Tuesday 28th July 2015
NEWS TICKER, Tuesday July 28th: The Spanish Mercado Alternativo Bursátil (MAB) has admitted INCLAM to list on the market’s growth company segment. The company will trade from July 29th this year. Its trading code will be INC and trading will be through a price setting mechanism which will match buy and sell orders by means of two daily auction periods or “fixings”, at 12 hrs and at 16 hrs. Stratelis Advisors is acting as registered adviser and MG Valores SV as liquidity provider. - Moody's: Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji) Q.S.C.'s asset quality and capital strengths moderated by high reliance on market funding. Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji) Q.S.C. (AKB) benefits from a solid overall financial profile which is moderated by high reliance on market funding and concentration risks, says Moody's Investors Service in the report "Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji) Q.S.C: asset quality and capital strengths are moderated by high reliance on market funding" - While German SME’s continue to be plagued by recruiting problems, according to a new KfW survey fewer are bothered about filling employment vacancies than they were back in 2010. More women and older people in the working population, increasing labour mobility and the rise in skilled labour from other EU countries is helping filling the employment gap. Even so, the survey suggests that over the longer term, skilled labour shortages could be the order of the day – In a filing with the Luxembourg Stock Exchange Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten has given notice of amended final terms to the holders of TRY77.5m notes at 10.01% due June 17th 2025 (ISIN Code: XS1247665836 and Series no. 1214) issued under the bank’s €80bn debt issuance programme. The amendment includes provision that the issuer may settlement any payment due in respect of the notes in a currency other than that specified on the due date subject to pre-agreed conditions. Deutsche Bank London is the issuing and paying agent, while Deutsche Bank Luxembourg is listing agent, paying agent and transfer agent. The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 8.5% at 3725.56, its second-straight day of losses and worst daily percentage fall since February 27th, 2007. China's main index is up 6% from its recent low on July 8, but still off 28% from its high in June. The smaller Shenzhen Composite fell 7% to 2160.09 and the small-cap ChiNext Closed 7.4%. Lower at 2683.45. The drop comes as investors wonder how long the government’s buying of blue chip stocks can last. Clearly, the government can’t be seen to be pouring good money after bad to prop up what looks to be a failed strategy of propping up the market. Disappointing corporate earnings data across the globe has affected Asia’s main indices in today’s trading. The Hang Seng Index fell 2.7%. Australia's S&PASX 200 was down 0.2%, the Nikkei Stock Average fell 1% and South Korea's Kospi was off 0.4%. Turnover also remains depressed on Chinese exchanges, with around RMB1.2trn the average volume traded, compared to more than RMB2trn before this current downturn – In other news from the Asia Pacific, New Zealand’s Financial Markets Authority (FMA) has issued a Stop Order against Green Gardens Finance Trust Limited (GGFT) and warns the public to be wary of doing business or depositing money with this company. The Stop Order prohibits GGFT from offering, issuing, accepting applications for or advertising debt securities and/or accepting further contributions, investments or deposits for debt securities – Meantime, in Australia, the Federal Court has found that Astra Resources PLC (Astra Resources) and its subsidiary, Astra Consolidated Nominees Pty Ltd (Astra Nominees), breached the fundraising provisions of the Corporations Act, as part of civil proceedings brought by ASIC. In his judgment, Justice White upheld ASIC's claims that Astra Resources and Astra Nominees breached the Corporations Act by raising funds from investors without a prospectus or similar disclosure document, as required under the law.

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Bunking the myth of oil price hikes and speculation

Monday, 05 March 2012
Bunking the myth of oil price hikes and speculation The question of whether speculators are responsible for the recent spikes in the price of oil has been one of the most hotly debated topics in the oil market in the last few years. Most recently it has prompted US regulators to put limits on some speculative positions and re-define what they consider to be speculative positions. Vanja Dragomanovich met up with Rita D'Eclessia, professor at the Department of Economic Theory and Quantitative Methods for Political Choices at the University of Rome and a visiting lecturer at Birkbeck University in London, who has run these theories through a set of mathematical tests and has produced some slightly surprising results. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The question of whether speculators are responsible for the recent spikes in the price of oil has been one of the most hotly debated topics in the oil market in the last few years. Most recently it has prompted US regulators to put limits on some speculative positions and re-define what they consider to be speculative positions. Vanja Dragomanovich met up with Rita D'Eclessia, professor at the Department of Economic Theory and Quantitative Methods for Political Choices at the University of Rome and a visiting lecturer at Birkbeck University in London, who has run these theories through a set of mathematical tests and has produced some slightly surprising results.

Vanja Dragomanovich (VD): Why has the issue of oil prices attracted so much attention outside the actual oil market?
Rita D'Eclessia (RD’A): Analysis and empirical evidence shows that four out of the last five global recessions were preceded by oil shocks. In the case of the 2007-2008 crisis oil prices cannot be ignored as a culprit of what happened: the oil price increased over 300% and this caused the annual fuel bill of OECD countries to increase dramatically. Exceptional oil price volatility affects many economic variables and their related markets. Oil price fluctuations affect consumers, producers and marketers, especially in terms of costs, incentives to invest in technology and trading strategies. The importance of oil prices is further increased by the fact that other forms of energy such as coal, gas, and, to a lesser extent, electricity are sometimes priced in order to compete with oil, so that oil price fluctuations become reflected in broader energy price changes.

VD: As part of your research you looked into the link between the volatility in oil prices and the involvement of speculators in the market. Can you talk us through your findings?
RD’A: Economists and financial experts are divided over who they think was responsible for driving crude oil prices to their peaks in the first half of 2008. Basically trend-following speculation and institutional commodity index-buying have reinforced the output pressure on prices. In my research I tried to identify which economic and financial variables provide insights into understanding oil price dynamics. Our proposition was that the changes in the oil price are an example of an economic variable which is largely unpredictable. In such a context the role of futures markets, considered as a measure of the speculative component in the market, is also investigated. However, our conclusion was that using the data we had, we could not find any evidence that the oil price depends on speculative activity in the market.



VD: What data did you base your research on? For instance, how did you define speculators and how did you distinguish between speculative and non-speculative activity? Was your research based on information from several commodity exchanges?
RD’A: I set up an econometric model to capture possible long run equilibrium between some macroeconomic variables and some financial variables. The data used to measure speculation is the number of the benchmark US futures oil contracts, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot crude oil held by speculators; this is data published by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
I used monthly West Texas Intermediate spot oil prices between 1993 and 2011 and assumed that speculators are participants who trade oil as an investment and not to hedge.

VD: Once you established that the link between speculative activity and oil price volatility was weak which other factors proved most influential in the oil market?
RD’A: Surprisingly, by far the strongest influence is the price of gold, followed by the strength of the euro against the dollar. For instance we found that for any one basis point move in the euro/dollar exchange rate the oil price moved by $2.8 dollars. Given that the euro was only introduced in 2000 we ran the analysis using the Deutschmark from 1993 till the introduction of the euro.
In all, we tried six different variables to try and find some meaningful correlation. We tried open interest, US interest rates, imports of WTI and WTI oil futures, all of which proved not to have a strong impact on the oil market.

VD: Your analysis was primarily statistical. However, in that period of time oil would have also moved for other reasons such as geopolitical crises, conflicts in the Middle East, economic crises, and political changes in Europe. How do those factors feature in your analysis?
RD’A: That is correct, but we can infer the influence of political events through the fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate and the price of gold. In any case the debate continues; oil price changes certainly cannot be explained solely by looking at the supply and demand dynamics.

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