Friday 28th November 2014
NEWS TICKER: THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27TH 2014: The Straits Times Index (STI) ended -8.70 points lower or -0.26% to 3340.96, taking the year-to-date performance to +5.56%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -0.11% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.43%. The top active stocks were SingTel (-0.26%), DBS (-0.25%), ThaiBev (-4.38%), Suntec REIT (+0.26%) and OCBC Bank (+0.10%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Health Care Index (+0.47%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Health Care Index are Raffles Medical Group (-0.52%) and Biosensors International Group (+2.75%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which declined -2.14% with Midas Holdings ’ share price declining -5.09% and Geo Energy Resources’ share price gaining +2.33%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (+0.26%), United SSE 50 China ETF (-0.57%), STI ETF (+0.59%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Suntec REIT (+0.26%), Ascendas REIT (-0.86%), CapitaCom Trust (-0.89%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI24400MBeCW141230 (-15.73%), HSI23800MBePW150129 (+6.45%), HSI23600MBePW141230 (+11.11%). The most active stock warrants by value today were DBS MB eCW150602 (+3.33%), UOB MB eCW150415 (+5.23%), UOB MB eCW150102 (+2.38%) - Moody's has withdrawn the rating of Rossiyskiy Kredit Bank's Caa3 long-term local- and foreign-currency deposit ratings, the Not Prime short-term deposit ratings and the E standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), equivalent to a caa3 baseline credit assessment. The ratings agency says the rating has been withdrawn for its own business reasons At the time of the withdrawal, the outlook on the bank's long-term ratings was negative while the standalone E BFSR carried a stable outlook - Malaysian builder MMC Corp Bhd said earlier today that it will list its power unit Malakoff Bhd (IPO-MALB.KL) in a deal bankers expect to raise more than $1bn dollars. The IPO, for up to 30.4% of Malakoff's capital, was deferred earlier this year and approval from the Securities Commission lapsed as a result. MMC, controlled by reclusive Malaysian tycoon Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary, will resubmit the application within one month and expects the deal to be completed by second quarter of 2015, according to a local stock exchange filing – According to local press report the newly minted Somalia Stock Exchange expects seven companies in the telecoms, financial services and transport sectors to list when it is set up in 2015. Somalia's economy is slowly recovering from more than two decades of conflict, although the government is still battling an Islamist insurgency. Amid the chaos, some businesses have thrived, including money transfer and mobile phone firms. The Somalia Stock Exchange has opened administrative offices in Mogadishu and other Somali centres like Kismayu, as well as in Nairobi, to help recruitment and in other related issues - Moody's has upgraded to Baa1 from Baa2 the long-term deposit ratings of China CITIC Bank International Limited, and affirmed the bank's P-2 short-term deposit ratings. The bank's senior unsecured MTN program rating and deposit note/CD program ratings are also upgraded to (P)Baa1/Baa1 from (P)Baa2/Baa2, while the short-term deposit note/CD program ratings are affirmed at (P)P-2. The bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) is unchanged at baa3. The outlook on all the ratings is stable. The rating action concludes Moody's review for upgrade for China CITIC Bank International, which was initiated on September 2nd this year, after the senior unsecured bond rating of its ultimate parents CITIC Group Corporation and CITIC Limited (formerly CITIC Pacific Limited) were upgraded to A3 from Baa2. CITIC Group Corporation, wholly owned by China's Ministry of Finance, owns 78% of CITIC Limited, which in turn owns 67% of China CITIC Bank.

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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