Tuesday 30th June 2015
NEWS TICKER, TUESDAY JUNE 30TH 2015: Pamplona Capital Management (“Pamplona”) has acquired Precyse, a health information manager in services, education and technology founded in 1999. Also, earlier this month, Pamplona sold the majority of its controlling stake in Alvogen, a high growth generic drugs company, to a consortium of investors. The Precyse investment has been made from Pamplona’s fourth private equity fund, Pamplona Capital Partners and was advised by Deutsche Bank Securities and received legal advice from Simpson Thacher & Bartlett. Pamplona is a London and New York based specialist investment manager established in 2005. In addition to Precyse, Pamplona’s healthcare investment portfolio currently includes Spreemo, a company that is bringing to the workers compensation specialty benefits management industry with a focus on radiology; Intralign, which helps hospital and surgeons achieve a rep-less, optimised surgical episode by combining assessment with clinical support and operational tools; Magnacare, a healthcare administrative services company focused on self-insured employers and workers complains in the New York and New Jersey regions; and Privia Health, a physician practice management and population health technology company. - In line with its strategy to focus on packaging solutions for its pharmaceutical customers, Gerresheimer today announced that it will sell its glass tubing business to Corning Incorporated. The €196m ($219m) deal was advised by McDermott Will & Emery - GVQ Investment Management Limited (GVQIM), a specialist fund manager that applies private equity investment techniques to the public markets, has announced the appointment of Jane Tufnell as non-executive chairman. Tufnell co-founded Ruffer Investment Management Limited, a privately owned fund management group in 1994. She is an Independent Non-Executive Director of the Diverse Income Trust and of the JP Morgan Claverhouse Investment Trust. - Insurance broker and risk advisory firm Willis Group Holdings and professional services group Towers Watson on Tuesday said they had agreed to an all-stock merger that values the combined company at $18bn. Under the deal, which has been approved by both boards, Towers Watson shareholders will get 2.6490 Willis shares for each share held as well as a one-time cash dividend of $4.87 a share. Willis Group shareholders will own 50.1% of the combined group and Towers Watson shareholders will own the rest. The combined company, to be named Willis Towers Watson, will have 39,000 employees in more than 120 countries and revenue of about $8.2bn. Willis Chairman James McCann will be chairman of the combined company and Towers Watson Chairman and Chief Executive John Haley will be its CEO. Willis CEO Dominic Casserley will be president and deputy CEO of the combined company. Its board will consist of six directors from each company. Towers Watson’s chief financial officer, Roger Millay, will be CFO - According to BankingLaw 360, the US Supreme Court has granted an appeal from Merrill Lynch, UBS Securities LLC and other financial institutions over a shareholder suit alleging they engaged in illegal and manipulative “naked” short selling - Roxi Petroleum has reported progress at its flagship BNG asset as it posted an operational update. The Central Asian oil and gas company with a focus on Kazakhstan says that a gross oil-bearing interval of at least 105 metres, from 4,332 metres to 4,437 metres, was found at its Deep Well A5. The well, which was spudded in July 2013, will require specialist equipment for a more comprehensive 30-day core sampling test, but has already began preparatory extraction work Elsewhere, Deep Well 801, spudded in December 2014, is in the production test phase. "Progress at the BNG deep wells can best be described as steady," says chairman Clive Carver. "We look forward to reporting the results of our ongoing work in the near future – Advisory firm Hargreaves Landsdown has reportedly acquired a client book of 7,000 investors with a combined £370m of assets from JP Morgan Asset Management. The book accounts for 6% of JP Morgan’s direct client business and represents clients that hold or plan to continue to invest in non-JP Morgan funds or investment trusts in wrappers other than the JP Morgan ISA. This includes clients with direct equities, gilts or exchange-traded funds, who will be moved the brokers Vantage platform. The sale follows JP Morgan's announcement in January 2014 that it would no longer offer direct clients anything other than JP Morgan funds and investment trusts and that it would close its cash ISA and Sipp. There will be no transfer charge for clients moving to Hargreaves. The terms of the deal have not been disclosed - The OECD will publish Government at a Glance 2015 on Monday July 6th. The biannual report, now in its fourth edition, presents more than 50 indicators to compare governments’ performance in everything from public finances (including government spending per person), cuts to staffing and pay in central government and the level of private asset disclosure by government officials to access to and satisfaction with the healthcare, education and the justice systems This year’s report covers non-OECD countries for some indicators including Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine and 36 country factsheets with infographics will be published alongside it. OECD Deputy Secretary-General Mari Kiviniemi will present the report at OECD Headquarters in Paris at 09:00am - Queensland diversified property group WA Stockwell has closed its $35m bond issue oversubscribed following a strong investor response to the offer, sole lead arranger FIIG Securities has announced. The six year senior secured amortising note issue will pay a fixed rate of interest of 7.75% pa. FIIG CEO Mark Paton says the success of the Stockwell issue confirmed the market appetite, especially among wholesale investors, for credit exposure to quality Australian companies. The Stockwell issue is the fourth that FIIG has sole-arranged for a company in the property and infrastructure sector, following successful issues by ASX-listed property developer Payce Consolidated, infrastructure operator Plenary Group, and ASX-listed property funds manager 360 Capital.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

What kind of economy would the euro zone be without Germany?

Thursday, 28 June 2012 Written by 
What kind of economy would the euro zone be without Germany? There is increasing talk about establishing federalist mechanisms (eurobonds, eurobills) and pooling certain risks and investments between euro-zone countries (European bank guarantees, recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF-ESM, increased investments by the EIB, EFSF-ESM access to ECB funding, purchases of government bonds by the ECB). Germany's criticism of these proposals is that they ultimately place all the costs and all the risks on Germany, due to its economic, fiscal and financial situation and its credibility in financial markets. It is claimed that eventually all the bills will be sent to Germany, since the other euro area countries have no fiscal or financial leeway or any credibility to guarantee deposits and loans. We shall therefore examine the economy of the euro zone excluding Germany and ask the question: Is it in such a bad situation that federalism or the pooling of risks and investments between euro-zone countries would in fact amount to potentially placing the entire burden on Germany? We think that Germany’s fears are justified. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

There is increasing talk about establishing federalist mechanisms (eurobonds, eurobills) and pooling certain risks and investments between euro-zone countries (European bank guarantees, recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF-ESM, increased investments by the EIB, EFSF-ESM access to ECB funding, purchases of government bonds by the ECB). Germany's criticism of these proposals is that they ultimately place all the costs and all the risks on Germany, due to its economic, fiscal and financial situation and its credibility in financial markets. It is claimed that eventually all the bills will be sent to Germany, since the other euro area countries have no fiscal or financial leeway or any credibility to guarantee deposits and loans.

We shall therefore examine the economy of the euro zone excluding Germany and ask the question: Is it in such a bad situation that federalism or the pooling of risks and investments between euro-zone countries would in fact amount to potentially placing the entire burden on Germany?

We think that Germany’s fears are justified.

Federalism: pooling between euro-zone countries

The resolution of the euro-zone crisis will inevitably involve establishing certain forms of federalism (eurobonds, eurobills) and the pooling of certain investments and risks (a European bank guarantee system, the recapitalisation of the banks (e.g. Spanish banks) by the EFSF-ESM, an increase in structural funds or investments by the EIB, ESM access to ECB funding).



The pooling of risks between euro-zone countries already exists: the Target 2 accounts are a pooling of bank risks among euro-zone central banks, and purchases of government bonds by the ECB pool sovereign risk.

This trend to federalism and pooling is inevitable: in a monetary union without federalism, countries with external surpluses and countries with external deficits cannot coexist permanently due to the resulting accumulation of external debt.

A number of financing needs are too substantial to be borne by a single country, e.g. for Spain the need for recapitalisation of its banks. And a number of risks (e.g. the risk of a bank run) are also too great not to be pooled.

Is this move towards federalism and pooling a trap for Germany?

The view in Germany is clearly that this move towards federalism and pooling is a trap for Germany. It is claimed that Germany will have to cover most of the costs because it has public finances in good health, growth that is now stronger, higher living standards than the countries in distress, and excess savings.

Germany also has strong credibility in financial markets, as shown by its interest rate level, and it is the only country to be able to credibly insure risks and guarantee loans.

The Germans' concern is therefore understandable: if there is federalism and a pooling of investments and risks, will Germany "receive all the bills"?

To determine whether this is a real risk, let’s examine the situation of the euro zone without Germany: is it such a worrying region, will it have to be propped up permanently by Germany?

The economic and financial situation of the euro zone without Germany: Is it serious?

Without going into greater detail for each country, we shall examine:

·                   its competitiveness, the foreign trade situation; the weight of industry;

·                   its situation regarding its technological level, skills, productivity and investment; its potential growth;

·                   the situation of its businesses and households;

·                   its public finances.

1. Foreign trade, competitiveness, weight of industry

The euro zone without Germany has:

·                   a structural external deficit;

·                   a shortfall in competitiveness;

·                   a small industrial base;

·                   a large external debt.

2. Technological level, skills, investment, productivity and potential growth, capacity for job creation

The technological level of the euro zone without Germany is fairly low, as is the population's level of education; this zone invests little, has low productivity gains, and since 2008 it has destroyed jobs massively.

3. Situation of businesses and households

Corporate profitability in the euro zone excluding Germany is low, but private (corporate and household) debt is lower than in Germany; however, household solvency has deteriorated (in Germany, household defaults are low and stable; in France, Spain and Italy, they are high and rising).

4. Public finance situation

The public finances of the euro zone excluding Germany are in a very poor state compared with Germany. Indeed Germany’s debt to GDP ratio is expected to fall, while in the euro zone excluding Germany it should rise rapidly toward 100%; Germany has a 1% primary surplus, while the euro zone excluding Germany has a 2% primary deficit.

Conclusion: Are the German fears justified?

If the euro zone were to become a federal monetary union, with solidarity between countries and pooling of certain investments (recapitalisation of banks, for example) and risks, surely the rest of the euro zone excluding Germany could only be:

·                   benefiting from transfers from Germany;

·                   benefiting from Germany's credibility in the markets;

·                   benefiting from Germany's guarantee;

Or could it share this burden with Germany? We suspect that the burden on Germany would be very heavy.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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