Sunday 23rd November 2014
NEWS TICKER – FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST 2014: The director of the National Security Agency, Navy Admiral Michael Rogers, says he expects to see adversaries launch a cyber-attack in the next few years aimed at severely damaging America's critical infrastructure. "I fully expect that during my time as commander, we're going to be tasked to help defend critical infrastructure within the United States because it is under attack by some foreign nation or some individual or group," Rogers told the House Select Committee on Intelligence this morning (EST). Rogers, who also serves as commander of the US Cyber Command, says the government is better prepared to defend against those attacks than it was two years ago.On November 24th, the Federal Reserve will conduct a fixed-rate offering of term deposits through its Term Deposit Facility (TDF) that will incorporate an early withdrawal feature. This feature will allow depository institutions to obtain a return of funds prior to the maturity date subject to an early withdrawal penalty. The Federal Reserve will offer eight-day term deposits with an interest rate of 0.29000% and a maximum tender amount of $20,000,000,000. The penalty for early withdrawal is 0.75%, the minimum tender per institution is $20,000,000,000 - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +29.72 points higher or +0.90% to 3345.32, taking the year-to-date performance to +5.70%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.64% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.83%. The top active stocks were SingTel (+0.51%), UOB (+1.37%), DBS (+1.64%), Keppel Corp (+0.22%) and OCBC Bank (+1.16%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index (+1.70%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index are Midas Holdings (+1.72%) and Geo Energy Resources (+3.02%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Technology Index, which gained +0.16% with Silverlake Axis’s share price gaining 0.41% and STATS ChipPAC’s share price unchanged. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value were the IS MSCI India (+1.70%), SPDR Gold Shares (+0.34%), DBXT MSCI Singapore IM ETF (unchanged). The most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Suntec REIT (unchanged), Ascendas REIT (unchanged), CapitaCom Trust (+0.89%) - In an interview with US online service Careers Info-Security News Greg Shannon, chief scientist at the CERT Division of Carnegie Mellon University's Software Engineering Institute says that to defeat cyber-adversaries, cybersecurity professionals should adopt a contrarian attitude, says. "Having that contrarian point of view allows you to get into the mindset of the adversary," Shannon says in an interview with Information Security Media Group. "How would this technology work if it did something the designer of it didn't think of?" he asks. "Certainly, that's the way the adversary is thinking, coming up with new attacks, new threats. They're looking at an app, a piece of software or some websites, [and they think] 'What can I do here that the designer didn't think of? Is there a way to get information through channels, through tricks that weren't anticipated? Is there some frailty of humans that I can exploit to get information out of them that they wouldn't normally give me?'" – Raiffeisen Bank International warned in an analyst conference call yesterday that profits in its Russian business would be challenged in Q4 versus Q3. The bank’s Chief Financial Officer Martin Gruell said higher risk provisioning and increased operating expenses could cut profits in its single most profitable market. "I would expect the fourth quarter to be a bit lower than the third quarter," he said. He believes the worst of the rouble's devaluation is over, but explained that the impact on the group’s capital from the dip in the ruble, could push RBI's core capital below 10% of risk-weighted assets by the end of this year - The performance of the Dutch residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market remained stable during the three-month period ended September 2014, according to the latest indices published by Moody's Investors Service. The 60+ day delinquencies of Dutch RMBS, including Dutch mortgage loans benefitting from a Nationale Hypotheek Garantie, decreased to 0.95% in September 2014 from 0.98% in June 2014. At the same time, the 90+ day delinquencies decreased to 0.72% during the three-month period compared with 0.75% in June 2014. Cumulative defaults continued to increase to 0.54% of the original balance, plus additions (in the case of Master Issuers) and replenishments in September 2014, compared with 0.47% in June 2014, says the ratings agency. Cumulative losses slightly increased to 0.11% in September 2014 from 0.10% in June 2014 – According to a Clearstream client bulletin on November 18th, the US Internal Revenue Service and the US Treasury published an amendment to the current temporary regulations (TD9657) regarding FATCA. The amendment impacts Foreign Financial Institutions (FFIs) who have entered into an agreement with the IRS to become a participating FFI. It amends the determination date and timing for reporting with respect to the 2014 calendar year.

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.



Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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