Friday 19th December 2014
NEWS TICKER: THURSDAY DECEMBER 18TH 2014: Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index dropped -4.8% m/m in November (-6.1% yr/yr) and will end 2014 in a ‘deflationary’ mode, says economist Patricia Mohr. "Significant capacity expansion and the defence of market share by major oil and iron ore producers— against a backdrop of lacklustre world economic growth — account for the softness at the end of the year," she says. Mohr adds that the decision by Saudi Arabia not to reduce output to shore up international oil prices, but instead to allow prices to drop to levels curbing US shale development appears to be having a negative impact on confidence in a wide variety of other commodity as well as equity markets. She predicts prices will fall further this month, but will start to rebound in mid 201 - Jonathan Hill, the EU's financial-services commissioner, says he plans to pursue rules that separate a bank's proprietary trading from retail operations. "The sensible thing to do is to seek to make progress quickly" on the issue, Hill said. "There are still areas of risk in some of the biggest and most complicated banks,” reports Bloomberg- CME Group, said yesterday that it will change daily price limits in its CME Feeder Cattle futures effective today, pursuant to its emergency action authority. The current daily price limit for CME Feeder Cattle futures is $3.00 per hundredweight and will change to $4.50 per hundredweight effective on trade date December 18th Additionally, effective December 19th (tomorrow) these limits will have the ability to expand by 150% to $6.75 per hundredweight on any business day in the event that one of the first two contract months settles at limit on the previous trading day. CME Feeder Cattle futures have been locked limit for five consecutive days as a result of various factors. The change to daily price limits is necessary to ensure continued price discovery and risk transfer, says the CME. Daily price limits for CME Live Cattle futures will remain unchanged at $3.00 per hundredweight. Effective Friday, December 19th, these limits will have the ability to expand by 150 percent to $4.50 per hundredweight in the event that one of the first two contract months settles at limit on the previous trading day - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +16.42 points higher or +0.51% to 3243.65, taking the year-to-date performance to +2.49%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.29% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.71%. The top active stocks were Keppel Corp (+2.68%), SingTel (-1.02%), DBS (+2.36%), Global Logistic (-3.21%) and UOB (+0.30%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index (+3.13%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index are Midas Holdings (+6.38%) and Geo Energy Resources (unchanged). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index, which declined -0.98% with SingTel’s share price declining -1.02% and StarHub’s share price declining-0.73%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (+2.56%), DBXT CSI300 ETF (+0.42%), STI ETF (+0.61%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Ascendas REIT (-0.42%), Keppel DC REIT (unchanged), Suntec REIT (+0.26%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI23400MBeCW150129 (+7.32%), HSI22600MBePW150129 (unchanged), HSI24000MBeCW150129 (+12.50%). The most active stock warrants by value today were KepCorp MBeCW150602 (+21.95%), DBS MB eCW150420 (+29.29%), DBS MB ePW150402 (-18.03%) - Spain’s Director of Public Prosecutions, Eduardo Torres Dulce, has resigned from the post for “personal reasons”, Spanish daily El Mundo reported this morning. A spokesman for the Public Prosecutor’s office confirmed the news by telephone to The Spain Report, saying that Mr. Torres Dulce had informed Justice Minister Rafael Catalá of his decision: “but that it perhaps would not come into effect until they find a replacement”. That decision is taken at cabinet level. The next cabinet meeting for Rajoy’s government is tomorrow morning - Hedge funds including Marshall Wace, Odey Asset Management and Lansdowne Partners are shorting OTP Bank Plc, a Hungarian lender with a Russian subsidiary whose shares have fallen almost 6% this month reports Albourne Village. All three London-based funds took or increased their position this month in OTP, Hungary’s largest lender, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ruble rose today in Moscow after plunging as much as 19%against the dollar yesterday, when Russia’s central bank increased interest rates to 17% percent from 10.5 percent in an attempt to stem the decline. The ruble is down 52% this year and has taken a disproportionate beating in the wake of sanctions and falling oil prices. The country still has the third largest currency reserves in the world and so is unlikely to default. According to Eric Chaney, Manolis Davradakis and Greg Venizelos from AXA IM’s Research and Investment Strategy team Russia will likely resort to fiscal stimulus to contain the risk of social and political unrest. Capital controls, political unrest and even default on private hard currency debts are possible outcomes they say. They credit default swaps market is pricing a one-third probability of sovereign default within five years - Indonesia is ramping up financing for its $439bn development program, planning an almost fivefold increase in sales of project sukuk. The government is seeking to raise IDR7.14trn rupiah (around $568m) from notes that will fund particular construction ventures next year, compared with IDR1.5trn this year, which say local press reports, will help finance its estimated spending of about IDR5,519trn from 2015 to 2019 to build roads, railways and power plants.

Prime money market funds credit profiles weaken says Moody's

Thursday, 09 May 2013
Prime money market funds credit profiles weaken says Moody's The credit profiles of euro-denominated, US prime, and sterling prime money market funds (MMFs) worsened slightly in the first quarter of 2013, says Moody's Investors Service in its quarterly MMF reports published today. According to the ratings agency  continued constraints on supply of high-quality short-term assets, and the prolonged period of low interest rates leading MMF portfolios to migrate to lower rated assets are behind the deterioration. Moody's quarterly MMF reports evaluate market trends and the evolution of MMFs' risk factors, including credit, liquidity and market risks, based on the aggregated data of Moody's rated MMFs. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The credit profiles of euro-denominated, US prime, and sterling prime money market funds (MMFs) worsened slightly in the first quarter of 2013, says Moody's Investors Service in its quarterly MMF reports published today. According to the ratings agency  continued constraints on supply of high-quality short-term assets, and the prolonged period of low interest rates leading MMF portfolios to migrate to lower rated assets are behind the deterioration. Moody's quarterly MMF reports evaluate market trends and the evolution of MMFs' risk factors, including credit, liquidity and market risks, based on the aggregated data of Moody's rated MMFs.

Prime euro-denominated MMFs experienced further credit deterioration and maturity extensions in Q1, largely driven by the prolonged low rate environment and constraints on supply of high-quality assets. Their credit profiles saw a modest deterioration in Q1 2013, reflected by the decrease in investments in securities rated Aaa, Aa1 and Aa2, claims Moody's. Overnight liquidity decreased significantly to 30.5% of assets under management (AUM), after it peaked at 37.4% at end-2012, due to the continued pressures on funds' yields, and the resulting need for funds to invest their cash in higher- yielding instruments, it adds.

The low interest-rate environment and low yields across the sector prompted a decrease in euro MMFs AUM to 74.8bn. The increased exposure to relatively long-dated securities—combined with the modest credit profile deterioration—increased funds' sensitivity to market risk. As the credit pressures on European banks continue, funds' aggregate exposure to European financial institutions decreased 20% to €29bn at the end of March from €36bn at the beginning of the quarter. Exposure to UK financial institutions decreased significantly by 51%, followed by German (-27%) and French financial institutions (-10%).



Meanwhile, there has been  a modest credit deterioration, as 2.2% of investments in US domiciled funds and 3.8% in offshore domiciled funds moved from Aaa and Aa-rated securities to A-rated securities. Approximately 23% of investments in all Moody's-rated MMFs were rated Aaa, says Moody's. Overnight liquidity remained high, at around 39% of US domiciled fund assets and 34% in offshore domiciled funds on average.

In addition, the funds' sensitivity to market risk increased modestly in this quarter due to the increased exposure to slightly longer-dated securities combined with the modest deterioration in funds' credit profiles.

Combined AUM of U.S. domiciled funds declined 3.5% to $662bn, while the combined AUM of European and offshore domiciled funds increased 3% to $242bn.

Moody's says that prime sterling-denominated MMFs experienced further credit deterioration and maturity extensions in Q1, largely driven by the prolonged low rate environment. Funds' credit profiles saw a modest decline in credit quality, due to the credit degradation of the UK, as reflected by Moody's downgrade of UK government's bond rating in February by one notch to Aa1. Sterling MMFs' liquidity trend has been negative throughout Q1, due to fund managers' increased investment of cash and cash-like securities in their search for higher yield. This also led to increase the funds' WAM by 3.8 days throughout the quarter. Given the increased exposure to relatively long-dated securities, combined with the modest deterioration in the credit profile, funds' sensitivity to market risk increased.

Combined AUM increased by 2.5% to GBP114.8 billion during the quarter, despite the low interest-rate environment and low yields across the sector. While exposure to European financial institutions remained stable during the quarter at 49% or GBP56 billion, there have been significant country shifts. Exposure to Dutch and French financial institutions decreased by 5% and 4%, respectively, and exposures to UK and Swedish financial institutions increased by 19% and 6%, respectively.


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