Thursday 29th January 2015
NEWS TICKER: THURSDAY, JANUARY 29TH 2015: The January monthly energy review by the EIA was released yesterday evening. Preliminary estimates of US residential energy consumption suggest that for October 2014 total energy consumption equaled 1.3 quadrillion Btu, a 2% decrease from October 2013. Electricity retail sales and electrical system energy losses accounted for 73% of residential sector total energy consumption, while natural gas accounted for 16% of residential sector total energy consumption, renewable energy accounted for 6%, and petroleum accounted for 5% - Celent has released a new report, titled, IT Spending in Banking: A North American Perspective. The report is authored by Jacob Jegher, a research director with Celent's Banking practice. North American IT spending growth is rising steadily, he says, and is expected to be 4.5% higher in 2015. Growth will drop slightly in 2016 as IT spending by North American banks reaches US$64.8 billion, an increase of 4.2%. In the report, Celent examines, analyses, and contrasts the IT spending patterns of US and Canadian banks. The firm says North American bank IT spending will grow from $59.5bn in 2014 to $62.2bn in 2015. This year, the firm adds, is shaping up to be another promising one for retail banking; significant funds are still required to move forward and maintain self-service initiatives, digital banking projects/overhauls, branch transformation initiatives, and omni-channel endeavours. Additionally, mobile banking will continue to receive significant attention as banks aim to build on existing smartphone and tablet apps. Analytics, omni-channel banking, compliance/regulatory, and IT security investments will also be priorities. Spending on corporate banking will continue to climb through new component or module-based initiatives. Midsize banks are still very much looking to compete with larger banks that have invested significant amounts over the last several years. Small business is also a growing area of interest because banks still haven't figured out how to attack this distinct and attractive market segment. "The figures point to another strong year; 2015 is poised to build on the growth experienced last year," says Jegher. – The CME Group advises that the deadline to claim a SMART Click ID for GPS and BPS will be February 6th, 2015. After this date, there will no longer be an option to login with a Legacy ID and both applications will only be accessible with a SMART Click ID. Applicants can create a SMART Click ID (if you do not have one already) or claim your Legacy ID via the GPS and BPS portals and both applications must be claimed independently prior to the deadline. The CME says that after February 6th, the GPS and BPS applications will no longer be available via the CME Portal. These applications will only be available via ‘direct’ links following direct links: https://gps.cmegroup.com; https://bps.cmegroup.com; and https://login.cmegroup.com - China’s debt build up since the global financial crisis ranks as one of the largest in recent history (in the 97th percentile of debt-to-GDP changes in a sample of 55 countries over the past 50 years) according to Goldman Sachs’ latest Global Economics Weekly research report. The bank says the development is new and is a major global macro concern for investors. Deteriorating external conditions and declining investment efficiency have contributed to the debt build-up. The research team says that while the risk is significant, its analysis exploring the aftermath of large debt build-ups over the past half-century suggests that credit booms do not always end in deep recessions or banking crises. “GDP growth typically decelerates by at least 3-4pp after credit booms, although in China’s case some slowing has already occurred. Smoothing the adjustment process is likely to require increased central government fiscal outlays and policy interest rates should remain fairly low,” says the team. They add that while Chinese policy-makers have begun to address credit issues, significant imbalances still need to be worked off and capital market system development and reforms still need to be implemented more fully -

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Regulatory Update

Lessons from an Industry Titan: Jamie Dimon’s Testimony

Friday, 15 June 2012 Written by 
Lessons from an Industry Titan: Jamie Dimon’s Testimony This week, J.P. Morgan Chase’s CEO, the highly regarded Jamie Dimon, testified before the US Senate banking committee regarding the failures of its Chief Investment Office (CIO), the group responsible for certain well-publicized losses. We thought his testimony provided more than a few lessons on governance matters and the state of the world generally. Here they are: http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

This week, J.P. Morgan Chase’s CEO, the highly regarded Jamie Dimon, testified before the US Senate banking committee regarding the failures of its Chief Investment Office (CIO), the group responsible for certain well-publicized losses. We thought his testimony provided more than a few lessons on governance matters and the state of the world generally. Here they are:

"[W]e are still reviewing the facts...”

Lesson: Never speak out publicly in a definitive way until you fully know the facts.  You will not fully know the facts for months.



"...I will explain everything I can to the extent possible."

Lesson: Even for Dimon, transparency matters.

"CIO's strategy...was poorly conceived and vetted.  The strategy was not carefully analyzed or subjected to rigorous stress testing.... CIO's traders did not have the requisite understanding of the risks they took.”

Lesson: Didn’t we learn this lesson in 2008? Back then we learned that some strategies had assumptions that seemed poorly founded in retrospect. This was particularly true about the behavior of the mortgage markets and their derivatives.  Guess the lesson is that most people never learn this lesson. Before a system or strategy is implemented, and periodically thereafter, management (including the board) should ask the probing questions. Make no assumptions on this score.

"Personnel in key control roles in CIO were in transition and risk control functions were generally ineffective in challenging the judgment of CIO's trading personnel.”

Lesson: The press reported that the CIO’s then-current chief risk officer began to internally express his concerns about London office trading strategies last year. This past January, he was replaced as the head of risk by a former trader who, at least according to the press reports, had no prior risk management experience. This lesson relates to human nature: it's very hard to appreciate someone who has a different point of view. Watch out – he may be right.

"Risk Committee structures and processes in CIO were not as formal or robust as they should have been.”

Lesson: Assessments have to be substantive, robust, and “real”, and be tested and documented regularly as assumptions and/or reality changes. Structure, process and formality may not protect you from all losses, but they can provide a protective shield that will hopefully mitigate them. Be sure to build your protective shield. 

 

Deborah Prutzman

Deborah Prutzman is the founder and CEO of The Regulatory Fundamentals Group (RFG), a New York-based firm that designs and implements business and risk solutions for alternative asset managers and institutional investors. RFG's senior-led team employs a robust suite of tools, including practical alerts on new and potential industry developments and its powerful RFG Pathfinder® knowledge management platform which simplifies the challenges of operating in a regulated environment.  To learn more about The Regulatory Fundamentals Group call (212) 537-4058, email a representative at Information@RegFG.com or visit RegFG.com

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