Saturday 20th December 2014
NEWS TICKER: FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH 2014: Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index dropped -4.8% m/m in November (-6.1% yr/yr) and will end 2014 in a ‘deflationary’ mode, says economist Patricia Mohr. "Significant capacity expansion and the defence of market share by major oil and iron ore producers— against a backdrop of lacklustre world economic growth — account for the softness at the end of the year," she says. Mohr adds that the decision by Saudi Arabia not to reduce output to shore up international oil prices, but instead to allow prices to drop to levels curbing US shale development appears to be having a negative impact on confidence in a wide variety of other commodity as well as equity markets. She predicts prices will fall further this month, but will start to rebound in mid 201 - Jonathan Hill, the EU's financial-services commissioner, says he plans to pursue rules that separate a bank's proprietary trading from retail operations. "The sensible thing to do is to seek to make progress quickly" on the issue, Hill said. "There are still areas of risk in some of the biggest and most complicated banks,” reports Bloomberg- CME Group, said yesterday that it will change daily price limits in its CME Feeder Cattle futures effective today, pursuant to its emergency action authority. The current daily price limit for CME Feeder Cattle futures is $3.00 per hundredweight and will change to $4.50 per hundredweight effective on trade date December 18th Additionally, effective December 19th (tomorrow) these limits will have the ability to expand by 150% to $6.75 per hundredweight on any business day in the event that one of the first two contract months settles at limit on the previous trading day. CME Feeder Cattle futures have been locked limit for five consecutive days as a result of various factors. The change to daily price limits is necessary to ensure continued price discovery and risk transfer, says the CME. Daily price limits for CME Live Cattle futures will remain unchanged at $3.00 per hundredweight. Effective Friday, December 19th, these limits will have the ability to expand by 150 percent to $4.50 per hundredweight in the event that one of the first two contract months settles at limit on the previous trading day - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +16.42 points higher or +0.51% to 3243.65, taking the year-to-date performance to +2.49%. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.29% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.71%. The top active stocks were Keppel Corp (+2.68%), SingTel (-1.02%), DBS (+2.36%), Global Logistic (-3.21%) and UOB (+0.30%). The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index (+3.13%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index are Midas Holdings (+6.38%) and Geo Energy Resources (unchanged). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index, which declined -0.98% with SingTel’s share price declining -1.02% and StarHub’s share price declining-0.73%. The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the IS MSCI India (+2.56%), DBXT CSI300 ETF (+0.42%), STI ETF (+0.61%). The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Ascendas REIT (-0.42%), Keppel DC REIT (unchanged), Suntec REIT (+0.26%). The most active index warrants by value today were HSI23400MBeCW150129 (+7.32%), HSI22600MBePW150129 (unchanged), HSI24000MBeCW150129 (+12.50%). The most active stock warrants by value today were KepCorp MBeCW150602 (+21.95%), DBS MB eCW150420 (+29.29%), DBS MB ePW150402 (-18.03%) - Spain’s Director of Public Prosecutions, Eduardo Torres Dulce, has resigned from the post for “personal reasons”, Spanish daily El Mundo reported this morning. A spokesman for the Public Prosecutor’s office confirmed the news by telephone to The Spain Report, saying that Mr. Torres Dulce had informed Justice Minister Rafael Catalá of his decision: “but that it perhaps would not come into effect until they find a replacement”. That decision is taken at cabinet level. The next cabinet meeting for Rajoy’s government is tomorrow morning - Hedge funds including Marshall Wace, Odey Asset Management and Lansdowne Partners are shorting OTP Bank Plc, a Hungarian lender with a Russian subsidiary whose shares have fallen almost 6% this month reports Albourne Village. All three London-based funds took or increased their position this month in OTP, Hungary’s largest lender, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ruble rose today in Moscow after plunging as much as 19%against the dollar yesterday, when Russia’s central bank increased interest rates to 17% percent from 10.5 percent in an attempt to stem the decline. The ruble is down 52% this year and has taken a disproportionate beating in the wake of sanctions and falling oil prices. The country still has the third largest currency reserves in the world and so is unlikely to default. According to Eric Chaney, Manolis Davradakis and Greg Venizelos from AXA IM’s Research and Investment Strategy team Russia will likely resort to fiscal stimulus to contain the risk of social and political unrest. Capital controls, political unrest and even default on private hard currency debts are possible outcomes they say. They credit default swaps market is pricing a one-third probability of sovereign default within five years - Indonesia is ramping up financing for its $439bn development program, planning an almost fivefold increase in sales of project sukuk. The government is seeking to raise IDR7.14trn rupiah (around $568m) from notes that will fund particular construction ventures next year, compared with IDR1.5trn this year, which say local press reports, will help finance its estimated spending of about IDR5,519trn from 2015 to 2019 to build roads, railways and power plants.

Russian T+3 Settlement set for Mid-November

Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Russian T+3 Settlement set for Mid-November The Russian switch from T+0 settlement towards a T+3 settlement is now likely to take place in Mid-November according to an announcement made by the MICEX-RTS exchange at an event they held in London yesterday. This is later than previously suggested with the delay put down to the slower than expected introduction of a single central securities depositary (CSD) and CCP. http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/

The Russian switch from T+0 settlement towards a T+3 settlement is now likely to take place in Mid-November according to an announcement made by the MICEX-RTS exchange at an event they held in London yesterday. This is later than previously suggested with the delay put down to the slower than expected introduction of a single central securities depositary (CSD) and CCP.

“The current T+0 settlement system has long been an issue for international institutional investors.” claimed Denis Svechnikov, head of client relations and DMA sales at Russian broker URALSIB Capital Financial speaking at the Tradetech Emerging Markets conference also held in London yesterday. The creation of a recognised CSD should release funds from US institutional investors that had been prevented from investing by the current system. Currently many of these investors had therefore been drawn to the London Stock Exchanges International Order Book (IOB) where a large number of Russian Depositary Receipts (DRs) are listed.

Local brokers had been offering T+3 funding before this, but because of the funding requirements over the three days it had put off some investors.  Vahan Vardanian, manager of IT at MICEX-RTS felt that the creation of the CSD and the change to T+3 would remove two of the biggest obstacles to for investors though he felt that issues around transparency, reporting and corporate governance would take longer to change.



Stas Surikov, head of prime brokerage and electronic trading at BCS Financial issued a word of caution regarding the rapid changes on multiple fronts taking place in Russia. “These changes are undoubtedly much needed, but there is a concern that they will be forced through too quickly, in order to have them in place before a planned MICEX-RTS IPO”. A date for the IPO has yet to be announced though it has been reported that it has been scheduled for 2013.

The changes should attract even greater flow from the high frequency segment to the Russian market. There has been a significant increase in high frequency activity on the Russian exchange in the last 24months and MICEX’s Vardanian estimates that as much as 40% of transactions on the exchange are now accounted for by HFT. However this figure varies between product with some brokers estimating the figure to be as high as 75% in FX versus only 25% in equities.

For more information about the Russia market please register to attend FTSE Global Market’s Accessing Russian event hosted in London on 23rd May. For more information go to www.accessingrussia.com or contact Adam Cuthbert on adam.cuthbert@berlinguer.com">adam.cuthbert@berlinguer.com

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