Tuesday 28th July 2015
NEWS TICKER, Tuesday July 28th: The Spanish Mercado Alternativo Bursátil (MAB) has admitted INCLAM to list on the market’s growth company segment. The company will trade from July 29th this year. Its trading code will be INC and trading will be through a price setting mechanism which will match buy and sell orders by means of two daily auction periods or “fixings”, at 12 hrs and at 16 hrs. Stratelis Advisors is acting as registered adviser and MG Valores SV as liquidity provider. - Moody's: Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji) Q.S.C.'s asset quality and capital strengths moderated by high reliance on market funding. Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji) Q.S.C. (AKB) benefits from a solid overall financial profile which is moderated by high reliance on market funding and concentration risks, says Moody's Investors Service in the report "Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji) Q.S.C: asset quality and capital strengths are moderated by high reliance on market funding" - While German SME’s continue to be plagued by recruiting problems, according to a new KfW survey fewer are bothered about filling employment vacancies than they were back in 2010. More women and older people in the working population, increasing labour mobility and the rise in skilled labour from other EU countries is helping filling the employment gap. Even so, the survey suggests that over the longer term, skilled labour shortages could be the order of the day – In a filing with the Luxembourg Stock Exchange Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten has given notice of amended final terms to the holders of TRY77.5m notes at 10.01% due June 17th 2025 (ISIN Code: XS1247665836 and Series no. 1214) issued under the bank’s €80bn debt issuance programme. The amendment includes provision that the issuer may settlement any payment due in respect of the notes in a currency other than that specified on the due date subject to pre-agreed conditions. Deutsche Bank London is the issuing and paying agent, while Deutsche Bank Luxembourg is listing agent, paying agent and transfer agent. The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 8.5% at 3725.56, its second-straight day of losses and worst daily percentage fall since February 27th, 2007. China's main index is up 6% from its recent low on July 8, but still off 28% from its high in June. The smaller Shenzhen Composite fell 7% to 2160.09 and the small-cap ChiNext Closed 7.4%. Lower at 2683.45. The drop comes as investors wonder how long the government’s buying of blue chip stocks can last. Clearly, the government can’t be seen to be pouring good money after bad to prop up what looks to be a failed strategy of propping up the market. Disappointing corporate earnings data across the globe has affected Asia’s main indices in today’s trading. The Hang Seng Index fell 2.7%. Australia's S&PASX 200 was down 0.2%, the Nikkei Stock Average fell 1% and South Korea's Kospi was off 0.4%. Turnover also remains depressed on Chinese exchanges, with around RMB1.2trn the average volume traded, compared to more than RMB2trn before this current downturn – In other news from the Asia Pacific, New Zealand’s Financial Markets Authority (FMA) has issued a Stop Order against Green Gardens Finance Trust Limited (GGFT) and warns the public to be wary of doing business or depositing money with this company. The Stop Order prohibits GGFT from offering, issuing, accepting applications for or advertising debt securities and/or accepting further contributions, investments or deposits for debt securities – Meantime, in Australia, the Federal Court has found that Astra Resources PLC (Astra Resources) and its subsidiary, Astra Consolidated Nominees Pty Ltd (Astra Nominees), breached the fundraising provisions of the Corporations Act, as part of civil proceedings brought by ASIC. In his judgment, Justice White upheld ASIC's claims that Astra Resources and Astra Nominees breached the Corporations Act by raising funds from investors without a prospectus or similar disclosure document, as required under the law.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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