Tuesday 21st April 2015
NEWS TICKER MONDAY APRIL 20TH 2015: European President Donald Tusk has called an extraordinary European Council on migratory pressures in the Mediterranean for Thursday this week to discuss how to tackle the growing tragedy of hundreds of would-be immigrants dying at sea on the way to trying to build a better life. “The situation in the Mediterranean is dramatic,” says Tusk. “It cannot continue like this. We cannot accept that hundreds of people die when trying to cross the sea to Europe. The objective of the summit is to discuss, at the highest level, what we, the Member States and the EU institutions together, can and must do to alleviate the situation now. I do not expect any quick-fix solutions to the root causes of migration - because there are none. Had they existed, we would have used them long ago. But I do expect that the Commission and the European External Action Service will present options for immediate action. And I do expect Member States will contribute immediately.” – The Nasdaq Stock Market says trading was halted today in ForceField Energy Inc (Nasdaq:FNRG) at 10:21:37 Eastern Time for "additional information requested" from the company at a last price of $3.11. Trading will remain halted until ForceField Energy Inc. has fully satisfied Nasdaq's request for additional information. For news and additional information about the company, please contact the company directly or check under the company's symbol using InfoQuotes on the Nasdaq web site - PEGAS, the pan-European gas trading platform operated by Powernext, successfully launched physically settled Spot and Futures contracts, quoted in pence per therms, for the Belgian Zeebrugge Beach (ZEE) gas hub on April 17th 2015. On the same day, a Daily Average Price index for the Zeebrugge Trading Point (ZTP) in Euros per Megawatt-Hour was introduced. The first transaction was completed on the first trading day at 08:49 AM CET on ZEE May 2015 contract at 45.025 pence per therm with a volume of 25,000 therms. This represented the first cleared futures trade ever made on the Zeebrugge hub. 14 trading members are set up for trading of the new products, with more members currently in the process of being admitted. “With the addition of the new ZEE contracts and with the ZTP and ZTPL (ZTP L-gas) products launched in July 2014, PEGAS is offering new trading opportunities through the widest range of products in two of the most important European hubs”, comments Dr Egbert Laege, chief executive officer of Powernext. Moreover, PEGAS is now providing a new ZTP Daily Average Price (DAP) index which is the weighted average of all transactions during a trading day - The value of real estate trades in Kuwait fell by 27% to KWD956m and the number of transactions fell by 28% to 692 in the first quarter this year according to statistics from the real estate registration department at the Ministry of Justice - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) have pledged to enhance cooperation to respond more effectively to the needs of their common membership in a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The AMF and the IMF share common objectives of maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, and accelerating broad-based and inclusive economic growth and job creation in the Arab region, in addition to strengthening capacity building. Under the MOU, the AMF and the IMF will continue to provide training opportunities to Arab officials, support the development of domestic capital markets in the Arab countries, and strengthen their collaboration on the Arabstat initiative, which aims at the development of efficient statistical systems in the region. The two parties also intend to carry out joint analytical work to inform Arab finance ministers and central bank governors, and to organise high level events on topics of mutual interests and priority for the region – The Kuwait Turk Bank will open in Frankfurt in July offering Shari’a compliant retail banking services having just received a licence from German market authorities. The bank already has a branch in Mannheim, but this new licence will allow it to operate as a fully functional bank in the country - The Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) is organising the third Joint ESAs Consumer Protection Day on 3 June 2015 in Frankfurt am Main. The event will bring together, from all over Europe, thought leaders of consumer/investor organisations, national regulators, EU institutions, academics and key market participants. The keynote speech will be delivered by Jonathan Hill, European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union. The focus will be on conduct risk; the next decade in the banking, insurance, pensions and securities sectors and the growing digitalisation of financial services. The Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities consists of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the European Banking Authority (EBA), and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA). The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 21.94 points or 0.62% lower to 3503.25, taking the year-to-date performance to +4.10%. The top active stocks today were SingTel, which declined 1.12%, DBS, which declined 0.80%, Keppel Corp, which closed unchanged, CapitaLand, which declined 1.09% and UOB, with a 0.29% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index fell 0.32%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index fell 0.57%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Health Care Index, which rose 1.77%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Raffles Medical Group and Biosensors International Group – ended 1.02% higher and 5.03% higher respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Utilities Index, which slipped 1.65%. United Envirotech shares rose 3.15% and Hyflux declined 1.07% - The performance of the UK buy-to-let (BTL) residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market remained steady in the three months ended February 2015, according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service. The 90+ day delinquency rate and outstanding repossessions stood at 0.7% and 0.1% respectively in February 2015, unchanged from November 2014. Moody's annualised total redemption rate decreased to 9.3% in February 2015 from 11.2% in November 2014, representing a 17.5% drop - Proserv and hazardous environment specialist JCE Group (UK) Limited have announced a strategic working partnership in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The agreement will see Proserv supporting JCE Group by offering its products and services whilst also delivering in-country engineering and technical support. Together, the companies aim to further build on their industry-leading standards of quality, service and reliability, and help cultivate a world-class QHSE culture - Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management (Deutsche AWM) has launched a physical replication exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the JPX-Nikkei 400 Index of Japanese stocks. At the same time, three new currency-hedged share classes of existing db X-trackers ETFs have also been listed. db x-trackers JPX-Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF (DR)1 tracks an index of 400 Japanese stocks selected on the basis of quantitative and qualitative screening. As the underlying index is not a standard capitalisation-weighted benchmark the ETF falls into the strategic beta – also known as ‘smart beta’ – category of investments.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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