The Euro: Preparing for the UnthinkableOne day in 1974, payments failed to move across the leading US dollar payment mechanism, CHIPS, operated by The New York Clearing House. Earlier that day, German regulators had closed a relatively small bank, Bank Herstatt, in Cologne. Following this closure, banks stopped sending funds to one another; no bank knew whether the recipient might have exposure to Herstatt (and thus might experience unacceptable losses). To their credit, bank regulators spent much of the following decades addressing this risk, both in the payments market and in the FX market through the CLS system.http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/
One day in 1974, payments failed to move across the leading US dollar payment mechanism, CHIPS, operated by The New York Clearing House. Earlier that day, German regulators had closed a relatively small bank, Bank Herstatt, in Cologne. Following this closure, banks stopped sending funds to one another; no bank knew whether the recipient might have exposure to Herstatt (and thus might experience unacceptable losses). To their credit, bank regulators spent much of the following decades addressing this risk, both in the payments market and in the FX market through the CLS system.
Although I was General Counsel of the Clearing House and CLS, participating in these and related developments, it took the events of 2007 and 2008 to drive home their significance. Now, with a slow-down in the world economy and even the possible demise of the euro, do we once again need to prepare for the unthinkable? And how can any individual firm do so?
At the very least firms need to recognize that these types of risks cannot be managed in silos; there must be a cohesive approach across all business areas and breakpoints – from liquidity and credit risks to regulatory and reputational risks. If the euro is redenominated, businesses may face market closures, reversion to and rapid devaluation of legacy currencies, mandatory bank holidays, restrictions on convertibility, and a lack of liquidity. A scenario analysis can help identify how such developments might impact key clients, key markets, and most critically –in the short term – liquidity needs. The information gathered in this analysis should be factored into credit and risk management plans. But most importantly, it needs to be communicated to key people. Your board and your staff need to be prepared for various scenarios, and you may also need to communicate with regulators and suppliers. A careful analysis of and preparation for all contingencies can help a firm survive even the unthinkable.
Deborah Prutzman is the founder and CEO of The Regulatory Fundamentals Group (RFG), a New York-based firm that designs and implements business and risk solutions for alternative asset managers and institutional investors. RFG's senior-led team employs a robust suite of tools, including practical alerts on new and potential industry developments and its powerful RFG Pathfinder® knowledge management platform which simplifies the challenges of operating in a regulated environment. To learn more about The Regulatory Fundamentals Group call (212) 537-4058, email a representative at Information@RegFG.com or visit RegFG.com
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