Saturday 26th July 2014
slib33
FRIDAY ANALYSTS TICKER: July 25th 2014 - According to Adam Cordery, global head of European fixed income, Santander Asset Management, and fund manager for the Santander Euro Corporate Short Term and Euro Corporate bond funds, “Pricing of risk assets doesn’t offer much of a margin for error at the moment. And now Europe is starting to go on holiday, market liquidity may get poorer than normal, and any buys today may well have to be holds until September. It is always interesting to note what yields are required to attract clients to financial products. Twenty years ago, bond funds offering yields of 10%+ could generally attract lots of client interest very quickly. However as rates have come down over the years, so the yields clients demand have fallen. Now 4% seems to be the new 10%, he say. Cordery thinks that unfortunately, investors often want today the yield/risk mix that was available last year, so the products that get launched, sold and bought in size may be more risky than people think. “Products with 4% yield will sell well today, but to get to a 4% yield in Euro you need to invest in a portfolio with an average rating of single-B, and that is far from being risk-free. I get the impression the conventional wisdom today is to think that interest rates must surely go up soon and the main risk to bond portfolios is an increase in bund yields. Because of this many investors are buying short-duration products and floating rate notes, perhaps viewing them as a safe choice, almost like cash. It is possible however that these products may yet prove to have a considerable sensitivity to changes in credit market spreads and/or bond market liquidity, and may prove to be no protection at all.” - Commenting on the RBS share price jump, Dr Pete Hahn of Cass Business School, says “It's hard to tell whether the RBS share price jump today is more about relief or optimism. The former is about fewer fines, fewer losses on loans, and fewer costs in a shrinking business and possibly dividends for shareholders. And there's the rub, owning shares (as opposed to interest bearing debt) should be about optimism and long-term growth in dividends. But from a shrinking business? Few would argue that RBS' retail and corporate bank had efficiencies to be gained and cash flow that might be converted to dividends; yet like most banks, RBS' cost of equity remains stubbornly and appropriately above its ability to provide a return on that equity. For shareholders, current improvements should mean dividends in the medium term but a recognition that RBS may lack any merit for new investment and delivering any long-term dividend growth - not good. While many large retail banks are getting safer, in some aspects, and we often speak of them in terms of moving toward utility type models, banks take risks, are cyclical, face competition, have new business challengers, and are simply are not utilities. Investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves here.” - According to the monthly survey held by the central bank of Turkey, the country’s capacity utilization (CU) rate declined slightly to 74.9% in July from 75.3% in June. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted (SA) CU also declined to 74.3% from 74.7% in June, writes Mehmet Besimoglu at Oyak Yatirim Research. As for manufacturing confidence, the index declined to 109 from 110.7 in May. On SA basis, the index also edged down slightly to 106.4 from 107.2. SA capacity utilisation was broadly stable in 1H14, averaging at 74.7%. This is the same level with the 2013 average. Despite the political turmoil and volatility in financial markets, activity has been relatively resilient. Export recovery & government spending supported production in 1H. Following the elections, public spending relatively decelerated. The turmoil in Iraq also decelerated export recovery from June. Nevertheless, we still expect 3.5% GDP growth in 2014, writes Besimoglu.

FPL Latin America Electronic Trading Conference

FPL Latin America Electronic Trading Conference August 2nd | Tivoli Hotel, São Paulo www.fixprotocol.org/latam2012 http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Secure Your Place at the FPL Latin America Electronic Trading Conference, Created by the Latin American Trading Community

August 2nd | Tivoli Hotel, São Paulo
www.fixprotocol.org/latam2012

Building on the success of previous FPL events in Latin America, this year’s conference is set to bring together more than 350 senior representatives from across the region’s buy and sell-side, regulator, trading venue and vendor communities. Join FPL in Sao Paulo and benefit from an event that will offer:

• Separate business, strategic and technical streams, exploring the critical issues, challenges and opportunities impacting firms trading in the region in 2012 and beyond
• An agenda created by senior representatives from the Latin American trading community to address the real needs of the Latin American trading community
• The opportunity to hear the thoughts and impartial perspectives of more than 30 leading experts on the issues that matter to your firm
• Invaluable learning opportunities for representatives from across the region’s trading community
• The opportunity to meet with key decision makers through the many networking opportunities available throughout the day and at the evening cocktail reception

Topics for discussion will include:
• The future of electronic trading internationally and the opportunities and challenges that emerging trends will present to firms in Latin America
• As Dodd Frank reforms and the Volcker rule take shape in the US, what is the likely impact for OTC derivatives trading in Latin America?
• The Brazilian post-trade environment and the potential benefits that increased use of FIX for post-trade processing could present
• Trading across multiple venues in Latin America
• How firms could more effectively measure and control the true costs of trading
• Accessing Liquidity and gaining increased transparency: How can firms understand if they really did achieve best execution?
• Trade information: What data is available to firms trading in Latin America and how are firms using it?
• Trading locally verses internationally: Risk management and regulatory issues to consider
• Meeting the challenges of latency measurement
• How the latest developments from FPL could help support your firm’s emerging business needs
For further agenda details please visit: www.fixprotocol.org/latam2012/program

Register Today
All FPL member firms receive a FREE allocation of passes to attend this event and FREE attendance is available for all representatives from the buy-side and regulatory communities.

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