Monday 26th January 2015
FRIDAY, JANUARY 23RD 2015: European markets regulator ESMA has added Athens Exchange Clearing House to its list of authorised CCPs under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). EMIR requires EU-based CCPs to be authorised and non-EU CCPs to be recognised in the European Union (EU). The updated list of authorised CCPs is available on ESMA's website - Driven by strengthening private domestic demand, economic growth in the US is expected to accelerate modestly this year and drag last year’s unspectacular housing activity upward, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Amid continued low gasoline prices, a firming labour market conditions, rising household net worth, improving consumer and business confidence, and reduced fiscal headwinds, the economy is expected to climb to 3.1% in 2015, up from the Group’s estimate of 2.7% in the prior forecast. The stronger economic backdrop should lead to improving income prospects, underpinning a higher rate of household formation in 2015. "Our theme for the year, Economy Drags Housing Upward, implies that both housing and the economy will pick up some speed in 2015, but that the economy will grow at a faster pace," says Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. "We have revised upward our full-year economic growth forecast to 3.1% for 2015, which is not yet robust but still an improvement over last year’s growth. Consumer spending should continue to strengthen due in large part to lower gas prices, giving further support to auto sales and manufacturing. We believe this will motivate the Federal Reserve to begin measures to normalize monetary policy in the third quarter of this year, continuing at a cautiously steady pace into 2016 and 2017, likely keeping interest rates relatively low for some time." - The Russian Central bank said yesterday that its gold reserves grew by a 600,000 ounces (18.7 tonnes) in December – the ninth successive month of gold reserve increases. Russia has now more than tripled its gold reserves in the past ten years. The ruble has fallen in value by almost 50% in the past 12 months which makes the nation’s gold reserves ever more important to its global economic status – According to LuxCSD the Taiwan Depository and Clearing Corporation (TDCC) has announced, effective Sunday (January 25th) the firm’s BIC will change from TDCCTWT1 to TDCCTWTP. Customers should quote the TDCC's new BIC in field 95P::PSET//TDCCTWTP of their settlement instructions – Moody's today upgraded the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of Stabilus S.A. to B1 from B2 and the Probability of Default Rating (PDR) to B1-PD from B2-PD. At the same time the rating agency upgraded the instrument ratings assigned to the Senior Secured Notes issued by Servus Luxembourg Holding S.C.A. to B1 from B2. The outlook on all ratings remains positive – The US Federal Reserve Bank of New York says its daily Fed Funds effective rate is now 0.12% (Low 0.30%, High 0.3125%) with four basis points of standard deviation - Vanguard Group, already the biggest mutual fund company in the world, has risen to second place as a provider of exchange-traded funds, says ETF.com—based on the success of its low-cost index funds, including ETFs. Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, has dropped from second to third. Even so, SSGA still has the largest ETF in the world, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY | A-98) - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +41.21 points higher or +1.22% to 3411.5, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.38%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.97% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.23%. The top active stocks were CapitaLand (+4.09%), DBS (+0.80%), SingTel (+0.76%), UOB (+0.72%) and Noble (-0.47%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index (+2.31%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index are Hongkong Land Holdings (+1.18%) and Global Logistic Properties (+1.57%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Oil & Gas Index, which gained +0.16% with Keppel Corp’s share price unchanged and Sembcorp Industries’s share price declining +0.93%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the SPDR Gold Shares (+0.77%), IS MSCI India (+1.89%), DBXT MSCI Asia Ex Japan ETF (+1.57%) –

EU’s threatened financial transaction tax could magnify FX costs

Friday, 03 February 2012
EU’s threatened financial transaction tax could magnify FX costs An EU financial transaction tax (FTT), could increase FX transaction costs, says Oliver Wyman research. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

An EU financial transaction tax (FTT), could increase FX transaction costs, says Oliver Wyman research.

Research by oliver Wyman, commissioned by the Global Financial Markets Association’s (GFMA’s) global FX division, suggests that, given the tight margins that exist in foreign exchange markets, any increase in transaction costs will, in turn, hit the real economy as these costs would largely be passed on to all end users. The report, Proposed EU Commission Financial Transaction Tax; Impact Analysis of Foreign Exchange Markets’, evaluates the impact of the European Union’s proposed financial transaction Tax (FTT) on European FX markets, estimating its impact on FX cash and derivatives users in particular.
The report not only recognises that the primary impact of the tax will be an increase in transaction costs, relocation of trading and reduction in notional turnover, but also it suggests the tax will result in a potential reduction in liquidity leading to a widening of bid/ask spreads.
The research suggests that a proposed FTT could directly increase transaction costs for all transactions by three to seven times and by up to 18 times for the most traded part of the market. It could eventually result in the relocation between 70% and 75% of tax eligible transactions outside of the EU tax jurisdiction. This possible outcome, combined with reduced transaction volumes (of approx 5%), could reduce market liquidity and increase indirect transaction costs by up to a further 110%, the report suggests.
Inevitably however, the tax will predominantly hit the real economy and the institutional market, comprising pension funds, asset managers, insurers and corporations, as both direct and indirect costs are largely passed on to end‐users, which will be least able to move transactions to jurisdictions not subject to the tax.
While the tax is expected to only have a limited impact on speculative trading, as this activity will most likely relocate outside the EU tax jurisdiction, it will result in an inefficient tax on the economy as raising €1 of tax would likely cost the economy more than €1, due to the indirect costs associated with reduced and more fragmented liquidity.
James Kemp, managing director of GFMA’s global FX division, says:  “It is essential to fully understand the impact of the proposed financial transaction tax and the Oliver Wyman study is an important contribution to the debate. “The foreign exchange industry is an essential part of a stable and sustainable economy, underpinning international trade and investing. This study shows that the proposed tax would in effect penalise Europe’s businesses for sensible risk management—by using FX products to manage currency fluctuations—and also threaten to impose further costs on the investment returns of pension funds and asset managers.”
UK premier David Cameron led a charge against the tax at the Davos World Economic Forum in late January, telling Eurozone members that it was no time for tinkering in the financial markets and that the tax was “madness”.

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