Monday 28th July 2014
slib33
FRIDAY ANALYSTS TICKER: July 25th 2014 - According to Adam Cordery, global head of European fixed income, Santander Asset Management, and fund manager for the Santander Euro Corporate Short Term and Euro Corporate bond funds, “Pricing of risk assets doesn’t offer much of a margin for error at the moment. And now Europe is starting to go on holiday, market liquidity may get poorer than normal, and any buys today may well have to be holds until September. It is always interesting to note what yields are required to attract clients to financial products. Twenty years ago, bond funds offering yields of 10%+ could generally attract lots of client interest very quickly. However as rates have come down over the years, so the yields clients demand have fallen. Now 4% seems to be the new 10%, he say. Cordery thinks that unfortunately, investors often want today the yield/risk mix that was available last year, so the products that get launched, sold and bought in size may be more risky than people think. “Products with 4% yield will sell well today, but to get to a 4% yield in Euro you need to invest in a portfolio with an average rating of single-B, and that is far from being risk-free. I get the impression the conventional wisdom today is to think that interest rates must surely go up soon and the main risk to bond portfolios is an increase in bund yields. Because of this many investors are buying short-duration products and floating rate notes, perhaps viewing them as a safe choice, almost like cash. It is possible however that these products may yet prove to have a considerable sensitivity to changes in credit market spreads and/or bond market liquidity, and may prove to be no protection at all.” - Commenting on the RBS share price jump, Dr Pete Hahn of Cass Business School, says “It's hard to tell whether the RBS share price jump today is more about relief or optimism. The former is about fewer fines, fewer losses on loans, and fewer costs in a shrinking business and possibly dividends for shareholders. And there's the rub, owning shares (as opposed to interest bearing debt) should be about optimism and long-term growth in dividends. But from a shrinking business? Few would argue that RBS' retail and corporate bank had efficiencies to be gained and cash flow that might be converted to dividends; yet like most banks, RBS' cost of equity remains stubbornly and appropriately above its ability to provide a return on that equity. For shareholders, current improvements should mean dividends in the medium term but a recognition that RBS may lack any merit for new investment and delivering any long-term dividend growth - not good. While many large retail banks are getting safer, in some aspects, and we often speak of them in terms of moving toward utility type models, banks take risks, are cyclical, face competition, have new business challengers, and are simply are not utilities. Investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves here.” - According to the monthly survey held by the central bank of Turkey, the country’s capacity utilization (CU) rate declined slightly to 74.9% in July from 75.3% in June. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted (SA) CU also declined to 74.3% from 74.7% in June, writes Mehmet Besimoglu at Oyak Yatirim Research. As for manufacturing confidence, the index declined to 109 from 110.7 in May. On SA basis, the index also edged down slightly to 106.4 from 107.2. SA capacity utilisation was broadly stable in 1H14, averaging at 74.7%. This is the same level with the 2013 average. Despite the political turmoil and volatility in financial markets, activity has been relatively resilient. Export recovery & government spending supported production in 1H. Following the elections, public spending relatively decelerated. The turmoil in Iraq also decelerated export recovery from June. Nevertheless, we still expect 3.5% GDP growth in 2014, writes Besimoglu.

RBC Dexia/Accenture report says change is due in Spanish investment industry

Friday, 15 June 2012
RBC Dexia/Accenture report says change is due in Spanish investment industry The shape of Spain’s asset management industry is set to change dramatically according to a report by RBC Dexia and Accenture. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The shape of Spain’s asset management industry is set to change dramatically according to a report by RBC Dexia and Accenture.

The RBC Dexia/Accenture report predicts further concentration of Spain’s asset management industry into fewer, more specialised managers and a stronger focus on improving efficiency and performance. Improvements in technology will also be vital to success, with outsourcing high on the agenda. José Maria Alonso-Gama, managing director of RBC Dexia in Spain, sets the scene, explaining that: “Spanish fund firms are concentrating on bottom-line indicators such as fund performance and increased assets under management. They recognise the need to restore credibility and investor confidence by showing they are delivering on their performance promises.”

The report is based on a survey of 33 asset management firms in Spain in the first quarter of 2012 by RBC Dexia Investor Services and Accenture. Some 33% of respondents have more than €1bn in assets under management (AUM), 46% have between €200m and €1bn in AUM and 21% have less than €200m in AUM.

Although the industry is dominated by a small number of firms, with the top three managers accounting for 45 percent of assets under management, the average size of funds in Spain is only €57m. This compares with an average of €300m in Switzerland and €262m in the UK. The total number of funds in Spain has been contracting (down by about 20% to 2,500 in the past three years due to industry consolidation) and the report expects this trend to continue with, “The evolution of larger and more specialised companies with rationalised fund ranges”.

Also according to the report, of the 33 investment companies surveyed, 95% of local managers and 91% of foreign managers cited increased assets under management as a key indicator of success over the next two years. Fund performance was cited by 91% and 73% respectively and increased service quality by 86% and 45%. When it came to development of new products, 36% of foreign managers cited this as important but only 9% of local managers.

Over 80% of independent managers in Spain believe that the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities IV (UCITS IV) directive will make it easier to distribute investment funds abroad by creating a common regulatory environment. However, 70% of local managers were also concerned that it would lead to increased competition from overseas funds while independent managers were worried it would result in increased reporting obligations.

More than two-thirds of respondents cited improving technology as the most important factor in increasing efficiency. Most managers (90% of foreign managers and all local Spanish managers) expected an increase in the number of fund managers outsourcing certain functions in coming years. And 90% of those surveyed said there would be an increase in the diversity of functions outsourced in coming years. “The increased risks control imposed by new regulations and cross-border distribution opportunities that they also create, require increasingly sophisticated technology,” says Diego López Abellán, of Accenture’s Capital Markets practice for Spain. “Outsourcing can play a pivotal role in enabling continuous technology upgrades while avoiding costly investment.

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