Friday 31st October 2014
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FRIDAY TICKER: OCTOBER 31TH 2014: - The re-election of President Dilma Rousseff on Sunday has important implications for Brazil's Baa2 sovereign rating, as well as for the credit quality of the country's banks, corporations and securitisations, says Moody's. The rating agency says the narrow margin of her victory underscores the challenges she faces as she looks to revive Brazil's lacklustre economic performance - Facebook has reported third quarter results, again showing strongest year-on-year growth in mobile, where daily active users (DAUS) rose by 39% to 703 million, while overall daily users rose 19% to 864 million DAUS - Francisco Partners, a global technology-focused private equity firm, today announced it has completed the acquisition of Vendavo, Inc., a leader in business-to-business (B2B) pricing solutions. David Mitchell, an operating partner of Francisco Partners, will join Vendavo as CEO and lead the company’s worldwide business strategy and operations. Incumbent CEO Neil Lustig will transition into an advisory role with Vendavo. Francisco Partners now has a controlling stake in the Silicon Valley company. The acquisition by Francisco Partners provides additional resources to bolster Vendavo’s aggressive growth strategy, enabling the company to expand sales and marketing while accelerating cloud development. Vendavo completed a record first half of 2014, with nearly 30-percent growth in bookings, and the release of two breakthrough solutions for price and sales effectiveness. Based in Mountain View, Calif., Vendavo provides revenue and price optimisation solutions for B2B mid-market and enterprise companies.Francisco Partners was advised by JMP Securities, and Vendavo was advised by William Blair. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed – The International Finance Corporation, or IFC, issued the four-year, triple-A rated bond only to Japanese retail investors, tapping into the growing interest in low-risk investments with a social or environmental focus. The World Bank, has sold several billion dollars in green bonds over the past six years, with proceeds going to help countries and firms cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. The latest offering, Inclusive Business bonds, would finance firms that work with or sell to the 4.5bn people in the world that make less than $8 a day. IFC said while most poor people do not spend a lot individually, as a whole they represent an estimated $5trn consumer market that firms could tap into - NAKA Mobile, a telecoms and technology specialist based in Switzerland, has claimed the industry’s first virtualised evolved packet core (vEPC). Utilising Cisco’s NFV services, NAKA claims it will transform its network architecture, expand beyond Switzerland, and provide its mobile Internet services to customers across the world - The Internet Society and Alcatel-Lucent have agreed to provide support and equipment for the development of the Bangkok Internet Exchange Point (BKNIX). The project will utilise the Internet Society’s Interconnection and Traffic Exchange (ITE) programme and is intended to deliver a stronger and more robust Internet infrastructure for South East Asia.

BlackRock's 2013 market outlook predicts improving investment prospects

Sunday, 23 December 2012
BlackRock's 2013 market outlook predicts improving investment prospects Prospects are improving for a positive albeit gradual turn next year in global economic and investment conditions, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s 2013 investment outlook.  The report, entitled ‘Slow Turn Ahead?’ urges investors to keep a close eye on the impact of government policy – first and foremost, the urgent effort to avoid the fiscal cliff in the US, which will drive the direction of both the US and global economies in the New Year. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Prospects are improving for a positive albeit gradual turn next year in global economic and investment conditions, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s 2013 investment outlook.  The report, entitled ‘Slow Turn Ahead?’ urges investors to keep a close eye on the impact of government policy – first and foremost, the urgent effort to avoid the fiscal cliff in the US, which will drive the direction of both the US and global economies in the New Year.

“Our big questions for 2013 are whether the wave of ultra-loose monetary policies and quantitative easing has crested and if private sector credit can stage a modest recovery,” says Ewen Cameron Watt, BII’s chief investment strategist. “Trillions of dollars in monetary stimulus and record low interest rates have failed to spur much credit growth and economic activity so far. But what if this changes? Policy - fiscal, monetary and regulatory - drove markets in 2012 and will remain central to 2013 outcomes,” adds Cameron Watt.

With central banks apparently refocusing monetary stimulus away from preventing a financial sector collapse and towards targeting economic growth, next steps by the US Federal Reserve will merit particularly close attention, according to the report.



“We do not expect the Fed to raise rates any time soon. But it could take its foot off the monetary accelerator on signs of quickening job growth in the second half of 2013,”says Cameron Wat. “Markets need only a whiff of a Fed preparing to slow its QE programmes because of improving employment to empty some of the vast store of investor money in cash and low-yielding fixed income assets, and put it into equities.”

In the US, much hinges on efforts to avoid the fiscal cliff, a set of tax hikes and spending cuts set to go into effect on 1 January. "The United States may turn the corner on growth – if Washington can avoid falling off the fiscal cliff and negotiate a long-term budget reduction plan,” according to the report. Regulation remains an important focus too, whether it be financial sector reform in the developed world or social security and welfare reforms in emerging economies. Politics also will play a role again in 2013 with elections in, among other nations, Italy, Germany and Israel, alongside US budget reform.

BII’s Five-Point Summary for 2013

  1. We have become more upbeat about the prospects for risk assets and stabilising economic growth (albeit at low levels). Low expectations = potential upside surprises.
  2. The US economy should gain momentum and help boost global growth – IF Washington can avoid the “fiscal cliff” and compromise on a sustainable budget.
  3. Many investors lack conviction in markets where risk taking is often punished and trends last a skinny minute. Rome – and confidence – was not built in a day.
  4. The era of ultra-loose monetary policy may draw to a close, challenging “safe” fixed income assets and heralding a shift toward equities. Safety = new tail risk.
  5. Income investing works in a zero-rate world – but the hunt for yield has narrowed valuations between top-quality and not-so great income assets. Take out the garbage. 

So What Do I Do With My Money?

Here is a summary of the BII’s investment recommendations for 2013:

Fixed Income: Danger in Safety

Prices of safe-haven government bonds and similar assets could plunge when yields start to rise. Low yield = high price risk.  We like global high yield and US munis for income – but do not expect much capital appreciation. We favour emerging market debt.  In Europe, we prefer Italian and Spanish bonds over debt of weaker core countries. We are bullish on commercial mortgage-backed securities and collaterised loan obligations.

Equities: Global Smorgasbord

We like global companies with strong balance sheets, steady cash flows and growing dividends. We favour high-quality US stocks, global energy and emerging markets.  We are bullish on domestic consumption plays in Brazil and China, North Asian cyclical stocks, and Mexican banks and industrials. We like discounted exporters on Europe’s periphery and small “self-help” UK companies.

Commodities: Long View

We like metals with long-term supply gaps and agricultural commodities.  China’s appetite is huge.

Currencies: Dollar Bulls

We are bullish on the US dollar due to the country’s energy boom and long-term growth prospects.

Good and Bad Income

Income investing remains our strategy of choice in a zero-rate world. The hunt for yield has created pockets of overheating and narrowed valuations between top-quality and less desirable income assets. The report details the state of play in fixed income, high yield, emerging market debt, municipal bonds, dividends, and real estate investment trusts.

 

Pain Trades

Our biggest contrarian idea is buying Japanese exporters while selling the yen. Other pain trades include selling “safe” tobacco stocks, buying US companies with cash piles abroad, and buying securities of European and US financials. We have warmed up to Indian equities after the country’s reforms on foreign investment.

The Gift of Insurance

Short-term implied volatility is eerily low whereas policy uncertainties are near financial crisis levels. Consider options to hedge downside and upside risks.

Volatility Reversal?

The fire hose of monetary liquidity and investor hunger for yield has depressed short-term volatility, so maybe a reversal will have the opposite effect.

 

 

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