Monday 22nd December 2014
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH 2014: Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index dropped -4.8% m/m in November (-6.1% yr/yr) and will end 2014 in a ‘deflationary’ mode, says economist Patricia Mohr. "Significant capacity expansion and the defence of market share by major oil and iron ore producers— against a backdrop of lacklustre world economic growth — account for the softness at the end of the year," she says. Mohr adds that the decision by Saudi Arabia not to reduce output to shore up international oil prices, but instead to allow prices to drop to levels curbing US shale development appears to be having a negative impact on confidence in a wide variety of other commodity as well as equity markets. She predicts prices will fall further this month, but will start to rebound in mid 201 - Jonathan Hill, the EU's financial-services commissioner, says he plans to pursue rules that separate a bank's proprietary trading from retail operations. "The sensible thing to do is to seek to make progress quickly" on the issue, Hill said. "There are still areas of risk in some of the biggest and most complicated banks,” reports Bloomberg- CME Group, said yesterday that it will change daily price limits in its CME Feeder Cattle futures effective today, pursuant to its emergency action authority. The current daily price limit for CME Feeder Cattle futures is $3.00 per hundredweight and will change to $4.50 per hundredweight effective on trade date December 18th Additionally, effective December 19th (tomorrow) these limits will have the ability to expand by 150% to $6.75 per hundredweight on any business day in the event that one of the first two contract months settles at limit on the previous trading day. CME Feeder Cattle futures have been locked limit for five consecutive days as a result of various factors. The change to daily price limits is necessary to ensure continued price discovery and risk transfer, says the CME. Daily price limits for CME Live Cattle futures will remain unchanged at $3.00 per hundredweight. Effective Friday, December 19th, these limits will have the ability to expand by 150 percent to $4.50 per hundredweight in the event that one of the first two contract months settles at limit on the previous trading day - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +16.42 points higher or +0.51% to 3243.65, taking the year-to-date performance to +2.49%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.29% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.71%. The top active stocks were Keppel Corp (+2.68%), SingTel (-1.02%), DBS (+2.36%), Global Logistic (-3.21%) and UOB (+0.30%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index (+3.13%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index are Midas Holdings (+6.38%) and Geo Energy Resources (unchanged). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index, which declined -0.98% with SingTel’s share price declining -1.02% and StarHub’s share price declining-0.73%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (+2.56%), DBXT CSI300 ETF (+0.42%), STI ETF (+0.61%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Ascendas REIT (-0.42%), Keppel DC REIT (unchanged), Suntec REIT (+0.26%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI23400MBeCW150129 (+7.32%), HSI22600MBePW150129 (unchanged), HSI24000MBeCW150129 (+12.50%). The most active stock warrants by value today were KepCorp MBeCW150602 (+21.95%), DBS MB eCW150420 (+29.29%), DBS MB ePW150402 (-18.03%) - Spain’s Director of Public Prosecutions, Eduardo Torres Dulce, has resigned from the post for “personal reasons”, Spanish daily El Mundo reported this morning. A spokesman for the Public Prosecutor’s office confirmed the news by telephone to The Spain Report, saying that Mr. Torres Dulce had informed Justice Minister Rafael Catalá of his decision: “but that it perhaps would not come into effect until they find a replacement”. That decision is taken at cabinet level. The next cabinet meeting for Rajoy’s government is tomorrow morning - Hedge funds including Marshall Wace, Odey Asset Management and Lansdowne Partners are shorting OTP Bank Plc, a Hungarian lender with a Russian subsidiary whose shares have fallen almost 6% this month reports Albourne Village. All three London-based funds took or increased their position this month in OTP, Hungary’s largest lender, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ruble rose today in Moscow after plunging as much as 19%against the dollar yesterday, when Russia’s central bank increased interest rates to 17% percent from 10.5 percent in an attempt to stem the decline. The ruble is down 52% this year and has taken a disproportionate beating in the wake of sanctions and falling oil prices. The country still has the third largest currency reserves in the world and so is unlikely to default. According to Eric Chaney, Manolis Davradakis and Greg Venizelos from AXA IM’s Research and Investment Strategy team Russia will likely resort to fiscal stimulus to contain the risk of social and political unrest. Capital controls, political unrest and even default on private hard currency debts are possible outcomes they say. They credit default swaps market is pricing a one-third probability of sovereign default within five years - Indonesia is ramping up financing for its $439bn development program, planning an almost fivefold increase in sales of project sukuk. The government is seeking to raise IDR7.14trn rupiah (around $568m) from notes that will fund particular construction ventures next year, compared with IDR1.5trn this year, which say local press reports, will help finance its estimated spending of about IDR5,519trn from 2015 to 2019 to build roads, railways and power plants.

Fortunes divide in infrastructure spending in the GCC

Monday, 03 October 2011
Fortunes divide in infrastructure spending in the GCC The growing disparity of fortunes in the GCC project segment was starkly exposed by a Citigroup report, which highlighted the fact that while some $170bn of projects in the United Arab Emirates have been put on hold or cancelled outright, the MENA region has seen a substantial uptick in infrastructure project spend. Who are the winners and runners up in the GCC project stakes right now? http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The growing disparity of fortunes in the GCC project segment was starkly exposed by a Citigroup report, which highlighted the fact that while some $170bn of projects in the United Arab Emirates have been put on hold or cancelled outright, the MENA region has seen a substantial uptick in infrastructure project spend. Who are the winners and runners up in the GCC project stakes right now?

Citigroup’s latest MENA construction tracker report holds that the value of projects either delayed or cancelled rose to $170bn in August alone; a signal indication that the construction segment, particularly related to real estate in the Emirates, is still suffering from the fallout of local construction firms overstretching their credit exposure in the early years of this century. The figure is significant; the value of projects cancelled or delayed accounts for 56% of the all stymied projects across the survey area and is up 13% on July’s figures.  The property boom in the Emirates has now been languishing for over 3 years, with some prices of private property estimated to have fallen by as much as 60% in Dubai. No wonder many developers have been forced to abandon projects.

Projects cancelled or on hold across the wider MENA region in contrast, fell slightly to $1.69bn, compared with $1.7bn in July.  However, key markets in the GCC continue on the fast track in terms of new project spend. Saudi Arabia added $81bn worth of projects to the already $100bn it intends to spend on infrastructure in general and $20bn it will spend on downstream petrochemical projects over the coming five years.  Saudi Arabia, the UAE, also Jordan and Egypt are reportedly now pushing forward the idea of building nuclear power capacity across the MENA region; with the estimated value of projects topping $400bn over the next 15 years.  Saudi Arabia will again dominate this segment, with a planned $350bn spend on the King Abdullah City of Atomic and Renewable Energy project, which aims to establish a zeroCo2 emissions city using a mix of nuclear and other renewal energy sources.  Around 16 separate nuclear units are planned.



Kuwait ($20bn) and Qatar ($2bn) also have projects that are in preliminary stages of construction. In contrast, the UAE also showed a $12bn decline in preliminary projects to $118bn.

It is a contrasting picture with the situation even two years ago. While the outlook for countries such as Saudi Arabia look strong in the near term, revised data issued by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority shows that the build up to the current construction pipeline was rather slow in 2009 and the first half of 2010. There was an uptick in growth in 2010, with the industry posting 3.7% year-on-year real construction industry growth, while an average growth in construction projects of some 4% a year over the next four years is expected, backed by a healthy project pipeline, strong government support, an ability to invest and local demand for infrastructure keeps the industry stable.

The country’s Ninth Development Plan announced a touch over a year ago sets out an investment spend on infrastructure of some SAR1, 444bn ($385bn) between 2010 and 2014. Then, in response to stirrings elsewhere in MENA, now called the Arab Spring, the government created two packages of social benefits worth $130bn to finance further investment in education, healthcare and housing projects. SAR250bn ($66bn) was pledged for housing alone, with 500,000 new units in the pipeline. Around 7% of development plan investment will be channelled into housing, encompassing some 1m new houses to be built on a public-private partnership basis.  Another 19% will be invested in healthcare, involving the build of some 117 hospitals and 750 so-called primary care units.  The government also has an $80bn 10-year investment plan for electricity infrastructure underway in parallel with the infrastructure investment plans, which run out to 2018. Some 20GW of electricity capacity is currently under construction, worth around $30bn.

In a boost to local construction firms, the Saudi Industrial Development Fund has announced it will finance up to 75% of costs for investment projects in under-developed regions.

The current crop of investments underway includes the SAR40bn expansion of the Grand Mosque, underscoring the Kingdom’s pivotal role in Islam. The expansion, in the northern part of the Grand Mosque will cover an estimated 356,000 square metres, ultimately accommodating up to 1.2m worshippers.  It includes the construction of four giant bridges allowing access to the northern courtyards inside the Grand Mosque. It is the largest expansion project within the Grand Mosque complex to date and will showcase the country’s move into the 21st century, while retaining its sacred role as protector of the Islamic faith.

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