Tuesday 4th August 2015
NEWS TICKER, Tuesday, AUGUST 4TH: The US inland revenue service says the FATCA International Data Exchange Service (IDES) will be unavailable this weekend from 6:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) (UTC/GMT -4) on Saturday, August 8th until 2:00 am EDT on Sunday, August 9th. This extends the regularly scheduled maintenance window by an additional 2 hours – According to Telecoms.com Apple has been trialling a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) service in the US and is in talks to launch one in Europe too. Apple filed a patent in 2006 detailing an MVNO set up in which Apple acts as the hub for a number of networks. The idea seems to be for there to be some kind of real-time process in which network operators effectively bid for business each time an Apple MVNO subscriber wants to make a call for example. Apple has already installed an embedded SIM in the latest iPads, so its interest in controlling the relationship between users of its devices and mobile networks is already apparent. The specialist web news service says that Apple is also reportedly working on using Siri to automatically transcribe voicemails. However, any application is years away. Symbiont, a pioneer in the use of the blockchain and distributed ledger technology in capital markets, today issued the first Smart Securities™ on the Bitcoin blockchain. Symbiont’s live platform allows institutions and investors to issue, manage, trade, clear, settle and transfer a range of financial instruments more efficiently on decentralized and distributed peer-to-peer financial networks that are cryptographically secured. Initial use cases for Smart Securities include corporate debt, syndicated loans, securitised instruments and private equity. Generically known as “smart contracts”, these instruments are programmable versions of traditional securities issued on any type of distributed ledger, such as a blockchain. Once a security is issued onto the ledger, it acts autonomously, eliminating traditionally manual mid- and back-office functions. Mark Smith, CEO and co-founder of Symbiont. “With interest in distributed ledger technology growing rapidly, financial institutions are exploring how to leverage it to improve the efficiency and security of trading and processing financial transactions. Smart Securities™ will ultimately change the way that financial instruments are issued, managed, and traded.” Symbiont was formed as a combination of MathMoney (fx) and Counterparty, the most successful Bitcoin 2.0 project, which was founded in 2013. Mark Smith is joined at Symbiont by co-founders Robbie Dermody (President); Evan Wagner (MD, Operations); and Adam Krellenstein (CTO).

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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