Friday 6th March 2015
NEWS TICKER – THURSDAY, MARCH 5TH 2015: Following a recent Morningstar Analyst Ratings meeting, Morningstar has moved the Henderson Horizon Japanese Equity fund and the Henderson Japan Capital Growth fund to a Morningstar Analyst Rating™ of Neutral. Both funds were previously Under Review due to a change in the lead portfolio manager. Prior to being placed Under Review, both funds were rated Bronze. The funds were solely managed by Michael Wood-Martin, who took over in 2005. However, in October 2014 Henderson decided to adopt a team-based approach. They are now run by the Japanese Equities team consisting of four investment professionals, including William Garnett, Michael Wood-Martin, Jeremy Hall, and Yun-Young Lee. Given this change to the investment process, Morningstar says it has less clarity around the likely shape of the portfolios and little evidence that the strategy can be implemented effectively. Morningstar believes a Neutral rating is appropriate at the current time —Moody's Investors Service has today republished a number of asset-backed securities (ABS) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) rating methodology reports. The updated ABS and RMBS methodology reports consolidate the secondary rating methodology "Revising default/loss assumptions over the life of an EMEA ABS/RMBS transaction" and which the agency will now retire; for RMBS specifically sees updates to the surveillance section; and for Consumer Loan-Backed ABS specifically a new appendix describing how Moody's will tailor its approach to rating consumer loans for marketplace lending loans. The republications do not represent a change in methodology and will not result in any rating changes —BATS Chi-X Europe reports a 23.7% market share, with average notional value traded at €12.3bn up substantially from €8.9bn in February 2014. Market share rose in 14 of the 15 markets the firm covers. Its trade reporting facility, BXTR, had its second-most successful month ever with more than €369.3bn reported in total during the month; an average of €18.5bn each trading day. In total, BATS Chi-X systems touched €616.1bn of trades in February—The Straits Times Index (STI) ended -20.26 points lower or -0.59% to 3395.27, taking the year-to-date performance to +0.90%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -0.18% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.17%. The top active stocks were SingTel (-1.20%), DBS (+0.05%), Keppel Land (-0.44%), OCBC Bank (-0.48%) and Global Logistic (unchanged). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Utilities Index (+1.66%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Utilities Index are United Envirotech (unchanged) and Hyflux (+0.58%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index, which declined -1.31% with Wilmar International’s share price declining -0.61% and Thai Beverage’s share price declining -2.06%.The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (-1.22%), SPDR Gold Shares (-0.31%), DBXT MSCI Thailand TRN ETF (-0.38%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were CapitaMall Trust (+0.94%), Ascendas REIT (+2.02%), CapitaCom Trust (+0.28%).The most active index warrants by value today were HSI25000MBeCW150429 (-14.16%), HSI24200MBePW150429 (+10.53%), HSI23800MBePW150330 (+16.92%)—Commerz Real and RFR Holding have signed an agreement to purchase the real estate Atlas Plaza in Miami/Florida for its open-ended real estate fund hausInvest. The retail trade complex, located in the burgeoning Design District and in part on two storeys, comprises two existing buildings and a new construction, scheduled to be completed by May 2015. Upon the completion of the building work the leasable area will total approximately 1,600 square metres. The total investment volume for the acquisition and extension of “Atlas Plaza” amounts to around 68 million US dollars (approximately €60m)—Malaysia’s corporate sukuk sales will rebound from the worst start to a year since 2010 as a recovery in oil prices spurs issuance before the US raises interest rates, according to investment bank CIMB. Islamic bond offerings to date are down MYR9.7bn on a year on year basis. Kuala Lumpur-based AmInvestment Bank Bhd predicts sales could surpass last year’s MYR62bn as more projects come on stream under the government’s 10-year development programme. A 34% rally in Brent crude from January’s six-year low will shore up the country’s finances after Fitch Ratings warned the loss of revenue for oil-exporting Malaysia puts its credit ranking at risk. The average yield on AAA rated Malaysian corporate securities has dropped to a three-month low, cutting costs for issuers involved in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s $444bn spending drive and those seeking to refinance debt—Bahrain’s BIBF has announced the launch of the region’s first Islamic Finance and Muslim Lifestyle Convergence Training programme, developed as part of the Waqf Fund’s initiatives to enhance Islamic Finance training in the region, in partnership with New York-based DinarStandard, at a press conference yesterday. The burgeoning Halal food and Muslim Lifestyle sectors is estimated to be worth $2trn in 2013, and is expected to reach $2.47trn by 2018, based on the State of the Global Islamic Economy 2014 report, produced by Thomson Reuters in collaboration with DinarStandard. This represents a huge opportunity for Islamic Finance, which has been for the most part, untapped—Kames Capital is to lower the annual management charge on the Kames Investment Grade Global Bond Fund following a review of the fund’s positioning in the European markets. The move will see the AMC on the Kames Investment Grade Global Bond Fund B share class fall to 0.65% from its current rate of 0.80%, while for the A share class the charge will drop to 1.15% from 1.30%. The changes will take effect from the 1st April 2015. As part of the review, Kames will also be changing the benchmark of the fund to the Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Index from the Lipper Global Bond Global Corporate Median. The changes are intended to bring the fund into line with its peer group particularly in Continental Europe. Whilet there will be no change to the investment process of the fund, there will be a slight change to the fund’s duration. In order to maintain its index-neutral duration, the Fund will now be aligned to the Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Index which has a duration of around 6.4 years. This compares to the existing Lipper peer group which has an estimated duration of 5 years.

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.



Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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