Tuesday 24th May 2016
News ticker: Chubb today announced the appointment of Joe Fernandez, formerly D&O and Financial Institutions Product Manager for legacy ACE in Continental Europe, to the new role of financial lines product manager for Eurasia and Africa for Chubb, as it continues to invest in building its insurance capabilities in its newest business region. In his new role, Joe will be responsible for the development and implementation of financial lines underwriting strategies in Eurasia and Africa. He will also be responsible for employee financial lines products training. Joe will continue to be based in London, reporting to Grant Cairns, financial lines manager for Chubb in the UK and Ireland. His appointment is effective immediately. Fernandez has 18 years of insurance industry experience. He joined ACE in 2004 as corporate manager for Commercial D&O. Previously he held the position of corporate manager for Commercial D&O at AIG— Commenting on Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s Annual General Meeting, Ashley Hamilton Claxton, corporate governance manager at Royal London Asset Management, said: “The senior executive pay awards last year are not sufficiently justified by the company’s financial performance. We remain disappointed that the chief executive received very close to the maximum possible bonus in a year when overall financial performance was weak. Whilst the board did exercise some discretion in reducing the awards, we believe they could have done more. We also think the peer group of four companies that Shell uses to benchmark its long term incentive plans (LTIPs) is too narrow. However, we do acknowledge that despite a tough operating year, the company has had several successes in 2015, including the completion of the BG Group deal. We also appreciate that Shell has made very positive steps in responding to the concerns raised by its investors and we will be engaging with the company going forward.” Royal London Asset Management holds shares in Royal Dutch Shell worth £936m - UBS AG has opened a stock-index futures brokerage service in China. The brokerage will support clients wanting to trade on futures on the CSI 300, SSE 50 and CSI 500 indexes as well as treasury futures say local press reports - Tuesday, May 24th: Pakistan reportedly plans to sell a 40% stake in its stock exchange according to its managing director Nadeem Naqvi who announced the sale at an investment conference organised by Renaissance Capital in London yesterday. The exchange has approached the London, Shanghai, Istanbul and Qatar stock exchanges he said, explaining that a further 20% share will be sold in the local stock market. The sell-off is part of a government led privatisation program, involving some 70 companies following the disbursement of a $6.7bn IMF rescue package back in 2013. The terms of the loan end in September - Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has confirmed the Ba3 corporate family rating (CFR) and Ba3-PD probability of default rating (PDR) of Russian vertically integrated steel and mining company Evraz Group S.A. (Evraz), and the B1 (LGD 5) senior unsecured ratings assigned to the notes issued by Evraz and Raspadskaya Securities Ltd. The outlook on all the ratings is negative – According to defence title Janes, The China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation (CNEC) - one of China’s 10 key defence industrial enterprises - has entered an agreement with China's Minsheng Banking Corp to support its impending initial public offering (IPO) of 2.6bn shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is expected to raise around $250m. China's State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND), which oversees the development of the country's aerospace and defence industry, said on 23 May that the agreement with the bank will support CNEC's "leap forward" towards "strategic development" - Thailand-based developer of integrated e-logistics trading and e-business service solutions Netbay says it is planning to offer 40m shares, equivalent to 20% of the registered and paid-up capital, in an initial public offering (IPO) and expects to get listed on the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) next month. The company has the registered capital of THB200m. The firm has reportedly s appointed Maybank Kim Eng (Thailand) as financial advisor and underwriter. Netbay CEO Pichit Viwatrujira-pong says that the proceeds would be used to expand its business and increase the working capital. It targets the revenue growth of 20% this year, up from THB223m last year – Old Mutual has moved closer to the IPO of Old Mutual Wealth next year as it confirmed in a JSE announcement today that it was close to selling its stake in Old Mutual Asset Management (OMAM) to Affiliated Managers’ Group in a deal valued at $1bn - Zhouheiya Food Co. is expected to file an application for a Hong Kong listing in the next couple of weeks, looking to raise up to $500m, reports the Wall Street Journal today - UK operator Vodafone has announced its Group Chief Commercial Operations and Strategy Officer, Paolo Bertoluzzo, is going to step down after 17 years with the company to take a CEO role at payment and general financial services company Istituto Centrale delle Banche Popolari Italiane (ICBPI). Vodafone says it will announce a successor in ‘due course’ - The number of money laundering convictions and confiscations is relatively low given the size and characteristics of Jersey’s financial sector according to the latest report on the UK’s Crown Dependency of Jersey from the Council of Europe’s Committee of Experts on the Evaluation of Anti-Money Laundering Measures and the Financing of Terrorism (MONEYVAL), adopted in December 2015. Apparently, this is the last in a cycle of MONEYVAL evaluation reports based on methodology set out by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in 2004. MONEYVAL is currently evaluating its members according to the FATF’s updated 2013 methodology.

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What kind of economy would the euro zone be without Germany?

Thursday, 28 June 2012 Written by 
What kind of economy would the euro zone be without Germany? There is increasing talk about establishing federalist mechanisms (eurobonds, eurobills) and pooling certain risks and investments between euro-zone countries (European bank guarantees, recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF-ESM, increased investments by the EIB, EFSF-ESM access to ECB funding, purchases of government bonds by the ECB). Germany's criticism of these proposals is that they ultimately place all the costs and all the risks on Germany, due to its economic, fiscal and financial situation and its credibility in financial markets. It is claimed that eventually all the bills will be sent to Germany, since the other euro area countries have no fiscal or financial leeway or any credibility to guarantee deposits and loans. We shall therefore examine the economy of the euro zone excluding Germany and ask the question: Is it in such a bad situation that federalism or the pooling of risks and investments between euro-zone countries would in fact amount to potentially placing the entire burden on Germany? We think that Germany’s fears are justified. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

There is increasing talk about establishing federalist mechanisms (eurobonds, eurobills) and pooling certain risks and investments between euro-zone countries (European bank guarantees, recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF-ESM, increased investments by the EIB, EFSF-ESM access to ECB funding, purchases of government bonds by the ECB). Germany's criticism of these proposals is that they ultimately place all the costs and all the risks on Germany, due to its economic, fiscal and financial situation and its credibility in financial markets. It is claimed that eventually all the bills will be sent to Germany, since the other euro area countries have no fiscal or financial leeway or any credibility to guarantee deposits and loans.

We shall therefore examine the economy of the euro zone excluding Germany and ask the question: Is it in such a bad situation that federalism or the pooling of risks and investments between euro-zone countries would in fact amount to potentially placing the entire burden on Germany?

We think that Germany’s fears are justified.

Federalism: pooling between euro-zone countries

The resolution of the euro-zone crisis will inevitably involve establishing certain forms of federalism (eurobonds, eurobills) and the pooling of certain investments and risks (a European bank guarantee system, the recapitalisation of the banks (e.g. Spanish banks) by the EFSF-ESM, an increase in structural funds or investments by the EIB, ESM access to ECB funding).



The pooling of risks between euro-zone countries already exists: the Target 2 accounts are a pooling of bank risks among euro-zone central banks, and purchases of government bonds by the ECB pool sovereign risk.

This trend to federalism and pooling is inevitable: in a monetary union without federalism, countries with external surpluses and countries with external deficits cannot coexist permanently due to the resulting accumulation of external debt.

A number of financing needs are too substantial to be borne by a single country, e.g. for Spain the need for recapitalisation of its banks. And a number of risks (e.g. the risk of a bank run) are also too great not to be pooled.

Is this move towards federalism and pooling a trap for Germany?

The view in Germany is clearly that this move towards federalism and pooling is a trap for Germany. It is claimed that Germany will have to cover most of the costs because it has public finances in good health, growth that is now stronger, higher living standards than the countries in distress, and excess savings.

Germany also has strong credibility in financial markets, as shown by its interest rate level, and it is the only country to be able to credibly insure risks and guarantee loans.

The Germans' concern is therefore understandable: if there is federalism and a pooling of investments and risks, will Germany "receive all the bills"?

To determine whether this is a real risk, let’s examine the situation of the euro zone without Germany: is it such a worrying region, will it have to be propped up permanently by Germany?

The economic and financial situation of the euro zone without Germany: Is it serious?

Without going into greater detail for each country, we shall examine:

·                   its competitiveness, the foreign trade situation; the weight of industry;

·                   its situation regarding its technological level, skills, productivity and investment; its potential growth;

·                   the situation of its businesses and households;

·                   its public finances.

1. Foreign trade, competitiveness, weight of industry

The euro zone without Germany has:

·                   a structural external deficit;

·                   a shortfall in competitiveness;

·                   a small industrial base;

·                   a large external debt.

2. Technological level, skills, investment, productivity and potential growth, capacity for job creation

The technological level of the euro zone without Germany is fairly low, as is the population's level of education; this zone invests little, has low productivity gains, and since 2008 it has destroyed jobs massively.

3. Situation of businesses and households

Corporate profitability in the euro zone excluding Germany is low, but private (corporate and household) debt is lower than in Germany; however, household solvency has deteriorated (in Germany, household defaults are low and stable; in France, Spain and Italy, they are high and rising).

4. Public finance situation

The public finances of the euro zone excluding Germany are in a very poor state compared with Germany. Indeed Germany’s debt to GDP ratio is expected to fall, while in the euro zone excluding Germany it should rise rapidly toward 100%; Germany has a 1% primary surplus, while the euro zone excluding Germany has a 2% primary deficit.

Conclusion: Are the German fears justified?

If the euro zone were to become a federal monetary union, with solidarity between countries and pooling of certain investments (recapitalisation of banks, for example) and risks, surely the rest of the euro zone excluding Germany could only be:

·                   benefiting from transfers from Germany;

·                   benefiting from Germany's credibility in the markets;

·                   benefiting from Germany's guarantee;

Or could it share this burden with Germany? We suspect that the burden on Germany would be very heavy.

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