Wednesday 23rd July 2014
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The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) has been transformed into a company from a mutual society, opening the way for a public listing on the bourse it operates. The ZSE has been owned and run by stock brokers since 1946, but after demutualisation the brokers now hold 68% while the government owns the remaining shares. The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) alerts the financial services community and members of the public to misuse of the DFSA's name. It has come to the DFSA's attention that a fraudulent email purporting to be from the DFSA has been sent to a number of firms both inside and outside the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The false email: purports to be about a "DFSA Anti-Money Laundering Violation"; appears to come from "Amina Alshehi" from "Audit & Compliance"; attaches a "non-compliance notice"; and uses legitimate DFSA contact details. The email is fake, warns the DFSA. - Surecomp, the provider of trade finance solutions for banks and corporations, says Nordea has gone live in Frankfurt and London with the stand-alone version of allNETT, Surecomp's Web-based trade finance front-end solution – Saudi’s Kingdom Holding Company announced a net income for the second quarter this year of SAR211.7m up 16.8% on the previous quarter. The gross operating profit was SAR420.3m up 26.2% on the same quarter in 2013. Mohammed Fahmy CFO, says: “The second payment of dividends has been deposited in shareholders’ accounts. The outlook for the company’s profitability remains strong.” - Northern Trust has reported a 20 percent rise in assets under custody and a 15% rise in assets under management for Q2 2014 compared to Q2 2013.The Corporate and Institutional Services (C&IS) and wealth management businesses also report a 9% rise in custody and fund administration services, investment management and securities lending. Frederick Waddell, the bank’s chief executive officer, says, “Our business continued to expand in the second quarter as trust, investment and other servicing fees, which represent 65% of revenue, increased 8% compared to last year and assets under custody and under management increased 20% and 15%, respectively.” - In the latest Investment Quarterly for Q3 2014, Renee Chen, Macro and Investment Strategist at HSBC Global Asset Management, looks at the investment prospects throughout the Asia region. Chen identifies macro trends that are likely to shape investment themes in Asian markets, such as economic policy reforms, economic rebalancing and regional cooperation and integration that will provide a wide diversity of investment opportunities in relevant sectors. Financial deepening, in terms of financial system reform and deregulation and capital market developments, is another macro theme. HSBC continues to see opportunities in various sectors that could potentially benefit from structural reforms in several Asian countries. In particular, effective implementation of reforms could lead to a sustainable improvement in economic fundamentals and the growth prospects of China and India, prompting a reform-led re-rating of Chinese and Indian stocks. The continued search for yield resulted in decent H1 performance in Asian credit markets and there has been continued investor appetite for emerging Asian bonds, but Chen cautions that valuations could become a constraint, with limited room for further spread compression in some sectors and markets. However, the still-low default rates and overall healthy level of leverage among Asian companies on the back of overall sound Asian economic fundamentals provide a solid base for Asian credit market in the medium-to-long term.

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.

Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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