Friday 29th July 2016
NEWS TICKER: JULY 28TH 2016: The Prysmian Group's first-half results are marked by revenue growth and a significant improvement in profitability. Explains CEO Valerio Battista. "The biggest drivers of growth have been Energy Projects and Telecom. The important set of technological innovations introduced between end of 2015 and 2016, involving the launch of the 600kV and 700kV cable systems, combined with greater project execution capabilities, involving the commissioning of Ulisse, the Group's third cable vessel, mean the Group is well positioned to continue taking advantage of the opportunities offered by the market. In the Telecom business, growth has been driven by the recovery in optical fibre competitiveness and the new optical cable manufacturing capacity in Eastern Europe. Performance by the higher value-added businesses has contributed to a fresh upturn in profitability, with a significant improvement in margins, also thanks to our actions to reduce fixed costs and rationalise manufacturing footprint. The newly acquired Oman Cables Industry has also made an important contribution in this regard." – The Samsung Electronics board has decided to make additional investments in Samsung Venture Investment Corporation's, an affiliated company of Samsung Electronics, New Technology Investment Funds. SVIC plans to establish a new venture fund, SVIC 32. SVIC 32 is a cooperative fund with its investment focus on the latest technologies to enhance competitiveness of existing set businesses and identify future growth businesses. The transaction is expected occur during the third quarter of 2016. The transaction size is KRW 198bn (99% of the total fund: KRW200bn) -- As a slug of generally positive data emerges from the UK this week, and commenting on today’s corporate results, Richard Marwood, senior fund manager at Royal London Asset Management, says, “Today’s flurry of corporate earnings suggests that as yet the outcome of the EU referendum has not had a major impact on many UK listed companies, outside of the movements in currencies. Without a clear financial picture of the impact, many CEOs are at pains to highlight the resilience of their business and their willingness to take strong action if required. I would expect the bid for ARM to herald a period of heightened corporate activity. The increased offer for Premier Farnell is another clear example of overseas bidders taking advantage of a depressed pound to snap up UK assets.” -- Singapore Exchange (SGX) today welcomed EC World REIT to Mainboard under the stock code “BWCU”. EC World REIT is the first Chinese specialised logistics and e-commerce logistics REIT to be listed on SGX. With an initial geographical focus on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the REIT invests in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate primarily used for e-commerce, supply-chain management and logistics purposes. Peter Lai Hock Meng, Chief Executive Officer of EC World Asset Management Pte. Ltd., the Manager of EC World REIT, said, “We are pleased to celebrate EC World REIT’s successful listing and trading today and we would like to extend our sincere appreciation to all investors for making this milestone possible. Our IPO portfolio of six quality properties offers investors unique exposure to the logistics and e-commerce sectors in Hangzhou - one of the largest e-commerce hubs in China.” – Emerging markets assets benefitted in the Asian session today as the dollar retreated following the US Fed’s decision yesterday to do nothing. Yields on US government bonds declined slightly in the hours following the release of the monetary policy statement. The fall on the long end was with 6 basis points and was more pronounced than the drop on the short end of 3 basis points (bps). The dollar lost 3/4 of a cent vs the euro and stood this morning at 1.107 EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve stopped short of signalling a near-term increase in US interest rates, and while a December move is seen as likely, markets are focusing instead on the extra stimulus Japan's government is expected to deliver tomorrow. A subsequent retreat in the retreat boosted emerging assets in the Asian session with stocks at new 11-month highs despite fresh wobbles on Chinese equity markets. The Straits Times Index meantime (STI) ended 23.88 points or 0.81% lower to 2917.61, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.21%. The top active stocks today were DBS, which declined 2.34%, Singtel, which declined 0.46%, UOB, which declined 1.27%, OCBC Bank, which declined 0.57% and Wilmar Intl, with a close unchanged. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.04%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.88%. MSCI's emerging equity index rose 0.25% despite pullbacks in Asian markets, where some concern is rising over volatility in China and the weakening yen. Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese shares fell as much as 3% at one point before recovering as new regulations are expected to prompt wealth managers at small banks to bail out of stocks and into bonds. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira continues to recover, firming to one-week highs. In emerging Europe, Turkish assets continued their post-coup recovery, shrugging off a worsening crackdown on alleged plotters. Stocks jumped 1 percent to one-week highs while the lira was flat, also near one-week highs. Turkey's economic confidence index hit also touched its highest level so far this year in July, rising 14.9% to 95.7. In Africa meantime, the temperature is different. the Nigerian naira hit new record lows against the dollar on Wednesday, shrugging off a rate increase of 200 basis points (bps). Traders are also waiting to see if Egypt will announce plans to devalue its pound at a central bank meeting. Cairo stocks pulled off three-month highs hit after news the government was in loan talks with the International Monetary Fund. The government’s 2025 dollar bond, which rose 4% after the news, eased half a percent. Poland too is in the spotlight today as the European Commission's statement yesterday gave Warsaw three months to address rule of law concerns. In early trading today Polish stocks extended losses, falling 0.7% and the zloty lost 0.2.%.

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Regulatory Update

The Euro: Preparing for the Unthinkable

Tuesday, 26 June 2012 Written by 
The Euro: Preparing for the Unthinkable One day in 1974, payments failed to move across the leading US dollar payment mechanism, CHIPS, operated by The New York Clearing House. Earlier that day, German regulators had closed a relatively small bank, Bank Herstatt, in Cologne.  Following this closure, banks stopped sending funds to one another; no bank knew whether the recipient might have exposure to Herstatt (and thus might experience unacceptable losses). To their credit, bank regulators spent much of the following decades addressing this risk, both in the payments market and in the FX market through the CLS system. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

One day in 1974, payments failed to move across the leading US dollar payment mechanism, CHIPS, operated by The New York Clearing House. Earlier that day, German regulators had closed a relatively small bank, Bank Herstatt, in Cologne.  Following this closure, banks stopped sending funds to one another; no bank knew whether the recipient might have exposure to Herstatt (and thus might experience unacceptable losses). To their credit, bank regulators spent much of the following decades addressing this risk, both in the payments market and in the FX market through the CLS system.

Although I was General Counsel of the Clearing House and CLS, participating in these and related developments, it took the events of 2007 and 2008 to drive home their significance. Now, with  a slow-down in the world economy and even the possible demise of the euro, do we once again need to prepare for the unthinkable? And how can any individual firm do so?

At the very least firms need to recognize that these types of risks cannot be managed in silos; there must be a cohesive approach across all business areas and breakpoints – from liquidity and credit risks to regulatory and reputational risks.  If the euro is redenominated, businesses may face market closures, reversion to and rapid devaluation of legacy currencies, mandatory bank holidays, restrictions on convertibility, and a lack of liquidity.  A scenario analysis can help identify how such developments might impact key clients, key markets, and most critically –in the short term – liquidity needs. The information gathered in this analysis should be factored into credit and risk management plans. But most importantly, it needs to be communicated to key people. Your board and your staff need to be prepared for various scenarios, and you may also need to communicate with regulators and suppliers.  A careful analysis of and preparation for all contingencies can help a firm survive even the unthinkable.

Deborah Prutzman

Deborah Prutzman is the founder and CEO of The Regulatory Fundamentals Group (RFG), a New York-based firm that designs and implements business and risk solutions for alternative asset managers and institutional investors. RFG's senior-led team employs a robust suite of tools, including practical alerts on new and potential industry developments and its powerful RFG Pathfinder® knowledge management platform which simplifies the challenges of operating in a regulated environment.  To learn more about The Regulatory Fundamentals Group call (212) 537-4058, email a representative at Information@RegFG.com or visit RegFG.com

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