Tuesday 26th July 2016
NEWS TICKER: JULY 26TH 2016: CACEIS is now depositary for the first two mutual ship funds under the German KAGB investment act. The two closed-end funds, “MS Marguerita” and “MS Tanja”, will both be managed by “MST AIFM Eins Fonds manager GmbH”, which is the investment management company of “MST Mineralien Schiffahrt Spedition und Transport GmbH.” Matthias M Ruttmann, managing director of MST explains: “We found CACEIS to be a flexible service provider, keen to seek out solutions for new asset types: Our ships will be the first of this asset type to be structured in a German AIF. We have put our trust in CACEIS`s experience in dealing with regulations and launching funds holding new asset types, so will have a solid framework for the launch of the funds.” Holger Sepp, Member of the Management Board at CACEIS in Germany added: “When entering the closed-end funds industry, we clearly committed ourselves to delivering depository service to all major asset types. We are very proud that MST has put its faith in CACEIS`s willingness and ability to service its ship AIFs. During the last couple of months, we have ensured we are fully prepared to handle all relevant requirements for the funds such as the depository function and relevant legal aspects.” -- Carillion, part of a 50:50 joint venture with Dutch Infrastructure Fund, have achieved financial closure on the Irish Schools Bundle 5 Public Private Partnership project that has been procured by the Department of Education & Skills alongside Ireland's National Treasury Management Agency. The joint venture will finance, build and operate five schools and an institute of further education located in counties Meath, Carlow, Wicklow and Wexford. The London-listed company said those construction activities alongside its equity interest will mean the project will generate around £190m of revenue for the business. Separately, EUS-Rokstad, a joint venture between Emera Utility Services and Rokstad Power, a business in which Carillion holds a 60% stake, has won a new contract in North America. The venture has been chosen by NSP Maritime Link Inc, a subsidiary of Emera Inc, as the transmission line contractor for its Maritime Link project that will transmit energy from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia and will connect Newfoundland to the North American grid for the first time in history. The joint venture will complete the high voltage direct current transmission line link under the contract, which is worth a total of £86m to the joint venture -

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Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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