Saturday 7th March 2015
NEWS TICKER, FRIDAY, MARCH 6TH 2015: —BNY Mellon has been appointed by Accor, the hotel operator based in France, as depositary bank for its sponsored American depositary receipt (ADR) program. Accor previously traded in the US as an unsponsored DR. Each sponsored ADR represents one-fifth of an ordinary share and trades on the OTC Markets under the symbol ‘ACCYY.’ Accor’s ordinary shares trade on Euronext Paris under the code ‘AC’— The US Inland Revenue Service (IRS) says the FATCA IDES User Guide has been updated for March 2015 and includes user enhancements and additional instructions. Copies can be downloaded from the IRS websiteimage003.pngThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York has reported gross purchases from February 26th through March 4th of $4,737m worth of agency MBS transactionsimage003.png More than 100 members of European Parliament (MEPs) have signed an open letter to the European Union’s Telecoms Council, urging it to adopt a more relaxed stance towards roaming charges. The Council is looking to extend the “phasing out” of charges until mid-2018, more than two and a half years later than initially laid out in the Roaming III regulation established in 2012. Roaming III, one of Neelie Kroes’ flagship motions in the move towards a single digital market, had previously required the abolishment of all roaming fees by the end of this year. “The Council stance sets up a new pricing mechanism, which will make it much cheaper to use your mobile phone when travelling abroad in the EU,” it said. “Within certain limits to be determined, consumers could make and receive calls, send SMSs and use data services without paying anything extra on top of the domestic fee.” It also suggests limitations under which operators will be able to levy charges against roamers. “Without a strong Telecoms Single Market, the much needed Digital Single Market cannot flourish,” they said, in an open letter to the Council of the European Union. “The European Parliament urged an end to roaming charges by the end of this year (2015). We consider proposed delays by three years (2018), or a suggestion to allow for 5MB without charges per day, to lack ambition. Such outcomes will undoubtedly seriously disappoint citizens. The gap between ending roaming charges, and 5MB per day is immeasurably large.” The open letter to the Telecoms Council concluded with a plea to put an end to roaming charges and clearly define net neutrality, stressing its significance for the future of Europe’s digital economies—Danish dedicated wind company Vestas has placed a seven year €500m eurobond with an interest rate of 2.75%, which the firm says will broaden the firm’s funding structure. The bonds, which will be listed in Luxembourg, will be repaid on March 11th 2022. According to Vestas CFO Marika Fredriksson, this is the first time a "green bond" had been issued by a dedicated wind company—An Taoiseach, Enda Kenny TD; the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, and Clive Bellows, Country Head Ireland at Northern Trust say the bank will expand its operations in Limerick by creating up to 300 new jobs over the next three years. The expansion is supported by the Department of Jobs through IDA Ireland —Despite reduced market volatility in February, total traded volume on the Tradeweb European-listed ETF platform amounted to €7.7bn in the month. This was the platform’s third best performance since launch, only beaten by last October’s €7.9bn and January’s record-breaking €10.7bn volume. According to the firm, there was a clear buying trend across all asset classes on the platform, with “buys” outstripping “sells” by 26 percentage points as a proportion of the overall traded volume. “Buy” requests for equity-based ETFs climbed to 42%, while “sell” requests fell 8 percentage points to 31 per cent compared to the past 12 months. Three of February’s ten most heavily traded ETFs invest in fixed income, offering exposure to government debt and USD-denominated high yield bonds—Global business advisory firm FTI Consulting, Inc says Mark Hunt has joined as senior managing director in the firm’s Forensic & Litigation Consulting practice. Mark will be based in London. As a Senior Forensic Partner with over thirty years’ experience, Mark specialises in financial and regulatory investigations, audit and accounting negligence, expert determinations and accounting disputes. His work has included a number of complex international disputes for both claimants and defendants, as well as acting as an expert on issues relating to complex financial instruments. Mark joins FTI Consulting from BDO, where he led their Financial Services practice, which included conducting FCA/PRA Skilled Persons Reviews. Prior to joining BDO in 2007, Mark was a Partner at KPMG, and he is also a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales. In his new role, Mark will join the EMEA Financial Advisory Services leadership group, working with Jeannette Lichner, Stephen Kingsley, Andrew Durant and Nick Hourigan to continue building FTI Consulting’s practice— The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +22.24 points higher or +0.66% to 3417.51, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.56%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.21% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.38%. The top active stocks were SingTel (+1.70%), DBS (+0.98%), Noble (+4.98%), Keppel Land (-0.22%) and Genting Singapore (-2.63). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index (+1.52%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index are SingTel (+1.70%) and StarHub (unchanged). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Health Care Index, which declined -0.55% with Raffles Medical Group’s share price declining -0.51% and Biosensors International Group’s share price declining -0.77%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the STI ETF (+0.59%), iShares USD Asia HY Bond ETF (-0.85%), SPDR Gold Shares (-0.42%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were CapitaMall Trust (-0.94%), Ascendas REIT (-0.40%), CapitaCom Trust (+0.28%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI25000MBeCW150429 (-4.12%), HSI24200MBePW150429 (+0.60%), HSI24400MBeCW150429 (-2.99%). The most active stock warrants by value today were DBS MB eCW150420 (+8.65%), OCBC Bk MBeCW150803 (unchanged), UOB MB eCW150701 (+2.10%).

Blog

The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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