Wednesday 1st July 2015
NEWS TICKER: WEDNESDAY, JULY 1st 2015: Gerry Rice, director of communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today regarding Greece’s financial obligations to the IMF due today: “I confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5bn) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared. I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course.” - Morningstar has downgraded the Neptune European Opportunities fund to a Morningstar Analyst Rating™ of Bronze. The fund previously held a Silver rating. The fund remains a solid choice as an unconstrained European equity offering, boasting a talented and longstanding manager in Rob Burnett. However, the risk-return profile of the fund has deteriorated over recent years as the manager has made a number of ill-timed shifts in the portfolio which have resulted in significant performance variability and heavily weighed on the fund’s three- and five-year risk-adjusted returns. Whilst Morningstar continues to think very well of Burnett and expects investors to benefit from his moves to limit short-term trading and make better use of the risk management tools at his disposal, Morningstar believes a Bronze rating provides a better reflection of the fund’s relative merits – The shares of Cassiopea were traded for the first time under the Main Standard of SIX Swiss Exchange, opening at CHF35.00. This corresponds to a total market capitalisation of around CHF350m - Further to its public offer of up to 1,000,000 Certificates to be issued by Deutsche Bank AG under its X-markets programme, the bank has issued 45,000 securities at a price of U$100 per certificate today. Application has been made for the Securities to be admitted to listing on the official list of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange and to trading on the Euro-MTF market of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 13.81 points or 0.42% higher to 3331.14, taking the year-to-date performance to -1.01%. The top active stocks today were Singtel, which gained 1.19%, SGX, which gained 4.47%, DBS, which declined 0.92%, OCBC Bank, which declined 0.10% and Global Logistic, with a 1.19% advance. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.09%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.14%. The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Real Estate Holding and Development Index, which rose 1.35%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Hongkong Land Holdings and Global Logistic Properties – ended 2.32% higher and 1.19% lower respectively. The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Technology Index, which slipped 1.63%. Silverlake Axis shares declined 3.57% and STATS ChipPAC gained 0.97%.

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The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.



Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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