Sunday 4th October 2015
NEWS TICKER, OCTOBER 2ND 2015: Asian stock markets were mixed in trading today. The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 8.7 points or 0.31% lower to 2793.15, taking the year-to-date performance to -17.00%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which declined0.86%, Sinarmas Land, which gained 0.89%, SingTel, which declined 1.11%, CapitaLand, which gained 3.69% and UOB, with a1.72% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.35%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.35%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 ended 1.2% lower at 5052.02, following a patchy performance overnight in US markets, while South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.5% over the day. The Nikkei 225 ended flat. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which reopened after a holiday Thursday, was a rare bright spot for the region, up 3.2%, helped by slightly stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data reported yesterday. However, analysts continue to warn against reading too much into any short term data, the long term outlook for Asia is still strong, though short term, while everyone hangs on the outcome of US jobs and economic data, investors are tending towards extreme caution - The amount of outstanding Euro commercial paper (CP) and certificates of deposit (CD) has decreased by $880m in the latest week according to the CMDPortal. Corporate sector outstanding, decreased by $5.1bn during the week, while sovereign, supranational and agency outstandings increased by $3.9bn to $242. Financial outstandings have fallen by $30.3bn in the last eight weeks while outstanding of asset backed securities has increased by $652m. Commercial paper (CP) consists of short-term, promissory notes issued primarily by corporations. Maturities range up to 270 days but average about 30 days. Many companies use CP to raise cash needed for current transactions, and many find it to be a lower-cost alternative to bank loans - Moody's has downgraded the corporate family rating (CFR) and the probability of default rating (PDR) of Eurasian Resources Group Sarl (ERG) to Caa1and Caa1-PD, respectively, both with negative outlook. The rating downgrade is associated with the agency's decision to lower the Baseline Credit Assessment ('BCA') of ERG to caa2, from caa1 previously. The lowering of the BCA to caa2 reflects the deteriorated fundamental credit profile of ERG, due to its increased financial and liquidity risks, which the rating agency considers are not sufficiently mitigated by the company on a stand-alone basis. The BCA is a key factor behind the CFR, as defined according to the Government-Related Issuer ('GRI') rating methodology, which Moody's applies to ERG, given the Government of Kazakhstan (Baa2 stable) is a main shareholder with a 40% stake. Moody's assessment on the other main factors behind the CFR according to the GRI methodology remained unchanged. In particular, Default Dependence is still considered as high and Government Support as moderate. These assessments drive the one notch uplift on the BCA.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.

However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.


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