Sunday 25th January 2015
FRIDAY, JANUARY 23RD 2015: European markets regulator ESMA has added Athens Exchange Clearing House to its list of authorised CCPs under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). EMIR requires EU-based CCPs to be authorised and non-EU CCPs to be recognised in the European Union (EU). The updated list of authorised CCPs is available on ESMA's website - Driven by strengthening private domestic demand, economic growth in the US is expected to accelerate modestly this year and drag last year’s unspectacular housing activity upward, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Amid continued low gasoline prices, a firming labour market conditions, rising household net worth, improving consumer and business confidence, and reduced fiscal headwinds, the economy is expected to climb to 3.1% in 2015, up from the Group’s estimate of 2.7% in the prior forecast. The stronger economic backdrop should lead to improving income prospects, underpinning a higher rate of household formation in 2015. "Our theme for the year, Economy Drags Housing Upward, implies that both housing and the economy will pick up some speed in 2015, but that the economy will grow at a faster pace," says Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. "We have revised upward our full-year economic growth forecast to 3.1% for 2015, which is not yet robust but still an improvement over last year’s growth. Consumer spending should continue to strengthen due in large part to lower gas prices, giving further support to auto sales and manufacturing. We believe this will motivate the Federal Reserve to begin measures to normalize monetary policy in the third quarter of this year, continuing at a cautiously steady pace into 2016 and 2017, likely keeping interest rates relatively low for some time." - The Russian Central bank said yesterday that its gold reserves grew by a 600,000 ounces (18.7 tonnes) in December – the ninth successive month of gold reserve increases. Russia has now more than tripled its gold reserves in the past ten years. The ruble has fallen in value by almost 50% in the past 12 months which makes the nation’s gold reserves ever more important to its global economic status – According to LuxCSD the Taiwan Depository and Clearing Corporation (TDCC) has announced, effective Sunday (January 25th) the firm’s BIC will change from TDCCTWT1 to TDCCTWTP. Customers should quote the TDCC's new BIC in field 95P::PSET//TDCCTWTP of their settlement instructions – Moody's today upgraded the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of Stabilus S.A. to B1 from B2 and the Probability of Default Rating (PDR) to B1-PD from B2-PD. At the same time the rating agency upgraded the instrument ratings assigned to the Senior Secured Notes issued by Servus Luxembourg Holding S.C.A. to B1 from B2. The outlook on all ratings remains positive – The US Federal Reserve Bank of New York says its daily Fed Funds effective rate is now 0.12% (Low 0.30%, High 0.3125%) with four basis points of standard deviation - Vanguard Group, already the biggest mutual fund company in the world, has risen to second place as a provider of exchange-traded funds, says ETF.com—based on the success of its low-cost index funds, including ETFs. Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, has dropped from second to third. Even so, SSGA still has the largest ETF in the world, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY | A-98) - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +41.21 points higher or +1.22% to 3411.5, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.38%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.97% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.23%. The top active stocks were CapitaLand (+4.09%), DBS (+0.80%), SingTel (+0.76%), UOB (+0.72%) and Noble (-0.47%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index (+2.31%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index are Hongkong Land Holdings (+1.18%) and Global Logistic Properties (+1.57%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Oil & Gas Index, which gained +0.16% with Keppel Corp’s share price unchanged and Sembcorp Industries’s share price declining +0.93%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the SPDR Gold Shares (+0.77%), IS MSCI India (+1.89%), DBXT MSCI Asia Ex Japan ETF (+1.57%) –

Blog

Regulatory Update

Traders Beware, Focus Could Shift Quickly in Your Direction

Monday, 16 July 2012 Written by 
Traders Beware, Focus Could Shift Quickly in Your Direction Some unsettling stories continue to unfold. One is Peregrine Financial Group, which managed to combine some of the most memorable red flags of the Madoff and MF Global scandals without attracting a regulatory response from the CFTC. (PFG represented that it held more than $220 million of customer funds when in reality it held approximately $5.1 million.) http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Some unsettling stories continue to unfold.

One is Peregrine Financial Group, which managed to combine some of the most memorable red flags of the Madoff and MF Global scandals without attracting a regulatory response from the CFTC. (PFG represented that it held more than $220 million of customer funds when in reality it held approximately $5.1 million.)

The second involved information stemming from the Barclay’s Libor scandal—in particular, exactly how much was known, when, and by what regulators.  The NY Fed, confirming that it received reports about Libor issues in 2007 and 2008, on Friday released documents showing it took “prompt action four years ago to highlight problems.”  The actions of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who headed the New York Fed from 2003 until 2009, may be heavily scrutinized.  So will those of the U.K. authorities.

And then there is the recent announcement by JPMorgan of possible valuation discrepancies by its traders. According to JPMorgan’s chief financial officer, a restatement may be necessary based upon facts uncovered “regarding the CIO traders’ intent as they were marking the book. And as a result, we questioned the integrity of those trader marks.”



What impact will this have on the regulatory climate?  Clearly, the regulators will be under tremendous pressure.  Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, noted Peregrine “raises serious questions about our current regulators and whether they are capable of doing their jobs.”  Others are also voicing concerns.  In turn, the regulators are likely to respond by increasing their oversight.

And as they do so, traders in particular may be in the line of fire.  Reflecting on LIBOR, Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “the idea that a bunch of traders can start e-mailing each other . . . and play around with . . . [the Libor] rate . . . is not good for the system.”  This is the type of concern that prompted the CFTC this past April to pass rules for swap participants, which basically wall off traders from the rest of the firm.  Traders cannot supervise or influence the compensation of research analysts or clearing unit employees.  In some cases, communications with traders are prohibited unless the communication is made through the firm’s compliance department.  Both the Libor scandal and the J.P. Morgan trading loss, coupled perhaps with a few new situations brewing in the background, might give this type of thinking a major boost.

Deborah Prutzman

Deborah Prutzman is the founder and CEO of The Regulatory Fundamentals Group (RFG), a New York-based firm that designs and implements business and risk solutions for alternative asset managers and institutional investors. RFG's senior-led team employs a robust suite of tools, including practical alerts on new and potential industry developments and its powerful RFG Pathfinder® knowledge management platform which simplifies the challenges of operating in a regulated environment.  To learn more about The Regulatory Fundamentals Group call (212) 537-4058, email a representative at Information@RegFG.com or visit RegFG.com

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