Friday 3rd July 2015
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY, JULY 3rd: Euronext says trading volumes for June 2015 and enterprise-wide activity for the first half year. During the first six months of 2015, Euronext posted the strongest six-month performance since the end of 2011 supported by favourable economic conditions. June average daily transaction value on the Euronext cash order book stood at €9,202m (+54% compared with June 2014). Activity on ETFs remained particularly dynamic last month with an average daily transaction value at €587m, up 106% compared to June 2014. Cash markets saw a material increase in trading activity across the first half of 2015, with an average daily transaction value for the period up 35% vs 2014. During this period, Euronext experienced three of the ten highest volume traded days since January 2012, and on march 20th the strongest single day of trading cash products of €18bn since the same date. In the meantime, the continued focus on nurturing domestic market share meant it returned to 65% for the month of June in a highly competitive environment - Morningstar has placed the Morningstar Analyst Rating for the Mirabaud Equities Swiss Small and Mid-fund Under Review following the appointment of new portfolio manager, Paul Schibli. The fund previously held a Neutral rating. Morningstar manager research analysts will meet with the new manager soon to reassess Morningstar’s opinion on the fund - Moody’s has today changed the outlook on all ratings of Bridge Holdco 4 Ltd, the ultimate holding company for Bridon Group, to stable from positive. Concurrently, the group's B3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), B3-PD Probability of Default Rating (PDR) as well as the B2 instrument rating on the USD286 million senior secured first lien term loan, $40m senior secured revolving credit facility and the Caa2 rating on the $111m senior secured second lien term loan borrowed by Bridge Finco LLC have been affirmed - Subsea 7 S.A. repurchase of convertible bonds has filed a notice with the Luxembourg stock exchange that it has repurchased convertible bonds worth $10m in nominal value at an average price of 91.5 of the $700m 1% Subsea 7 S.A. Convertible Bond Issue 2012/2017 (ISIN NO: 001066116.8). Following the purchase, the Company holds bonds with an aggregate nominal value of USD 91,800,000 representing approximately 13.1% of the 1.00% Subsea 7 S.A. Convertible Bond Issue 2012/2017 - Bellpenny says that its CEO, Kevin Ronaldson, will step down later this year to become ‘Founder Director’ of the business. Nigel Stockton, who has been a director of Bellpenny since inception, will, subject to FCA approval, become the new CEO. The changes are expected to take effect in September - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 14.89 points or 0.45% higher to 3342.73, taking the year-to-date performance to -0.67%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 2.00%, Singtel, which closed unchanged, Global Logistic, which declined 0.39%, Ascendas REIT, which gained 0.42% and UOB, with a 0.43% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.16%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.30%. Outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Financials Index, which rose 0.69%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - DBS Group Holdings and OCBC- ended 2.00% higher and 0.79% higher respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which slipped 0.89%. Midas Holdings shares declined 1.56% and NSL increased 0.67%.

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The European Review

By Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis

Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again

Friday, 27 July 2012 Written by 
Why the ECB will need to purchase bonds again Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Even if the European Central Bank (ECB) does not particularly like the idea, it will soon have to return to buying government bonds from several eurozone countries. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in a chain of events already taking place.

Earlier this year the ECB froze its securities market programme (SMP), which, since its inception in 2010, has bought over €210bn worth of sovereign bonds. The responsibility of buying sovereign bonds from various eurozone countries, it said, would now shift to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Despite the high level of interest rates in Spain and Italy, the ECB has not resumed its purchases of government bonds, and shows no enthusiasm for doing so. As mentioned, its official stance is that government bond purchases should be carried out by the EFSF/ESM.



However, many analysts (us included) believe the EFSF/ESM will not be able to react sufficiently – mainly due to its size but also the fact it lacks access to monetary creation, which the lender of last resort for governments must have.

To see the chain of events taking place, we only need look at the economic position of Spain, Italy, France and Portugal – which are all deteriorating. This reinforces the risk that investors will refuse to finance these countries, which will push interest rates to the point where there is a threat of default.

In these countries (obviously to different extents):

  • the private sector continues to deleverage;
  • the fiscal policy is and will be restrictive;
  • there is a decline in real wages since labour's bargaining power is weakening;
  • household demand is deteriorating, which leads to companies reducing their investment rate;
  • sluggish activity is leading to job losses and preventing these countries from improving their public finances; and
  • despite the decline in domestic demand in Italy, Spain and Portugal, there remains a substantial external deficit; in France, on the other hand, domestic demand has not started to fall yet, but the external deficit is rising.

The improvement in competitiveness due to the fall in wages (in Spain, Italy and Portugal, but not yet in France) is unable to improve foreign trade, either because the industrial sector is too small as a proportion of the whole economy (Spain, Portugal, France), or because this improvement is insufficient (Italy).

So there is clearly a downward spiralling risk. The crisis spreads from one country to the next via foreign trade and, since the external deficits are only partially being reduced, the crisis may be exacerbated by the rise in interest rates.

Therefore, we can see a continuous weakening of the economy. If the countries’ economic situation deteriorates, it will be increasingly difficult to finance their debts. Investors will be concerned about the countries’ situation and their solvency – in fiscal and external terms. Interest rates will rise further, and this means that countries and governments will be threatened with default.

Realistically, if this occurs the ECB will have to intervene because the officially planned solution (bond purchases by the EFSF/ESM) will not be sufficient. Given the size of the countries’ debts, the need to buy bonds will exceed the capacity of a bond issuer such as the EFSF/ESM – especially in the event of a bond market crisis affecting several eurozone countries.

Given that the lender of last resort for governments must have access to monetary creation, the only institution capable of buying bonds at the volumes required will be the ECB.

We believe that at the end of this process the ECB will have to intervene via massive government bond purchases (similar to the action taken by Bank of England). This is legal, provided that it relates to purchases in the secondary market, irrespective of some countries’ reservations.

Patrick Artus

A graduate of Ecole Polytechnique, of Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Adminstration Economique and of Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Patrick Artus is today the Chief Economist at Natixis. He began his career in 1975 where his work included economic forecasting and modelisation. He then worked at the Economics Department of the OECD (1980), before becoming Head of Research at the ENSAE. Thereafter, Patrick taught seminars on research at Paris Dauphine (1982) and was Professor at a number of Universities (including Dauphine, ENSAE, Centre des Hautes Etudes de l'Armement, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées and HEC Lausanne).

Patrick is now Professor of Economics at University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne. He combines these responsibilities with his research work at Natixis. Patrick was awarded "Best Economist of the year 1996" by the "Nouvel Economiste", and today is a member of the council of economic advisors to the French Prime Minister. He is also a board member at Total and Ipsos.

Website: cib.natixis.com/research/economic.aspx

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