Friday 25th July 2014
slib33
FRIDAY ANALYSTS TICKER: July 25th 2014 - According to Adam Cordery, global head of European fixed income, Santander Asset Management, and fund manager for the Santander Euro Corporate Short Term and Euro Corporate bond funds, “Pricing of risk assets doesn’t offer much of a margin for error at the moment. And now Europe is starting to go on holiday, market liquidity may get poorer than normal, and any buys today may well have to be holds until September. It is always interesting to note what yields are required to attract clients to financial products. Twenty years ago, bond funds offering yields of 10%+ could generally attract lots of client interest very quickly. However as rates have come down over the years, so the yields clients demand have fallen. Now 4% seems to be the new 10%, he say. Cordery thinks that unfortunately, investors often want today the yield/risk mix that was available last year, so the products that get launched, sold and bought in size may be more risky than people think. “Products with 4% yield will sell well today, but to get to a 4% yield in Euro you need to invest in a portfolio with an average rating of single-B, and that is far from being risk-free. I get the impression the conventional wisdom today is to think that interest rates must surely go up soon and the main risk to bond portfolios is an increase in bund yields. Because of this many investors are buying short-duration products and floating rate notes, perhaps viewing them as a safe choice, almost like cash. It is possible however that these products may yet prove to have a considerable sensitivity to changes in credit market spreads and/or bond market liquidity, and may prove to be no protection at all.” - Commenting on the RBS share price jump, Dr Pete Hahn of Cass Business School, says “It's hard to tell whether the RBS share price jump today is more about relief or optimism. The former is about fewer fines, fewer losses on loans, and fewer costs in a shrinking business and possibly dividends for shareholders. And there's the rub, owning shares (as opposed to interest bearing debt) should be about optimism and long-term growth in dividends. But from a shrinking business? Few would argue that RBS' retail and corporate bank had efficiencies to be gained and cash flow that might be converted to dividends; yet like most banks, RBS' cost of equity remains stubbornly and appropriately above its ability to provide a return on that equity. For shareholders, current improvements should mean dividends in the medium term but a recognition that RBS may lack any merit for new investment and delivering any long-term dividend growth - not good. While many large retail banks are getting safer, in some aspects, and we often speak of them in terms of moving toward utility type models, banks take risks, are cyclical, face competition, have new business challengers, and are simply are not utilities. Investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves here.” - According to the monthly survey held by the central bank of Turkey, the country’s capacity utilization (CU) rate declined slightly to 74.9% in July from 75.3% in June. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted (SA) CU also declined to 74.3% from 74.7% in June, writes Mehmet Besimoglu at Oyak Yatirim Research. As for manufacturing confidence, the index declined to 109 from 110.7 in May. On SA basis, the index also edged down slightly to 106.4 from 107.2. SA capacity utilisation was broadly stable in 1H14, averaging at 74.7%. This is the same level with the 2013 average. Despite the political turmoil and volatility in financial markets, activity has been relatively resilient. Export recovery & government spending supported production in 1H. Following the elections, public spending relatively decelerated. The turmoil in Iraq also decelerated export recovery from June. Nevertheless, we still expect 3.5% GDP growth in 2014, writes Besimoglu.

BofA Merrill Lynch says Investor market sentiment slowly improving in Europe

Tuesday, 14 August 2012
BofA Merrill Lynch says Investor market sentiment slowly improving in Europe Bank of America Merrill Lynch today presented the results of their August Fund Manager Survey, reporting a global increase in investor confidence buoyed by expectations of ECB policy initiatives. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Bank of America Merrill Lynch today presented the results of their August Fund Manager Survey, reporting a global increase in investor confidence buoyed by expectations of ECB policy initiatives.

Fully 80% of the 173 fund managers surveyed by BoAML at the start of the month believed that the ECB would engage in additional quantitative easing by the year end (and ~40% within the next month), compared to fewer than 50% who thought the Federal Reserve would take measures in the USA this year.

European equities strategist at the bank, Manish Kabra, said, “Draghi’s statements have been largely successful in removing investor pessimism and have alleviated some pressure on the Eurozone- global asset allocations are still underweight towards Europe, but we have seen the largest uptick in sentiment since early 2009.”

This sentiment has been expressed by increased asset allocation in the Eurozone, whilst fund managers are moving to reduce previously overweight positions in US equities. Kabra states, “Earnings season hasn’t been great in the US- particularly technologies, but we are seeing sentiment to real estate improving on the back of US stabilisation in the sector.”

Less than 10% of managers are now ruling out any form of QE by the ECB due to the promise of policy stimulus, and overall positions are showing small shifts in favour of equities and commodities over bonds. Cash holdings were slightly reduced but remain at historically high levels of 4.7% portfolio value. It is worth noting that despite the improving sentiment, attitudes to Europe are still net 13% negative overall. The ECB’s rhetoric has calmed nerves, but needs to translate into action or the Eurozone equity rally could be short-lived.

Globally, investor outlook has improved in the past month- fears over the Eurozone have diminished (although are still listed as the premier global tail risk) and growth expectation have risen. However, as the January 1st 2013 expiry date for the Bush tax cuts approaches, the fear of the US “fiscal cliff” as number one global risk have increased by 16%.

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