Tuesday 29th July 2014
slib33
The Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP) released a 49% drop in net earnings in the first half of 2014, as it came in to just PHP3.2bn, almost half of its net earnings in the same period last year. In the April to June period alone, net income fell 36% from PHP2.18bn in the second quarter of 2013 to PHP1.6bn in the second quarter of 2014. However, it is important to note that net interest income grew by 29% year-on-year, as it came in at PHP5.2bn in the half of 2014 – Rangold chief executive Mark Bristow will present the firm’s Q2 results at noon on Thursday this week at The Forum, London Stock Exchange Around 10.00 am today some traders on Moscow Exchange’s Derivatives Market reportedly experienced difficulties entering orders via the FIX protocol, with some valid messages rejected with an error code. The FIX protocol has been functioning as usual since 11:37 am says the exchange. Moreover, the exchange stresses other protocols to access the Derivatives Market’s trading system have been functioning as usual - Société Générale Securities Services in Luxembourg has been mandated by wealth manager Bedrock, with $6bn in assets under management, to provide custody, fund administration and registrar services for its range of UCITS funds - Moody's Investors Service has assigned a first-time provisional (P)B3 corporate family rating (CFR) to Empik Media & Fashion SA Group. At the same time, Moody's has assigned a provisional (P)B2 rating to the firm’s proposed senior secured notes due 2019 to be issued at EM&F Financing AB, a wholly owned and guaranteed subsidiary of EMF, reflecting its overall ranking within the debt capital structure. The outlook on the ratings is stable. This is the first time Moody's has assigned ratings to EMF - Lithuania will adopt the euro on January 1st next year. Lithuania will become the 19th member state to adopt the euro. "Lithuania's consistent efforts have paid off: today the eurozone has opened the door for us," said Algirdas Butkevičius, prime minister of Lithuania, on the announcement. The entry of Lithuania into the euro family is of great importance for the whole euro area. "It's a demonstration of the continuing attractiveness of the single currency project and its relevance for the future of our community," added Sandro Gozi, State Secretary for European Affairs of Italy and President of the Council of the EU. The conversion rate has been set at 3.45280 Lithuanian litas to the euro – Global macro hedge fund manager Atreaus Capital is now live with SunGard’s Hedge360 Risk Reporting Service. Delivered as a managed service, the Hedge360 Risk Reporting Service provides highly customized daily risk reports, offering transparency to investors and integrated internal risk management to hedge funds. Trading a broad range of products with an emphasis on FX and commodities, in the form of both OTC derivatives and futures - AnaCap Financial Partners LLP, the specialist European financial services private equity firm, together with HIG and Deutsche Bank, have completed the acquisition of a €495m portfolio of non-performing and sub-performing loans from Volksbank Romania. Under terms of the agreement, funds advised by AnaCap will jointly acquire the entire portfolio with HIG and Deutsche Bank. The portfolio of 3,566 loans in total is backed by a mix of primarily residential, commercial real estate and development land. APS Romania will be appointed as Master Servicer. The transaction is the largest of its kind in Romania to date, and came about as a result of the ongoing pressure on financial institutions across Europe to restructure and divest assets in order to clean up balance sheets and comply with new capital requirements. After a prolonged correction following the financial crisis, the property market in Romania is now showing strong signs of improvement. GDP and unemployment have recovered on the back of labour market reforms in 2011 and an IMF financing package. House prices, which declined 38% since their peak in mid-2008, are now on the rise, with the areas surrounding central Bucharest and other main cities increasing 4% for 2013.

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.

Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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