Wednesday 27th July 2016
NEWS TICKER: JULY 27TH 2016: The ESMA registers portal will undergo a technical update tomorrow. The machine-to-machine service will no longer support connections via SSL v1, SSL v2, SSL v3 and RC4 - All machine-to-machine services will be available via HTTPS only while HTTP connectivity will no longer be available. Full details are available on the portal itself – Twitter looked to have missed second-quarter revenue numbers and gave a gloomy outlook for growth in Q3. Q2 revenues of $602m and earnings per share of 13 cents disappointed analyst, who expected revenues of c.$607m, while EPS beat estimates of $0.10. Twitter says Q3 revenue will be somewhere between $590m and $610m. Twitter’s shares have dropped 20% year-to-date, and fell by more than 11% in after-hours trading after its results were announced. The firm says it believes advertising will migrate to video and explained that is why it secured streaming rights to NFL and NBA games in the US. Chief operating officer Adam Bain says, “There is a whole new set of video budgets out there today. These are these online video budgets. It’s about a $10bn marketplace in the US. These are video budgets that today we basically don’t qualify for, since the spend is going in other areas.” However, investors look to be wary of whether user growth (up only 1%) will meet expectations. The next benchmark report will be from Facebook (expected today), which analysts think will be strong. - Deutsche Bank AG reports that its second-quarter net income fell 98% from a year earlier, hurt by weaker performances in trading and investment banking, as well as restructuring costs. John Cryan, chief executive officer of the German bank, said that more needs to be done to control costs and that low interest rates will increasingly affect customers -- Verizon Communications has agreed to a $4.83bn cash deal for Yahoo's web assets as it looks to grow its digital media and advertising business - Apple reports a 15% drop in Q3 revenues because of falling iPhone sales, revenue and average selling price. Moreover, the firm’s market share of global smartphone shipments also fell off in Q1 by as much as 3 percentage points to 14.8% following a couple of years’ worth of impressive growth, particularly in China. Apple is meeting growing competition from Chinese smartphone vendors such as Huawei, Oppo and Xiaomi. Apple reported an overall decline in revenues of $7bn to $42.4bn in Q3, down 15% year on year, mostly due to a drop in iPhone shipments - The Catalan Parliament has voted 72-10 in favour of the conclusions of a pro-independence "constituent process" report today, a move that opposition parties, two of which abandoned the chamber in protest, described as "wholly illegal". MPs from the Popular Party in Catalonia (PPC) and Ciudadanos left the chamber in protest before the vote took place. Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) MPs remained seated but did not vote. The report, commissioned by separatist parties in the parliament, recommend measures that could lead to a unilateral declaration of independence. Earlier this month, the Spanish Constitutional Court warned the Catalan Parliament that its commission could not study "the opening of a constituent process in Catalonia that leads to the creation of a future Catalan constitution and an independent Catalan state". Esquerrra (ERC) leader Oriol Junqueras tweeted that "we have the democratic mandate to build a new country, clean and fair, and a mandate, for us, is a duty!" -- Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore, in a client note today made the case for allocating to emerging markets, even if uncertainties linger in developed markets. He suggests that whilet there are some risks involved, they are fairly priced, and insists that the fears pertaining to EM are misplaced. “Emerging Markets (EM) have performed a lot better this year than for some time. EM currencies are outperforming the Dollar and EM local bonds are up strongly year to date in Dollar terms. Despite the rally EM bonds still pay about 5-6 times higher yield than similar duration bonds in the US, while many other developed market bonds pay negative yields. The reasons for EM’s better performance are many, including better valuations, stronger technicals and improving relative and absolute fundamentals. As recently as last week, the IMF revised down developed market growth again, including -0.2% revisions of US and UK growth. China’s growth forecast was revised up.” -- The EBRD is considering extending a loan of up to $180m to RGP Kazvodkhoz (the "Company"), wholly owned by the Government of Kazakhstan, for rehabilitation of the water supply and irrigation infrastructure in South Kazakhstan, Zhambyl and Aktobe regions of Kazakhstan. The loan will be backed by a sovereign guarantee -- The unit of Royal Dutch Shell Plc plans to launch an IPO in October involving up to 330m primary and secondary shares (some 18.6% of the company’s shares) at up to P90 per share, with a listing on the Philippine Stock Exchange tentatively set for November 10th. The IPO is now awaiting regulatory approval and follows on from the recent$532m maiden issue by cement maker Cemex Holdings Philippines. Manila’s benchmark stock index touched a 15-month high last week, with investor confidence boosted by the country’s economic performance --

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Commodity ETPs in demand as China outlook Improves

Wednesday, 09 July 2014
Commodity ETPs in demand as China outlook Improves Global Commodity ETPs saw a second consecutive quarter of inflows in Q2 2014, as increasing confidence in China’s economic outlook and global economic recovery boosted commodity prices and investor demand for commodity exposure. Inflows totalled $275m, up from $271m of inflows in Q1 2014. The combination of inflows and higher prices pushed assets under management (AUM) in commodity ETPs at the end of Q2 2014 to $123.3bn from $122.4bn at the end of Q1 2014. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

Global Commodity ETPs saw a second consecutive quarter of inflows in Q2 2014, as increasing confidence in China’s economic outlook and global economic recovery boosted commodity prices and investor demand for commodity exposure. Inflows totalled $275m, up from $271m of inflows in Q1 2014. The combination of inflows and higher prices pushed assets under management (AUM) in commodity ETPs at the end of Q2 2014 to $123.3bn from $122.4bn at the end of Q1 2014.

]  “All key commodity sectors saw inflows during the quarter except for agriculture and livestock.  Precious metals saw the strongest investor demand with $430m of inflows, followed by diversified broad commodity ETPs with $172m, energy with $135m and industrial metals with a more modest $15m.  Agriculture and livestock saw $477m of outflows. Increasing confidence in the US recovery, a positive turn in China growth after three years of slowdown, and expected further easing measures by China’s policy-makers has boosted prices and investor sentiment towards commodities,” says Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities.

Commodity ETPs with the strongest demand in Q2 were platinum and palladium, with $400m and $410m of inflows respectively. Rising global auto demand (autocatalysts are a key source of demand for both metals) together with rising supply concerns due to mine strikes in South Africa and potential Russia export restrictions has exacerbated fears that already large supply deficits will worsen and has pushed prices higher for both metals.  We anticipate these trends will continue in H2.



Gold ETPs saw mixed flows, with US listed gold ETPs seeing $586m of outflows while Europe and other country listed gold ETPs saw $483m of inflows, leading to net quarterly outflows of $103m. Most of the divergence in the gold ETP flow trends took place in April.  The most likely explanation for the divergence is that during that period European investors were focusing on the close-to-home potential risks of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine, while US investors mostly maintained their bullish view on risk assets as US equities continued to hit new highs. With geopolitical risks still high and many risky asset classes trading at stretched valuations, we believe gold ETP demand will continue to improve in H2 2014 as investors look for hedges against possible risk market corrections.

Diversified broad commodity ETPs saw the largest inflows after platinum and palladium, with total inflows of $172m in Q2. The inflows reflect improving sentiment towards commodities as an asset class as China growth has shown signs of picking up and China policy-makers have made clear they are moving into stimulus mode after three years of tightening. It is interesting to note that the largest inflows were into diversified broad commodity ETPs that exclude agriculture, with $89m of new flows into these ETPs versus $75m into those that include agriculture, highlighting generally negative investor views towards agriculture. 

Agriculture ETPs as a group saw $468m of outflows, with broad diversified seeing the largest outflows followed by sugar, corn, cocoa and coffee. The outflows are likely a combination of profit-taking and expectations of improved growing conditions for a number of key agriculture commodities. If an El Nino weather event occurs later this year (current NOAA forecasts put the probability at 70%), speculative flows may return.

Energy ETPs saw $175m of inflows in Q2, with most of the flows ($169m) going into oil ETPs. Increasing violence in Iraq has raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushed oil prices higher and driven oil ETP demand higher. Natural gas ETPs saw $21m of outflows as investors took profits on the natural gas price surge earlier in the year. Industrial metals saw a modest $15m of inflows, with nickel seeing the strongest inflows ($38m) as Indonesia’s ban on ore exports drove prices higher.

 

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