Thursday 24th July 2014
slib33
WEDNESDAY TICKER: JULY 23RD 2014 - According to a local press reports, the Mobileye initial public offering on Wall Street will be valued at approximately $3.8bn. The original prospectus was for a valuation between $3.5-5bn, making the actual valuation at the lower end of estimates. The Israeli company will offer 8.325m shares at a price of $17-19 per share. The offering will most likely take place in two weeks, when the stock will be traded under the ticker MBLY on the New York Stock Exchange. Mobileye was founded in 1999 and has developed a camera-based system to mount on vehicles in order to aid in collision prevention - Rubicon Minerals Corporation has closed its previously announced bought deal financing of 7,060,000 flow-through common shares of the Company at a price of C$1.70 per Flow-Through Share for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of C$12m. The Offering was conducted by a syndicate of underwriters co-led by TD Securities Inc. and BMO Capital Markets, and included National Bank Financial Inc. and Canaccord Genuity Corp. The gross proceeds from the offering will be used to incur eligible Canadian Exploration Expenses - BNP Paribas 2nd Quarter 2014 Results will be available on Thursday 31 July 2014 from 6.00 am (London time). A live webcast in English with synchronised slides of the analysts conference call hosted by Lars Machenil, chief financial officer, will be available on the bank’s website starting at 1.00 pm (London time) - After six years of severe recession that led to a cumulative loss of 1.1m jobs, the Greek labour market has started to show signs of recovery says National Bank of Greece. More than two thirds of employment losses in the private sector (730,000 jobs) are due to the closure of about 220,000 micro and small firms (30% of the existing micro and small enterprise population) together with layoffs in this segment. NBG Research’s composite indicator of employment trends, that combines information from forward-looking and coincident indicators, points to an employment growth of +0.6% y-o-y in Q3:2014 (or +20,000 jobs) and +0.9% y-o-y (or +32,000 jobs) in Q4:2014 compared to the same period of 2013 - Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a provider of high-performance professional trading software, says Robbie McDonnell has been transferred to EVP Global Sales from VP/Managing Director of Asia/Pacific. McDonnell will relocate from Sydney to TT’s headquarters in Chicago, where he will report directly to CEO Rick Lane and be responsible for leading TT’s worldwide sales operation - Eze Software Group, a provider of global investment technology, has expanded its Regulatory Filings Manager service to support Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) Annex IV filings. Clients can now leverage the robust functionality of this enterprise reporting solution to generate necessary reports in accordance with the compliance deadlines of AIFMD. Proposed by European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) last year, AIFMD requires that alternative investment funds meet specific risk management standards for better monitoring, measuring, and reporting. Funds need to provide supervisory authorities with detailed investment data on a quarterly or bi-annual basis for increased transparency into funds’ activity. “Our AIFMD solution is a natural extension of all that we have learned in helping our clients file Form PF and CPO-PQR,” explains Michael Hutner, senior managing director and co-head of global sales for Eze Software Group - Cordea Savills, the international property investment management company, has purchased three canal side office buildings in Camden, North London for a total of £14.07m on behalf a corporate pension fund client. The complex is on the former site of the Camden Brewery and comprises three buildings. Elephant House and The Cooper’s Building are Grade II-listed and let to Viacom for over 8 years. The Lock Building is let to a Charity, which offers the potential for redevelopment in the short term as there are mutual break options in 2015. Cordea Savills’ were represented by Fineman Ross and CBRE acted for the vendor, Derwent London -

Bunking the myth of oil price hikes and speculation

Monday, 05 March 2012
Bunking the myth of oil price hikes and speculation The question of whether speculators are responsible for the recent spikes in the price of oil has been one of the most hotly debated topics in the oil market in the last few years. Most recently it has prompted US regulators to put limits on some speculative positions and re-define what they consider to be speculative positions. Vanja Dragomanovich met up with Rita D'Eclessia, professor at the Department of Economic Theory and Quantitative Methods for Political Choices at the University of Rome and a visiting lecturer at Birkbeck University in London, who has run these theories through a set of mathematical tests and has produced some slightly surprising results. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The question of whether speculators are responsible for the recent spikes in the price of oil has been one of the most hotly debated topics in the oil market in the last few years. Most recently it has prompted US regulators to put limits on some speculative positions and re-define what they consider to be speculative positions. Vanja Dragomanovich met up with Rita D'Eclessia, professor at the Department of Economic Theory and Quantitative Methods for Political Choices at the University of Rome and a visiting lecturer at Birkbeck University in London, who has run these theories through a set of mathematical tests and has produced some slightly surprising results.

Vanja Dragomanovich (VD): Why has the issue of oil prices attracted so much attention outside the actual oil market?
Rita D'Eclessia (RD’A): Analysis and empirical evidence shows that four out of the last five global recessions were preceded by oil shocks. In the case of the 2007-2008 crisis oil prices cannot be ignored as a culprit of what happened: the oil price increased over 300% and this caused the annual fuel bill of OECD countries to increase dramatically. Exceptional oil price volatility affects many economic variables and their related markets. Oil price fluctuations affect consumers, producers and marketers, especially in terms of costs, incentives to invest in technology and trading strategies. The importance of oil prices is further increased by the fact that other forms of energy such as coal, gas, and, to a lesser extent, electricity are sometimes priced in order to compete with oil, so that oil price fluctuations become reflected in broader energy price changes.

VD: As part of your research you looked into the link between the volatility in oil prices and the involvement of speculators in the market. Can you talk us through your findings?
RD’A: Economists and financial experts are divided over who they think was responsible for driving crude oil prices to their peaks in the first half of 2008. Basically trend-following speculation and institutional commodity index-buying have reinforced the output pressure on prices. In my research I tried to identify which economic and financial variables provide insights into understanding oil price dynamics. Our proposition was that the changes in the oil price are an example of an economic variable which is largely unpredictable. In such a context the role of futures markets, considered as a measure of the speculative component in the market, is also investigated. However, our conclusion was that using the data we had, we could not find any evidence that the oil price depends on speculative activity in the market.

VD: What data did you base your research on? For instance, how did you define speculators and how did you distinguish between speculative and non-speculative activity? Was your research based on information from several commodity exchanges?
RD’A: I set up an econometric model to capture possible long run equilibrium between some macroeconomic variables and some financial variables. The data used to measure speculation is the number of the benchmark US futures oil contracts, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot crude oil held by speculators; this is data published by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
I used monthly West Texas Intermediate spot oil prices between 1993 and 2011 and assumed that speculators are participants who trade oil as an investment and not to hedge.

VD: Once you established that the link between speculative activity and oil price volatility was weak which other factors proved most influential in the oil market?
RD’A: Surprisingly, by far the strongest influence is the price of gold, followed by the strength of the euro against the dollar. For instance we found that for any one basis point move in the euro/dollar exchange rate the oil price moved by $2.8 dollars. Given that the euro was only introduced in 2000 we ran the analysis using the Deutschmark from 1993 till the introduction of the euro.
In all, we tried six different variables to try and find some meaningful correlation. We tried open interest, US interest rates, imports of WTI and WTI oil futures, all of which proved not to have a strong impact on the oil market.

VD: Your analysis was primarily statistical. However, in that period of time oil would have also moved for other reasons such as geopolitical crises, conflicts in the Middle East, economic crises, and political changes in Europe. How do those factors feature in your analysis?
RD’A: That is correct, but we can infer the influence of political events through the fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate and the price of gold. In any case the debate continues; oil price changes certainly cannot be explained solely by looking at the supply and demand dynamics.

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