading cash products of €18bn since the same date. In the meantime, the continued focus on nurturing domestic market share meant it returned to 65% for the month of June in a highly competitive environment - Morningstar has placed the Morningstar Analyst Rating for the Mirabaud Equities Swiss Small and Mid-fund Under Review following the appointment of new portfolio manager, Paul Schibli. The fund previously held a Neutral rating. Morningstar manager research analysts will meet with the new manager soon to reassess Morningstar’s opinion on the fund - Moody’s has today changed the outlook on all ratings of Bridge Holdco 4 Ltd, the ultimate holding company for Bridon Group, to stable from positive. Concurrently, the group's B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), B3-PD Probability of Default Rating (PDR) as well as the B2 instrument rating on the USD286 million senior secured first lien term loan, $40m senior secured revolving credit facility and the Caa2 rating on the $111m senior secured second lien term loan borrowed by Bridge Finco LLC have been affirmed - Subsea 7 S.A. repurchase of convertible bonds has filed a notice with the Luxembourg stock exchange that it has repurchased convertible bonds worth $10m in nominal value at an average price of 91.5 of the $700m 1% Subsea 7 S.A. Convertible Bond Issue 2012/2017 (ISIN NO: 001066116.8). Following the purchase, the Company holds bonds with an aggregate nominal value of USD 91,800,000 representing approximately 13.1% of the 1.00% Subsea 7 S.A. Convertible Bond Issue 2012/2017 - Bellpenny says that its CEO, Kevin Ronaldson, will step down later this year to become ‘Founder Director’ of the business. Nigel Stockton, who has been a director of Bellpenny since inception, will, subject to FCA approval, become the new CEO. The changes are expected to take effect in September - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 14.89 points or 0.45% higher to 3342.73, taking the year-to-date performance to -0.67%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 2.00%, Singtel, which closed unchanged, Global Logistic, which declined 0.39%, Ascendas REIT, which gained 0.42% and UOB, with a 0.43% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.16%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.30%. Outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Financials Index, which rose 0.69%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - DBS Group Holdings and OCBC- ended 2.00% higher and 0.79% higher respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which slipped 0.89%. Midas Holdings shares declined 1.56% and NSL increased 0.67%.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

US reindustrialisation poses challenge for eurozone

Tuesday, 22 May 2012 Written by 
US reindustrialisation poses challenge for eurozone A reindustrialisation process has been underway in the U.S. since 2009, linked to the trend in the profitability of industrial companies, wage costs and energy prices. It has already enabled the U.S. to regain market share in global trade, creating an additional problem for the euro zone given it is already faces market share losses to emerging countries and weak domestic demand. The euro-zone economy is therefore likely to be further weakened if it loses more export trade to the U.S. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

A reindustrialisation process has been underway in the U.S. since 2009, linked to the trend in the profitability of industrial companies, wage costs and energy prices. It has already enabled the U.S. to regain market share in global trade, creating an additional problem for the euro zone given it is already faces market share losses to emerging countries and weak domestic demand. The euro-zone economy is therefore likely to be further weakened if it loses more export trade to the U.S.

Reindustrialisation process under way in the U.S.

The reindustrialisation of the U.S. is evident from the upswing in productive investment and manufacturing employment as well as from the upturn in manufacturing output, which has outpaced the euro zone since the crisis. Yet – for the time being – U.S. reindustrialisation has mainly affected the automotive and capital goods sectors.



Growth of U.S. industry can be ascribed to three factors:

-       rapidly increasing profitability of industrial companies in the U.S.;

-       labour costs in industry, which are lower in the U.S. than in Germany or France;

-       and the low cost of energy thanks to the fall in the price of natural gas, due to shale gas production.

The United States is regaining export market share

The U.S. situation in terms of export market share has been improving since the end of 2008. It appears that the U.S. has increased its market share in global exports largely at the expense of the euro zone and Central European countries (CEEC). Since end-2008, the U.S. trade deficit with the euro zone, Asian emerging countries excluding China, other American countries and Japan has been shrinking, though its trade deficit with China has stopped deteriorating. But in terms of export market share, U.S. improvement seems to match the deterioration in Europe.

An additional problem for the euro zone

The euro zone is already faced with a decline in domestic demand as a result of the restrictive fiscal policies, a decline in real wages due to the rise in unemployment and a loss in market share to emerging countries.

So – any further losses in export market share to the U.S. will therefore come on top of these problems. A depreciation of the euro could obviously correct the euro zone’s loss of competitiveness (in terms of wages and the price of energy). However, even during periods when the euro-zone crisis is acute, the euro still remains overvalued against the dollar

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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