Sunday 23rd November 2014
NEWS TICKER – FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST 2014: The director of the National Security Agency, Navy Admiral Michael Rogers, says he expects to see adversaries launch a cyber-attack in the next few years aimed at severely damaging America's critical infrastructure. "I fully expect that during my time as commander, we're going to be tasked to help defend critical infrastructure within the United States because it is under attack by some foreign nation or some individual or group," Rogers told the House Select Committee on Intelligence this morning (EST). Rogers, who also serves as commander of the US Cyber Command, says the government is better prepared to defend against those attacks than it was two years ago.On November 24th, the Federal Reserve will conduct a fixed-rate offering of term deposits through its Term Deposit Facility (TDF) that will incorporate an early withdrawal feature. This feature will allow depository institutions to obtain a return of funds prior to the maturity date subject to an early withdrawal penalty. The Federal Reserve will offer eight-day term deposits with an interest rate of 0.29000% and a maximum tender amount of $20,000,000,000. The penalty for early withdrawal is 0.75%, the minimum tender per institution is $20,000,000,000 - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +29.72 points higher or +0.90% to 3345.32, taking the year-to-date performance to +5.70%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.64% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.83%. The top active stocks were SingTel (+0.51%), UOB (+1.37%), DBS (+1.64%), Keppel Corp (+0.22%) and OCBC Bank (+1.16%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index (+1.70%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index are Midas Holdings (+1.72%) and Geo Energy Resources (+3.02%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Technology Index, which gained +0.16% with Silverlake Axis’s share price gaining 0.41% and STATS ChipPAC’s share price unchanged. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value were the IS MSCI India (+1.70%), SPDR Gold Shares (+0.34%), DBXT MSCI Singapore IM ETF (unchanged). The most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Suntec REIT (unchanged), Ascendas REIT (unchanged), CapitaCom Trust (+0.89%) - In an interview with US online service Careers Info-Security News Greg Shannon, chief scientist at the CERT Division of Carnegie Mellon University's Software Engineering Institute says that to defeat cyber-adversaries, cybersecurity professionals should adopt a contrarian attitude, says. "Having that contrarian point of view allows you to get into the mindset of the adversary," Shannon says in an interview with Information Security Media Group. "How would this technology work if it did something the designer of it didn't think of?" he asks. "Certainly, that's the way the adversary is thinking, coming up with new attacks, new threats. They're looking at an app, a piece of software or some websites, [and they think] 'What can I do here that the designer didn't think of? Is there a way to get information through channels, through tricks that weren't anticipated? Is there some frailty of humans that I can exploit to get information out of them that they wouldn't normally give me?'" – Raiffeisen Bank International warned in an analyst conference call yesterday that profits in its Russian business would be challenged in Q4 versus Q3. The bank’s Chief Financial Officer Martin Gruell said higher risk provisioning and increased operating expenses could cut profits in its single most profitable market. "I would expect the fourth quarter to be a bit lower than the third quarter," he said. He believes the worst of the rouble's devaluation is over, but explained that the impact on the group’s capital from the dip in the ruble, could push RBI's core capital below 10% of risk-weighted assets by the end of this year - The performance of the Dutch residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market remained stable during the three-month period ended September 2014, according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service. The 60+ day delinquencies of Dutch RMBS, including Dutch mortgage loans benefitting from a Nationale Hypotheek Garantie, decreased to 0.95% in September 2014 from 0.98% in June 2014. At the same time, the 90+ day delinquencies decreased to 0.72% during the three-month period compared with 0.75% in June 2014. Cumulative defaults continued to increase to 0.54% of the original balance, plus additions (in the case of Master Issuers) and replenishments in September 2014, compared with 0.47% in June 2014, says the ratings agency. Cumulative losses slightly increased to 0.11% in September 2014 from 0.10% in June 2014 – According to a Clearstream client bulletin on November 18th, the US Internal Revenue Service and the US Treasury published an amendment to the current temporary regulations (TD9657) regarding FATCA. The amendment impacts Foreign Financial Institutions (FFIs) who have entered into an agreement with the IRS to become a participating FFI. It amends the determination date and timing for reporting with respect to the 2014 calendar year.

US reindustrialisation poses challenge for eurozone

Tuesday, 22 May 2012 Written by 
US reindustrialisation poses challenge for eurozone A reindustrialisation process has been underway in the U.S. since 2009, linked to the trend in the profitability of industrial companies, wage costs and energy prices. It has already enabled the U.S. to regain market share in global trade, creating an additional problem for the euro zone given it is already faces market share losses to emerging countries and weak domestic demand. The euro-zone economy is therefore likely to be further weakened if it loses more export trade to the U.S. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

A reindustrialisation process has been underway in the U.S. since 2009, linked to the trend in the profitability of industrial companies, wage costs and energy prices. It has already enabled the U.S. to regain market share in global trade, creating an additional problem for the euro zone given it is already faces market share losses to emerging countries and weak domestic demand. The euro-zone economy is therefore likely to be further weakened if it loses more export trade to the U.S.

Reindustrialisation process under way in the U.S.

The reindustrialisation of the U.S. is evident from the upswing in productive investment and manufacturing employment as well as from the upturn in manufacturing output, which has outpaced the euro zone since the crisis. Yet – for the time being – U.S. reindustrialisation has mainly affected the automotive and capital goods sectors.



Growth of U.S. industry can be ascribed to three factors:

-       rapidly increasing profitability of industrial companies in the U.S.;

-       labour costs in industry, which are lower in the U.S. than in Germany or France;

-       and the low cost of energy thanks to the fall in the price of natural gas, due to shale gas production.

The United States is regaining export market share

The U.S. situation in terms of export market share has been improving since the end of 2008. It appears that the U.S. has increased its market share in global exports largely at the expense of the euro zone and Central European countries (CEEC). Since end-2008, the U.S. trade deficit with the euro zone, Asian emerging countries excluding China, other American countries and Japan has been shrinking, though its trade deficit with China has stopped deteriorating. But in terms of export market share, U.S. improvement seems to match the deterioration in Europe.

An additional problem for the euro zone

The euro zone is already faced with a decline in domestic demand as a result of the restrictive fiscal policies, a decline in real wages due to the rise in unemployment and a loss in market share to emerging countries.

So – any further losses in export market share to the U.S. will therefore come on top of these problems. A depreciation of the euro could obviously correct the euro zone’s loss of competitiveness (in terms of wages and the price of energy). However, even during periods when the euro-zone crisis is acute, the euro still remains overvalued against the dollar

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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