Saturday 20th January 2018
January 19th 2018: The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme looks to be a continuing stumbling block for Democrats who were expected to ink the US government spending bill, with an attendant effect on the US dollar. According to Miles Eakers, chief market analyst at Centtrip the dollar continues to show weakness ahead of possible US government shutdown. “Late last night the House of Representatives passed concessions on a major increase in defence spending and a hardline immigration bill. But Senate Democrats said they would likely block the measure unless President Donald Trump and Republicans include protection for young immigrants. An impasse could result in Trump celebrating his first anniversary in office with the first shutdown in four years, despite his party holding a majority in both houses. After reports of the vote, [the market] saw continued, but muted, dollar weakness, pushing the GBP/USD pair back above $1.39 and EUR/USD nearer the $1.23 resistance level.” The question is now whether a short=term patch will be agreed today, or whether the Republicans and the White House will be compelled to get serious about a longer-term solution. The last time a short-term bill was passed was December last year, which passed by a grand majority of 66 votes to 32. This time round it looks more difficult - Mike van Dulken, Head of Research at Accendo Markets commented to clients this afternoon: “Equities are positive to close out the week, rebounding from a negative US close and ahead of a key Senate vote to stave off a government shutdown tonight. Weaker than expected UK Retail Sales have seen the UK’s blue-chip index take a leg higher, benefiting from Sterling's retreat from fresh post-referendum highs earlier this morning. Interestingly, Germany’s DAX is the rank outperformer, this in spite of additional Euro strength after hawkish ECB comments, whilst US equities point towards a positive open this afternoon. The FTSE has climbed higher thanks to GBP weakness benefiting names such as ULVR, BATS, SHP, RELX, CCL and GSK, while Miners are embracing the weaker USD's fillip for metals. This is easily offsetting weakness for BP (Oil lower on IEA report), HSBC (US forex fine), BT (pension scheme deal) and KGF (Carpetright profits warning). Germany’s DAX outperforms with just Linde in the red, as Thyssenkrupp, Adidas, BASF and Fresenius lead the way higher. The FTSE 100 has broken back above 7715. The DAX 30 has broken above 13350 to flirt with a 13420 breakout. Dow Jones Futures have rebounded to re-test 26055. Gold has broken back above $1332.” --

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