Sunday 3rd May 2015
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY, MAY IST: MYOB will return on Monday next to the ASX, selling 228.3mshares at $3.65 in the company’s IPO. The company raised AUD833.1m, giving it an implied market capitalisation of AUD2.13bn. Bain Capital will retain 58% of the firm’s stock. “We saw a significant level of participation from eligible retail noteholders in the offer, with approximately 57% of holders exchanging their notes into shares. We see this wide range of investor interest as a strong vote of confidence in MYOB.” MYOB chairman Justin Milne says. ASX trading in MYOB shares is set to begin on 4 May under the code MYO. MYOB was listed on exchange from 1999 to 2009 – The volume of US municipal bonds soared by 42.1% in April, according to Thomson Reuters’ data; the ninth straight monthly gain. Issuers brought $37.76bn to market in 1,210 issues, up from $26.58bn in 939 issues in April 2014. Low interest rates, and the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to raise rates over the near term has resulted in a dash by municipal issuers anxious to secure low cost funding as many refinance their debts. Other than refinancing, new issuance per se looks to be tailing off. New money transactions declined by 5.6% to $12.68bn from $13.43bn, while combined refunding and new money transactions increased 42.5% to $7.17bn from $5.03bn in April last year. Negotiated bond sales increased 62.4% to $28.97bn from $17.84bn, competitive deals rose 15.4% to $8.62bn from $7.47 billion and private placements plunged 87.2% to $162mn from $1.26bn. Sales of revenue bonds increased 49.9% to $22.84bn in 421 deals from $15.24bn in 306 deals. General obligation bond volume jumped 29.9% to $14.73bn in 788 issues from $11.34bn in 633 issues. Tax-exempt deals were up 42.4% to $33.88bn, while taxable deals were 24% higher to $3.30bn.Fixed-rate issues increased to $36.75bn in 1,167 issues from $24.85bn in 891 issues the previous year. The volume of deals with bond insurance more than doubled in par amount wrapped to $2.54bn in 161 deals from $1.06bn in 104 transactions. California claimed the top spot among states with $21.47bn of issuance thus far in 2015, up from its No. 2 ranking in the same period of last year with $12.03bn. Texas dropped from first to second with $17.85bn, an increase from $12.31bn the year before. New York remained in third place with $11.91bn so far this year, up from $10.29bn year to date - This morning Lloyds Banking Group said that in Q1 it had made a net profit of £913m and underlying profit was up 21% on the same period last year, to £2.2bn. Moreover, the group said that it was raising its net interest income target above the original target of 2.55%. Graham Spooner, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, says: “These results are good news for investors as they are ahead of forecasts and demonstrate a continued improvement in the company’s performance. The part UK government owned bank additionally reported that it has been benefitting from a resurgent British economy which has led to reduced bad loans and fuelled demand for mortgages. Lloyds announced its first dividend in February since being bailed out and investors should acknowledge that the increasing signs of recovery will boost hopes for a significant dividend growth in the near future. Analysts have become a little more positive on the group and its long term restructuring plans, which appear to be happening faster than expectations. However … the sector [remains] under pressure, as a result of regulatory issues and ahead of the next government sale.” - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 0.24 points or 0.01% higher to 3487.39, taking the year-to-date performance to +3.63%. The top active stocks today were SingTel, which declined 0.23%, OCBC Bank, which declined 1.84%, DBS, which gained 0.19%, UOB, which gained 0.29% and Keppel Corp, with a 1.02% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.47%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.18%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index, which rose 1.00%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Hongkong Land Holdings and Global Logistic Properties – ended 2.02% higher and 2.23% higher respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index, which slipped 1.04%. Wilmar International shares remained unchanged and Thai Beverage declined 3.38%.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

What kind of economy would the euro zone be without Germany?

Thursday, 28 June 2012 Written by 
What kind of economy would the euro zone be without Germany? There is increasing talk about establishing federalist mechanisms (eurobonds, eurobills) and pooling certain risks and investments between euro-zone countries (European bank guarantees, recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF-ESM, increased investments by the EIB, EFSF-ESM access to ECB funding, purchases of government bonds by the ECB). Germany's criticism of these proposals is that they ultimately place all the costs and all the risks on Germany, due to its economic, fiscal and financial situation and its credibility in financial markets. It is claimed that eventually all the bills will be sent to Germany, since the other euro area countries have no fiscal or financial leeway or any credibility to guarantee deposits and loans. We shall therefore examine the economy of the euro zone excluding Germany and ask the question: Is it in such a bad situation that federalism or the pooling of risks and investments between euro-zone countries would in fact amount to potentially placing the entire burden on Germany? We think that Germany’s fears are justified. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

There is increasing talk about establishing federalist mechanisms (eurobonds, eurobills) and pooling certain risks and investments between euro-zone countries (European bank guarantees, recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF-ESM, increased investments by the EIB, EFSF-ESM access to ECB funding, purchases of government bonds by the ECB). Germany's criticism of these proposals is that they ultimately place all the costs and all the risks on Germany, due to its economic, fiscal and financial situation and its credibility in financial markets. It is claimed that eventually all the bills will be sent to Germany, since the other euro area countries have no fiscal or financial leeway or any credibility to guarantee deposits and loans.

We shall therefore examine the economy of the euro zone excluding Germany and ask the question: Is it in such a bad situation that federalism or the pooling of risks and investments between euro-zone countries would in fact amount to potentially placing the entire burden on Germany?

We think that Germany’s fears are justified.

Federalism: pooling between euro-zone countries

The resolution of the euro-zone crisis will inevitably involve establishing certain forms of federalism (eurobonds, eurobills) and the pooling of certain investments and risks (a European bank guarantee system, the recapitalisation of the banks (e.g. Spanish banks) by the EFSF-ESM, an increase in structural funds or investments by the EIB, ESM access to ECB funding).



The pooling of risks between euro-zone countries already exists: the Target 2 accounts are a pooling of bank risks among euro-zone central banks, and purchases of government bonds by the ECB pool sovereign risk.

This trend to federalism and pooling is inevitable: in a monetary union without federalism, countries with external surpluses and countries with external deficits cannot coexist permanently due to the resulting accumulation of external debt.

A number of financing needs are too substantial to be borne by a single country, e.g. for Spain the need for recapitalisation of its banks. And a number of risks (e.g. the risk of a bank run) are also too great not to be pooled.

Is this move towards federalism and pooling a trap for Germany?

The view in Germany is clearly that this move towards federalism and pooling is a trap for Germany. It is claimed that Germany will have to cover most of the costs because it has public finances in good health, growth that is now stronger, higher living standards than the countries in distress, and excess savings.

Germany also has strong credibility in financial markets, as shown by its interest rate level, and it is the only country to be able to credibly insure risks and guarantee loans.

The Germans' concern is therefore understandable: if there is federalism and a pooling of investments and risks, will Germany "receive all the bills"?

To determine whether this is a real risk, let’s examine the situation of the euro zone without Germany: is it such a worrying region, will it have to be propped up permanently by Germany?

The economic and financial situation of the euro zone without Germany: Is it serious?

Without going into greater detail for each country, we shall examine:

·                   its competitiveness, the foreign trade situation; the weight of industry;

·                   its situation regarding its technological level, skills, productivity and investment; its potential growth;

·                   the situation of its businesses and households;

·                   its public finances.

1. Foreign trade, competitiveness, weight of industry

The euro zone without Germany has:

·                   a structural external deficit;

·                   a shortfall in competitiveness;

·                   a small industrial base;

·                   a large external debt.

2. Technological level, skills, investment, productivity and potential growth, capacity for job creation

The technological level of the euro zone without Germany is fairly low, as is the population's level of education; this zone invests little, has low productivity gains, and since 2008 it has destroyed jobs massively.

3. Situation of businesses and households

Corporate profitability in the euro zone excluding Germany is low, but private (corporate and household) debt is lower than in Germany; however, household solvency has deteriorated (in Germany, household defaults are low and stable; in France, Spain and Italy, they are high and rising).

4. Public finance situation

The public finances of the euro zone excluding Germany are in a very poor state compared with Germany. Indeed Germany’s debt to GDP ratio is expected to fall, while in the euro zone excluding Germany it should rise rapidly toward 100%; Germany has a 1% primary surplus, while the euro zone excluding Germany has a 2% primary deficit.

Conclusion: Are the German fears justified?

If the euro zone were to become a federal monetary union, with solidarity between countries and pooling of certain investments (recapitalisation of banks, for example) and risks, surely the rest of the euro zone excluding Germany could only be:

·                   benefiting from transfers from Germany;

·                   benefiting from Germany's credibility in the markets;

·                   benefiting from Germany's guarantee;

Or could it share this burden with Germany? We suspect that the burden on Germany would be very heavy.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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