Tuesday 26th May 2015
NEWS TICKER: TUESDAY, MAY 26th: The National Settlement Depository (NSD), Russia’s central securities depository, today announced that Alexander Nazarov has been appointed director of research and development Department. Nazarov will be coordinating the issues of product range development and NSD service improvement. His new responsibilities will also include developing the company’s correspondent and international relations - The UK’s Personal Finance Society (PFS) has called for greater control of non-regulated savings and investment activity, by bringing it under ‘the same umbrella’ as regulated advice. PFS chief executive, Keith Richards, said there needs to be greater clarity in the mind of consumers, on the distinction between regulated investment advice and non-regulated activities. The value of bridging loans written in the year ended March 2015 have grown by almost a half on last year’s results, according to Association of Short Term Lenders ASTL's quarterly figures - The UK’s Association of Short Term Lenders (ASTL) has revealed in its quarterly figures that £2.35bn worth of loans were written by members in the year ended March 2015, where the overall loan book expanded by 43%compared to the same period in 2014. While bridging loan applications are still increasing with a 29% year-on-year rise, the figures showed that the pace has slowed from 63% growth. A 19% drop from Q4 2015 to the first quarter of this year was also highlighted, albeit “not considered to be a concern” – According to press reports, Richard Pyman has taken a leave of absence from his role as Chief Executive Officer at Shawbrook Bank due to illness. Pyman, who was appointed as CEO of the challenger bank in April 2014 after joining the group two years before, is taking temporary leave from his role after following medical advice. Pyman’s leave of absence was announced just as the group released its Q1 2015 results; and the bank began to bed down the proceeds from its early-April IPO, which raised £90m. Tom Wood, the lender’s Chief Financial Officer, will be filling in for Richard during his absence as interim Chief Executive Officer, while still continuing his normal role with support from Stephen Johnson - Cordea Savills, the international property investment manager has sold Erneside Shopping Centre, Enniskillen, Northern Ireland on behalf of a corporate pension fund client for £34.25m. The 163,000 sq ft shopping centre comprises 34 retail units and 666 car parking spaces. It is located in the centre of Enniskillen, the largest town in the region, and the dominant retail location. The centre, which is more than 97% let by floor area, is anchored by Marks & Spencer and Next which is currently being extended to include both their fashion and homeware formats. The asset was acquired by the Fund in 1995 and has evolved with two comprehensive phases of extension and remodelling in 1998-2000 and 2006-2008 -

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.



Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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