Tuesday 23rd December 2014
NEWS TICKER: MONDAY, DECEMBER 22ND 2014: NASDAQ welcomed 313* new listings this year, including 189 initial public offerings (IPOs), worth a combined $22bn -- more IPOs than any other US exchange, representing a 50% increase from the 126 IPOs in 2013. The exchange says that 62% of the top 100 best performing IPOs overall this year, including eight of the top ten, listed on its main board – Meanwhile, TMX Group today announced that Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) set a new daily volume record on December 19th with 1,535,887,985 shares traded, which surpassed the previous record of 895,769,152, $20,213,746,759. The previous record of $19,278,924,809 was set on September 18th 2008.which was set on December 19th 2008 - Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook for both Bahrain's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at 'BBB' and 'BBB+', respectively. The issue ratings on Bahrain's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'BBB' and 'BBB+', respectively. The agency has simultaneously affirmed Bahrain's Country Ceiling at 'BBB+' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3' - Finnish IT company Neonella Oy (Ltd) is launching a service platform that enables the use of bitcoins, as part of interactive advertising, for example in TV-programs. The service also makes bitcoin transactions possible from media companies or advertisers to consumers. Neonella is currently seeking funding for the platform through a crowdfunding campaign. The payment interface developed enables ordering of goods or services within video or TV programs. It is also possible to vote, donate and encourage the viewers to tell about their opinions as part of the content. The same technology works in internet marketing and banners as well as in TV- and video content. - Citi is reportedly stepping in to absorb the energy and metals commodity-trading books of Credit Suisse. Citi's acquisitions will be added to the trading books it took on from Deutsche Bank this year - Credit Suisse Group meanwhile is focusing on equity trading. The banking group is said to be working with Intercontinental Exchange to restore more trading on the exchange. ICE is proposing a compromise in which exchanges agree to reduce stock-trading prices and banks agree to a rule requiring more trading on exchanges, reports the Wall Street Journal - Looking beyond post FED rate hike actions should be the key for investors to explore deep values at reasonable earnings momentum thinks Is Yatirim in Istanbul. The firm’s analysis think that the world will have to endure “a long period of low-growth, low-environment double whammy, which may not necessarily bad for Turkey [which] has hunger for foreign savings at least for another five years – Private equity firms Lombard Investments and LeapFrog Investments have bought just under 11% of the shares of Thai insurer Syn Mun Kong (SMK) for $57.5m from the Royal & Sun Alliance Group (4.35m shares at around $13.20 each), according to a regulatory filing - VTB Capital has successfully completed the RUB 2.5 billion securitisation deal for AK BARS BANK mortgage portfolio​ as part of the Vnesheconombank's programme for investing in affordable housing and mortgages in 2010-2013 - According to the US government technology news agency, North Korea has denied the Obama administration's allegations that it launched the hack attack against Sony Pictures Entertainment and has demanded that a joint investigation with the US into the incident be launched. The secretive communist regime, based in Pyongyang, also promised there would be "grave consequences" if the United States failed to agree to the joint probe. - Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlooks on Bahrain's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at 'BBB' and 'BBB+', respectively. The issue ratings on Bahrain's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'BBB' and 'BBB+', respectively. The agency has simultaneously affirmed Bahrain's Country Ceiling at 'BBB+' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3' - Finnish IT company Neonella Oy (Ltd) is launching a service platform that enables the use of bitcoins, as part of interactive advertising, for example in TV-programs. The service also makes bitcoin transactions possible from media companies or advertisers to consumers. Neonella is currently seeking funding for the platform through a crowdfunding campaign. The payment interface developed enables ordering of goods or services within video or TV programs. It is also possible to vote, donate and encourage the viewers to tell about their opinions as part of the content. The same technology works in internet marketing and banners as well as in TV- and video content. - Citi is reportedly stepping in to absorb the energy and metals commodity-trading books of Credit Suisse. Citi's acquisitions will be added to the trading books it took on from Deutsche Bank this year - Credit Suisse Group meanwhile is focusing on equity trading. The banking group is said to be working with Intercontinental Exchange to restore more trading on the exchange. ICE is proposing a compromise in which exchanges agree to reduce stock-trading prices and banks agree to a rule requiring more trading on exchanges, reports the Wall Street Journal - Looking beyond post FED rate hike actions should be the key for investors to explore deep values at reasonable earnings momentum thinks Is Yatirim in Istanbul. The firm’s analysis think that the world will have to endure “a long period of low-growth, low-environment double whammy, which may not necessarily bad for Turkey [which] has hunger for foreign savings at least for another five years – Private equity firms Lombard Investments and LeapFrog Investments have bought just under 11% of the shares of Thai insurer Syn Mun Kong (SMK) for $57.5m from the Royal & Sun Alliance Group (4.35m shares at around $13.20 each), according to a regulatory filing - VTB Capital has successfully completed the RUB 2.5 billion securitisation deal for AK BARS BANK mortgage portfolio​ as part of the Vnesheconombank's programme for investing in affordable housing and mortgages in 2010-2013.

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.



Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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