Friday 27th February 2015
NEWS TICKER, FEBRUARY 26TH 2015: The CME Group says that the volume in the Mexican peso interest rate clearing in the opening weeks of 2015 has outstripped the volume recorded in the whole of 2014. January was a particularly good month, with record volume m with $50bn cleared (MXN760bn), and $163bn cleared since launch. Meanwhile open Interest has grown to over $139.5bn (MXN2trn) – doubling since the start of the year - Italy’s payment systems specialist SIA reports operating margin up 22.5% at €81.9m and revenues up 7% at €336.9m over the 2014 financial year. The firm says it has proposed an ordinary dividend of €0.21 per share, with a total value of €35.68m. The firm reports a substantive 146% growth in the number of payment transactions processed through 2014 (touching 12bn over the year, with 9.2bn of those related to credit transfers (up 316%) and 3bn via cards (up 9%). The firm also reports a 5% increase in trading and post-trading operations, with service levels of 100%. The firm notes the success of its “Jiffy” service launch in the year, the new “Person to Person” (P2P) payments service, an App permitting money transfer in real time by Smartphone to a user’s contacts, associating the IBAN code of the account with the phone number included - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended -14.65 points lower or -0.43% to 3426.18, taking the year-to-date performance to +1.81%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -0.31% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.29%. The top active stocks were SingTel (-0.47%), DBS (-0.66%), Global Logistic (+1.17%), UOB (-0.26%) and OCBC Bank (-0.38%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index (+0.77%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index are Wilmar International (+1.85%) and Thai Beverage (+0.71%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which declined -1.28% with Midas Holdings’s share price declining 3.08% and Geo Energy Resources’s share price unchanged. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (-0.12%), STI ETF (-0.87%), SPDR Gold Shares (+0.50%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were CapitaMall Trust (unchanged), Ascendas REIT (-1.59%), Suntec REIT (-0.51%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI25000MBeCW150330 (+5.50%), HSI25000MBeCW150429 (+7.38%), HSI24400MBePW150330 (-10.11%). The most active stock warrants by value today were OCBC Bk MBeCW150803 (-5.74%), SGX MB eCW150803 (-1.16%), DBS MB eCW150915 (-5.33%) -World Bank today called for more transparency in India's power subsidy regime and suggested re-identification of the target population to improve the balance-sheets of losses-stricken distribution companies. The global development finance body says the sector should be allowed to operate in a commercially viable manner by ensuring that those firms that are not eligible for subsidy pay for what they consume - The country witnessed a decline of 12 per cent in solar power generation at a total 883 MW last year, according to energy consulting firm Mercom Capital Group. Total solar energy installations in 2013 stood at 1,004 MW, it said. However, its 2015 forecast remained unchanged at an approximately 1,800 MW with some upside - BNP Paribas Securities Services has appointed Andrea Cattaneo as head of Brazil. "We have expanded our custody offering in Brazil and across Latin America in recent years with great success," says Alvaro Camuñas, head of Spain and Latin America at BNP Paribas SS - A new draft text on an EU system for the use of Passenger Name Record (PNR) data, tabled by lead MEP Timothy Kirkhope (ECR, UK), was discussed in the civil liberties committee on Thursday morning. An evaluation of the necessity and proportionality of the proposal in the face of current security threats, its scope (list of offences covered), retention periods, the inclusion or exclusion of intra-EU flights, the connection with the on-going data protection reform, as well as the consequences of the EU Court of Justice judgement annulling the 2006 data retention directive, were among the issues discussed by MEPs. The 2011 Commission proposal would require more systematic collection, use and retention of PNR data on passengers taking “international” flights (those entering the EU from, or leaving it for, a third country), and would therefore have an impact on the rights to privacy and data protection.

The push and pull of willpower & politics

Friday, 25 May 2012
The push and pull of willpower & politics June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

June will be a battle between political will and economics. While European leaders continue to insist that they want Greece to remain in the eurozone, they are continually being reminded of the economic reality that a break-up of the single currency is almost certain. What is becoming more apparent day by day is that the markets will simply not allow the likes of Greece to have their cake and eat it without paying for it too. Whether Europe’s politicians will listen to those market siren calls for change has yet to be determined.

If the Germans and French remain reluctant to put their money in the pockets by either using the ECB’s potential firepower or create a special eurobond then they could themselves become the very nemesis of the single currency that they tell us they are so desperate to keep. Even so, risk aversion continues to whittle down the markets; at the time of writing the index is at 5380, down some 25 points. Traders are watching term support trends at 5335, 5300 and 5275; hopeful bulls out there will be looking for resistance at 5490, 5615/45. This near term downward trend sees the index capped by a downward trend line that also puts some resistance at 5450. Over the longer term now that the index has broken below its 200 day moving average and its upward trend line a close below 5400 could been seen as very negative and we’re now in the ­territory of people not wanting to catch a falling knife.

While immediate market focus will remain on Europe and its affect on the macro picture, there are a couple of important pieces of data that UK investors should note. First, following a surprising improvement in April, unemployment numbers are likely to show a weakening labour market.  There’s little in the way of encouraging data from the UK at the moment, but last month’s data was the first ­indication that unemployment is ­starting to peak. Job creation has come largely from part time rather than ­permanent work and the tick downwards to 8.3% in the rate of unemployment is expected to rise back to 8.4%. Second, it will be interesting to see whether the upcoming Bank of England’s inflation report will encourage the central bank to stick to their hawkish guns or whether the ­confirmation of the double dip recession and a further downgrading of growth projections will result in a more dove-ish tone.



Other European indicators are not great either: Italian ten year yields have crossed back above 6% and for Spain back above 6.5%, meanwhile risk adverse investors piled into German bunds driving their cost of borrowing even lower. This is classic fear gripping the markets once again as the vicissitudes of 2012 look to be playing out in a very similar fashion to 2011. Financial markets detest uncertainty and at the moment they are riddled with them since Greece has been unable to form a government and has had to call for a new round of  elections on 17th June. Up until that point we can expect volatility to remain high and continued pressure to the downside.

The euro made a low of $1.2720 as the situation in Greece continues to deteriorate. Bears sold the single ­currency heavily after socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos announced that talks to form a coalition government had failed and that the public would have to go back to the polls next month. Gold continued to fall as traders dumped risky assets and piled into the safety of the US dollar. Spot gold traded as low as $1541 an ounce.  With little technical support seen until $1531 and no turn around in Greece on the horizon, the down trend looks set to stay firmly in place.

On top of all the European woes there’s also the growing concern that China is slowing down quicker than was previously thought. Add any downturn to the euro crisis and it has negative connotations for global growth.

As ever, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets...

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