Saturday 26th July 2014
slib33
FRIDAY ANALYSTS TICKER: July 25th 2014 - According to Adam Cordery, global head of European fixed income, Santander Asset Management, and fund manager for the Santander Euro Corporate Short Term and Euro Corporate bond funds, “Pricing of risk assets doesn’t offer much of a margin for error at the moment. And now Europe is starting to go on holiday, market liquidity may get poorer than normal, and any buys today may well have to be holds until September. It is always interesting to note what yields are required to attract clients to financial products. Twenty years ago, bond funds offering yields of 10%+ could generally attract lots of client interest very quickly. However as rates have come down over the years, so the yields clients demand have fallen. Now 4% seems to be the new 10%, he say. Cordery thinks that unfortunately, investors often want today the yield/risk mix that was available last year, so the products that get launched, sold and bought in size may be more risky than people think. “Products with 4% yield will sell well today, but to get to a 4% yield in Euro you need to invest in a portfolio with an average rating of single-B, and that is far from being risk-free. I get the impression the conventional wisdom today is to think that interest rates must surely go up soon and the main risk to bond portfolios is an increase in bund yields. Because of this many investors are buying short-duration products and floating rate notes, perhaps viewing them as a safe choice, almost like cash. It is possible however that these products may yet prove to have a considerable sensitivity to changes in credit market spreads and/or bond market liquidity, and may prove to be no protection at all.” - Commenting on the RBS share price jump, Dr Pete Hahn of Cass Business School, says “It's hard to tell whether the RBS share price jump today is more about relief or optimism. The former is about fewer fines, fewer losses on loans, and fewer costs in a shrinking business and possibly dividends for shareholders. And there's the rub, owning shares (as opposed to interest bearing debt) should be about optimism and long-term growth in dividends. But from a shrinking business? Few would argue that RBS' retail and corporate bank had efficiencies to be gained and cash flow that might be converted to dividends; yet like most banks, RBS' cost of equity remains stubbornly and appropriately above its ability to provide a return on that equity. For shareholders, current improvements should mean dividends in the medium term but a recognition that RBS may lack any merit for new investment and delivering any long-term dividend growth - not good. While many large retail banks are getting safer, in some aspects, and we often speak of them in terms of moving toward utility type models, banks take risks, are cyclical, face competition, have new business challengers, and are simply are not utilities. Investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves here.” - According to the monthly survey held by the central bank of Turkey, the country’s capacity utilization (CU) rate declined slightly to 74.9% in July from 75.3% in June. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted (SA) CU also declined to 74.3% from 74.7% in June, writes Mehmet Besimoglu at Oyak Yatirim Research. As for manufacturing confidence, the index declined to 109 from 110.7 in May. On SA basis, the index also edged down slightly to 106.4 from 107.2. SA capacity utilisation was broadly stable in 1H14, averaging at 74.7%. This is the same level with the 2013 average. Despite the political turmoil and volatility in financial markets, activity has been relatively resilient. Export recovery & government spending supported production in 1H. Following the elections, public spending relatively decelerated. The turmoil in Iraq also decelerated export recovery from June. Nevertheless, we still expect 3.5% GDP growth in 2014, writes Besimoglu.

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Regulatory Update

Traders Beware, Focus Could Shift Quickly in Your Direction

Monday, 16 July 2012 Written by 
Traders Beware, Focus Could Shift Quickly in Your Direction Some unsettling stories continue to unfold. One is Peregrine Financial Group, which managed to combine some of the most memorable red flags of the Madoff and MF Global scandals without attracting a regulatory response from the CFTC. (PFG represented that it held more than $220 million of customer funds when in reality it held approximately $5.1 million.) http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Some unsettling stories continue to unfold.

One is Peregrine Financial Group, which managed to combine some of the most memorable red flags of the Madoff and MF Global scandals without attracting a regulatory response from the CFTC. (PFG represented that it held more than $220 million of customer funds when in reality it held approximately $5.1 million.)

The second involved information stemming from the Barclay’s Libor scandal—in particular, exactly how much was known, when, and by what regulators.  The NY Fed, confirming that it received reports about Libor issues in 2007 and 2008, on Friday released documents showing it took “prompt action four years ago to highlight problems.”  The actions of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who headed the New York Fed from 2003 until 2009, may be heavily scrutinized.  So will those of the U.K. authorities.

And then there is the recent announcement by JPMorgan of possible valuation discrepancies by its traders. According to JPMorgan’s chief financial officer, a restatement may be necessary based upon facts uncovered “regarding the CIO traders’ intent as they were marking the book. And as a result, we questioned the integrity of those trader marks.”

What impact will this have on the regulatory climate?  Clearly, the regulators will be under tremendous pressure.  Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, noted Peregrine “raises serious questions about our current regulators and whether they are capable of doing their jobs.”  Others are also voicing concerns.  In turn, the regulators are likely to respond by increasing their oversight.

And as they do so, traders in particular may be in the line of fire.  Reflecting on LIBOR, Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, “the idea that a bunch of traders can start e-mailing each other . . . and play around with . . . [the Libor] rate . . . is not good for the system.”  This is the type of concern that prompted the CFTC this past April to pass rules for swap participants, which basically wall off traders from the rest of the firm.  Traders cannot supervise or influence the compensation of research analysts or clearing unit employees.  In some cases, communications with traders are prohibited unless the communication is made through the firm’s compliance department.  Both the Libor scandal and the J.P. Morgan trading loss, coupled perhaps with a few new situations brewing in the background, might give this type of thinking a major boost.

Deborah Prutzman

Deborah Prutzman is the founder and CEO of The Regulatory Fundamentals Group (RFG), a New York-based firm that designs and implements business and risk solutions for alternative asset managers and institutional investors. RFG's senior-led team employs a robust suite of tools, including practical alerts on new and potential industry developments and its powerful RFG Pathfinder® knowledge management platform which simplifies the challenges of operating in a regulated environment.  To learn more about The Regulatory Fundamentals Group call (212) 537-4058, email a representative at Information@RegFG.com or visit RegFG.com

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