Tuesday 22nd July 2014
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TUESDAY TICKER: JULY 22nd 2014 - The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) has been transformed into a company from a mutual society, opening the way for a public listing on the bourse it operates. The ZSE has been owned and run by stock brokers since 1946, but after demutualisation the brokers now hold 68% while the government owns the remaining shares. The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) alerts the financial services community and members of the public to misuse of the DFSA's name. It has come to the DFSA's attention that a fraudulent email purporting to be from the DFSA has been sent to a number of firms both inside and outside the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The false email: purports to be about a "DFSA Anti-Money Laundering Violation"; appears to come from "Amina Alshehi" from "Audit & Compliance"; attaches a "non-compliance notice"; and uses legitimate DFSA contact details. The email is fake, warns the DFSA. - Surecomp, the provider of trade finance solutions for banks and corporations, says Nordea has gone live in Frankfurt and London with the stand-alone version of allNETT, Surecomp's Web-based trade finance front-end solution – Saudi’s Kingdom Holding Company announced a net income for the second quarter this year of SAR211.7m up 16.8% on the previous quarter. The gross operating profit was SAR420.3m up 26.2% on the same quarter in 2013. Mohammed Fahmy CFO, says: “The second payment of dividends has been deposited in shareholders’ accounts. The outlook for the company’s profitability remains strong.” - Northern Trust has reported a 20 percent rise in assets under custody and a 15% rise in assets under management for Q2 2014 compared to Q2 2013.The Corporate and Institutional Services (C&IS) and wealth management businesses also report a 9% rise in custody and fund administration services, investment management and securities lending. Frederick Waddell, the bank’s chief executive officer, says, “Our business continued to expand in the second quarter as trust, investment and other servicing fees, which represent 65% of revenue, increased 8% compared to last year and assets under custody and under management increased 20% and 15%, respectively.” - In the latest Investment Quarterly for Q3 2014, Renee Chen, Macro and Investment Strategist at HSBC Global Asset Management, looks at the investment prospects throughout the Asia region. Chen identifies macro trends that are likely to shape investment themes in Asian markets, such as economic policy reforms, economic rebalancing and regional cooperation and integration that will provide a wide diversity of investment opportunities in relevant sectors. Financial deepening, in terms of financial system reform and deregulation and capital market developments, is another macro theme. HSBC continues to see opportunities in various sectors that could potentially benefit from structural reforms in several Asian countries. In particular, effective implementation of reforms could lead to a sustainable improvement in economic fundamentals and the growth prospects of China and India, prompting a reform-led re-rating of Chinese and Indian stocks. The continued search for yield resulted in decent H1 performance in Asian credit markets and there has been continued investor appetite for emerging Asian bonds, but Chen cautions that valuations could become a constraint, with limited room for further spread compression in some sectors and markets. However, the still-low default rates and overall healthy level of leverage among Asian companies on the back of overall sound Asian economic fundamentals provide a solid base for Asian credit market in the medium-to-long term.

Bunking the myth of oil price hikes and speculation

Monday, 05 March 2012
Bunking the myth of oil price hikes and speculation The question of whether speculators are responsible for the recent spikes in the price of oil has been one of the most hotly debated topics in the oil market in the last few years. Most recently it has prompted US regulators to put limits on some speculative positions and re-define what they consider to be speculative positions. Vanja Dragomanovich met up with Rita D'Eclessia, professor at the Department of Economic Theory and Quantitative Methods for Political Choices at the University of Rome and a visiting lecturer at Birkbeck University in London, who has run these theories through a set of mathematical tests and has produced some slightly surprising results. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The question of whether speculators are responsible for the recent spikes in the price of oil has been one of the most hotly debated topics in the oil market in the last few years. Most recently it has prompted US regulators to put limits on some speculative positions and re-define what they consider to be speculative positions. Vanja Dragomanovich met up with Rita D'Eclessia, professor at the Department of Economic Theory and Quantitative Methods for Political Choices at the University of Rome and a visiting lecturer at Birkbeck University in London, who has run these theories through a set of mathematical tests and has produced some slightly surprising results.

Vanja Dragomanovich (VD): Why has the issue of oil prices attracted so much attention outside the actual oil market?
Rita D'Eclessia (RD’A): Analysis and empirical evidence shows that four out of the last five global recessions were preceded by oil shocks. In the case of the 2007-2008 crisis oil prices cannot be ignored as a culprit of what happened: the oil price increased over 300% and this caused the annual fuel bill of OECD countries to increase dramatically. Exceptional oil price volatility affects many economic variables and their related markets. Oil price fluctuations affect consumers, producers and marketers, especially in terms of costs, incentives to invest in technology and trading strategies. The importance of oil prices is further increased by the fact that other forms of energy such as coal, gas, and, to a lesser extent, electricity are sometimes priced in order to compete with oil, so that oil price fluctuations become reflected in broader energy price changes.

VD: As part of your research you looked into the link between the volatility in oil prices and the involvement of speculators in the market. Can you talk us through your findings?
RD’A: Economists and financial experts are divided over who they think was responsible for driving crude oil prices to their peaks in the first half of 2008. Basically trend-following speculation and institutional commodity index-buying have reinforced the output pressure on prices. In my research I tried to identify which economic and financial variables provide insights into understanding oil price dynamics. Our proposition was that the changes in the oil price are an example of an economic variable which is largely unpredictable. In such a context the role of futures markets, considered as a measure of the speculative component in the market, is also investigated. However, our conclusion was that using the data we had, we could not find any evidence that the oil price depends on speculative activity in the market.

VD: What data did you base your research on? For instance, how did you define speculators and how did you distinguish between speculative and non-speculative activity? Was your research based on information from several commodity exchanges?
RD’A: I set up an econometric model to capture possible long run equilibrium between some macroeconomic variables and some financial variables. The data used to measure speculation is the number of the benchmark US futures oil contracts, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot crude oil held by speculators; this is data published by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
I used monthly West Texas Intermediate spot oil prices between 1993 and 2011 and assumed that speculators are participants who trade oil as an investment and not to hedge.

VD: Once you established that the link between speculative activity and oil price volatility was weak which other factors proved most influential in the oil market?
RD’A: Surprisingly, by far the strongest influence is the price of gold, followed by the strength of the euro against the dollar. For instance we found that for any one basis point move in the euro/dollar exchange rate the oil price moved by $2.8 dollars. Given that the euro was only introduced in 2000 we ran the analysis using the Deutschmark from 1993 till the introduction of the euro.
In all, we tried six different variables to try and find some meaningful correlation. We tried open interest, US interest rates, imports of WTI and WTI oil futures, all of which proved not to have a strong impact on the oil market.

VD: Your analysis was primarily statistical. However, in that period of time oil would have also moved for other reasons such as geopolitical crises, conflicts in the Middle East, economic crises, and political changes in Europe. How do those factors feature in your analysis?
RD’A: That is correct, but we can infer the influence of political events through the fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate and the price of gold. In any case the debate continues; oil price changes certainly cannot be explained solely by looking at the supply and demand dynamics.

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