Tuesday 26th May 2015
NEWS TICKER: TUESDAY, MAY 26th: The National Settlement Depository (NSD), Russia’s central securities depository, today announced that Alexander Nazarov has been appointed director of research and development Department. Nazarov will be coordinating the issues of product range development and NSD service improvement. His new responsibilities will also include developing the company’s correspondent and international relations - The UK’s Personal Finance Society (PFS) has called for greater control of non-regulated savings and investment activity, by bringing it under ‘the same umbrella’ as regulated advice. PFS chief executive, Keith Richards, said there needs to be greater clarity in the mind of consumers, on the distinction between regulated investment advice and non-regulated activities. The value of bridging loans written in the year ended March 2015 have grown by almost a half on last year’s results, according to Association of Short Term Lenders ASTL's quarterly figures - The UK’s Association of Short Term Lenders (ASTL) has revealed in its quarterly figures that £2.35bn worth of loans were written by members in the year ended March 2015, where the overall loan book expanded by 43%compared to the same period in 2014. While bridging loan applications are still increasing with a 29% year-on-year rise, the figures showed that the pace has slowed from 63% growth. A 19% drop from Q4 2015 to the first quarter of this year was also highlighted, albeit “not considered to be a concern” – According to press reports, Richard Pyman has taken a leave of absence from his role as Chief Executive Officer at Shawbrook Bank due to illness. Pyman, who was appointed as CEO of the challenger bank in April 2014 after joining the group two years before, is taking temporary leave from his role after following medical advice. Pyman’s leave of absence was announced just as the group released its Q1 2015 results; and the bank began to bed down the proceeds from its early-April IPO, which raised £90m. Tom Wood, the lender’s Chief Financial Officer, will be filling in for Richard during his absence as interim Chief Executive Officer, while still continuing his normal role with support from Stephen Johnson - Cordea Savills, the international property investment manager has sold Erneside Shopping Centre, Enniskillen, Northern Ireland on behalf of a corporate pension fund client for £34.25m. The 163,000 sq ft shopping centre comprises 34 retail units and 666 car parking spaces. It is located in the centre of Enniskillen, the largest town in the region, and the dominant retail location. The centre, which is more than 97% let by floor area, is anchored by Marks & Spencer and Next which is currently being extended to include both their fashion and homeware formats. The asset was acquired by the Fund in 1995 and has evolved with two comprehensive phases of extension and remodelling in 1998-2000 and 2006-2008 -

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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