Saturday 26th July 2014
slib33
FRIDAY ANALYSTS TICKER: July 25th 2014 - According to Adam Cordery, global head of European fixed income, Santander Asset Management, and fund manager for the Santander Euro Corporate Short Term and Euro Corporate bond funds, “Pricing of risk assets doesn’t offer much of a margin for error at the moment. And now Europe is starting to go on holiday, market liquidity may get poorer than normal, and any buys today may well have to be holds until September. It is always interesting to note what yields are required to attract clients to financial products. Twenty years ago, bond funds offering yields of 10%+ could generally attract lots of client interest very quickly. However as rates have come down over the years, so the yields clients demand have fallen. Now 4% seems to be the new 10%, he say. Cordery thinks that unfortunately, investors often want today the yield/risk mix that was available last year, so the products that get launched, sold and bought in size may be more risky than people think. “Products with 4% yield will sell well today, but to get to a 4% yield in Euro you need to invest in a portfolio with an average rating of single-B, and that is far from being risk-free. I get the impression the conventional wisdom today is to think that interest rates must surely go up soon and the main risk to bond portfolios is an increase in bund yields. Because of this many investors are buying short-duration products and floating rate notes, perhaps viewing them as a safe choice, almost like cash. It is possible however that these products may yet prove to have a considerable sensitivity to changes in credit market spreads and/or bond market liquidity, and may prove to be no protection at all.” - Commenting on the RBS share price jump, Dr Pete Hahn of Cass Business School, says “It's hard to tell whether the RBS share price jump today is more about relief or optimism. The former is about fewer fines, fewer losses on loans, and fewer costs in a shrinking business and possibly dividends for shareholders. And there's the rub, owning shares (as opposed to interest bearing debt) should be about optimism and long-term growth in dividends. But from a shrinking business? Few would argue that RBS' retail and corporate bank had efficiencies to be gained and cash flow that might be converted to dividends; yet like most banks, RBS' cost of equity remains stubbornly and appropriately above its ability to provide a return on that equity. For shareholders, current improvements should mean dividends in the medium term but a recognition that RBS may lack any merit for new investment and delivering any long-term dividend growth - not good. While many large retail banks are getting safer, in some aspects, and we often speak of them in terms of moving toward utility type models, banks take risks, are cyclical, face competition, have new business challengers, and are simply are not utilities. Investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves here.” - According to the monthly survey held by the central bank of Turkey, the country’s capacity utilization (CU) rate declined slightly to 74.9% in July from 75.3% in June. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted (SA) CU also declined to 74.3% from 74.7% in June, writes Mehmet Besimoglu at Oyak Yatirim Research. As for manufacturing confidence, the index declined to 109 from 110.7 in May. On SA basis, the index also edged down slightly to 106.4 from 107.2. SA capacity utilisation was broadly stable in 1H14, averaging at 74.7%. This is the same level with the 2013 average. Despite the political turmoil and volatility in financial markets, activity has been relatively resilient. Export recovery & government spending supported production in 1H. Following the elections, public spending relatively decelerated. The turmoil in Iraq also decelerated export recovery from June. Nevertheless, we still expect 3.5% GDP growth in 2014, writes Besimoglu.

Asian hedge funds outperformed regional equity markets

Tuesday, 07 February 2012
Asian hedge funds outperformed regional equity markets Asian hedge funds outperformed volatile regional equity markets in 2011, marking the second consecutive year of such outperformance, according to data released by Hedge Fund Research Inc (HFR).  http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Asian hedge funds outperformed volatile regional equity markets in 2011, marking the second consecutive year of such outperformance, according to data released by Hedge Fund Research Inc (HFR). 

In a year marked by a difficult cycle of navigating steep equity market declines in Japan and Emerging Asia, the benchmark HFRX Asia with Japan Index posted a narrow gain of +0.4 percent in 4Q11 to end 2011 with a decline of -5.2 percent, mirroring the performance of the broad-based HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index and topping the Nikkei 225 and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1,200 and nearly 1,700 basis points (bps), respectively. The recently launched HFRX Korea Index posted a gain of +4.8 percent for 4Q11 and, despite declining -7.5 percent for the full calendar year, also topped the benchmark Kospi Index by nearly 350 bps for 2011.

Global investors reduced capital invested in the Asian hedge fund industry by $1.04 billion in 4Q11, the first quarterly net outflow to Asian hedge funds since 1Q10. For the full year 2011, Asian hedge funds experienced a net inflow of $6.6 billion, representing a +7.5 percent increase in total AUM in these funds, bringing total estimated capital in Asian hedge funds to $82.1 billion to conclude the year. Contrary to trends across the global hedge fund industry, two-thirds of the new capital invested in Asian hedge funds in 2011 went to Equity Hedge strategies, with Event Driven and Relative Value Arbitrage also experiencing net increases in capital. While the largest sub-strategy for Asian hedge funds continues to be Equity Hedge: Fundamental Growth, funds executing on Distressed, Market Neutral and Event Driven: Multi-Strategy have experienced capital increases, while AUM dedicated to Macro and Activist funds has declined over the past year.

The total number of Asian hedge funds has also continued to increase, ending 2011 at nearly 1,100 funds, a gain of 4 percent for the year, and growth which has been consistent across both Emerging and Developed Asia. In addition, the number of funds choosing to locate in Asia also increased for the year, with China, Singapore and Australia all showing increases, while the number located in the US declined for the year. The percentage of Asian-focused hedge funds located in China increased to 28.6 percent in the second half of 2011, while the percentage located in the US declined to 26.4 percent.

“2011 was a challenging year for Asian hedge funds not only as a function of complexities associated with Asian inflation, natural disasters and speculation on currency policy, but also as related to assessing the potential impact that the European sovereign debt crisis could have on Asian trade, financial market liquidity and currency levels,” says Kenneth  Heinz, president of HFR. “The increased proliferation of specialised, Asian-located funds executing on uncorrelated, market neutral strategies and the relative performance benefits these offer are likely to attract capital from both Asian and global investors as cyclical risk tolerance increases in 2012.”

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