Saturday 26th July 2014
slib33
FRIDAY ANALYSTS TICKER: July 25th 2014 - According to Adam Cordery, global head of European fixed income, Santander Asset Management, and fund manager for the Santander Euro Corporate Short Term and Euro Corporate bond funds, “Pricing of risk assets doesn’t offer much of a margin for error at the moment. And now Europe is starting to go on holiday, market liquidity may get poorer than normal, and any buys today may well have to be holds until September. It is always interesting to note what yields are required to attract clients to financial products. Twenty years ago, bond funds offering yields of 10%+ could generally attract lots of client interest very quickly. However as rates have come down over the years, so the yields clients demand have fallen. Now 4% seems to be the new 10%, he say. Cordery thinks that unfortunately, investors often want today the yield/risk mix that was available last year, so the products that get launched, sold and bought in size may be more risky than people think. “Products with 4% yield will sell well today, but to get to a 4% yield in Euro you need to invest in a portfolio with an average rating of single-B, and that is far from being risk-free. I get the impression the conventional wisdom today is to think that interest rates must surely go up soon and the main risk to bond portfolios is an increase in bund yields. Because of this many investors are buying short-duration products and floating rate notes, perhaps viewing them as a safe choice, almost like cash. It is possible however that these products may yet prove to have a considerable sensitivity to changes in credit market spreads and/or bond market liquidity, and may prove to be no protection at all.” - Commenting on the RBS share price jump, Dr Pete Hahn of Cass Business School, says “It's hard to tell whether the RBS share price jump today is more about relief or optimism. The former is about fewer fines, fewer losses on loans, and fewer costs in a shrinking business and possibly dividends for shareholders. And there's the rub, owning shares (as opposed to interest bearing debt) should be about optimism and long-term growth in dividends. But from a shrinking business? Few would argue that RBS' retail and corporate bank had efficiencies to be gained and cash flow that might be converted to dividends; yet like most banks, RBS' cost of equity remains stubbornly and appropriately above its ability to provide a return on that equity. For shareholders, current improvements should mean dividends in the medium term but a recognition that RBS may lack any merit for new investment and delivering any long-term dividend growth - not good. While many large retail banks are getting safer, in some aspects, and we often speak of them in terms of moving toward utility type models, banks take risks, are cyclical, face competition, have new business challengers, and are simply are not utilities. Investors shouldn't get ahead of themselves here.” - According to the monthly survey held by the central bank of Turkey, the country’s capacity utilization (CU) rate declined slightly to 74.9% in July from 75.3% in June. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted (SA) CU also declined to 74.3% from 74.7% in June, writes Mehmet Besimoglu at Oyak Yatirim Research. As for manufacturing confidence, the index declined to 109 from 110.7 in May. On SA basis, the index also edged down slightly to 106.4 from 107.2. SA capacity utilisation was broadly stable in 1H14, averaging at 74.7%. This is the same level with the 2013 average. Despite the political turmoil and volatility in financial markets, activity has been relatively resilient. Export recovery & government spending supported production in 1H. Following the elections, public spending relatively decelerated. The turmoil in Iraq also decelerated export recovery from June. Nevertheless, we still expect 3.5% GDP growth in 2014, writes Besimoglu.

Jahn and Bevan to join Lokhov at BCS

Friday, 04 May 2012
Jahn and Bevan to join Lokhov at BCS The highly competitive world of Russian broking became even more-so with a number of defections this week from the London and New York offices of Otkritie Capital. Otkritie confirmed yesterday that Nils Jahn, head of global electronic trading; Tim Bevan, a director for global electronic trading and Luis Saenz, chief executive for New York had all left the bank. Jahn, Bevan and Saenz are to join their former colleague Roman Lokhov who was previously head of global markets and investment banking at Otkritie Capital and joined Broker Credit Services (BCS) earlier this year. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The highly competitive world of Russian broking became even more-so with a number of defections this week from the London and New York offices of Otkritie Capital. Otkritie confirmed yesterday that Nils Jahn, head of global electronic trading; Tim Bevan, a director for global electronic trading and Luis Saenz, chief executive for New York had all left the bank. Jahn, Bevan and Saenz are to join their former colleague Roman Lokhov who was previously head of global markets and investment banking at Otkritie Capital and joined Broker Credit Services (BCS) earlier this year.

BCS are primarily known as a retail broker in Russia where the local market is dominated by small investors, but are making a big push to become an institutional brokerage. Last year they hired Stas Stanislav as head of of prime brokerage and electronic trading and Mike Smith as head of international sales from Russian brokerage Renaissance Capital. Speaking at Tradetech Emerging Markets Surikov was keen to marry the increasing institutional liquidity flooding into the Russian market with their large retail flow.

Currently much of the liquidity for Russian stocks flows to the international order board (IOB) at the London Stock Exchange where overseas companies can list depostitary receipts (DRs). Whilst numerous DRs are currently represented more than 95% of current volume is now accounted for by Russian Stocks. MICEX-RTS, the Russian exchange which merged in December 2011 is hoping to attract some of this liquidity not least by making changes to its unpopular T+0 settlement requirements and the creation of a CCP both of which it claims will be functioning by mid-November 2012. Increasingly high frequency traders have been taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities between the two venues creating significant opportunities for those brokers who can offer access to both markets. MICEX recently announced that about 25% of equity trading volume on their exchange was now accounted for by high frequency traders. Otkritie are currently ranked number one for both the IOB and LSE.

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