Tuesday 26th July 2016
NEWS TICKER: JULY 25TH 2016: Moody's says that Vedanta Ltd's (unrated) revised merger terms with Cairn India Ltd. (unrated) have no immediate impact on Vedanta Resources plc's B2 corporate family rating (CFR), Caa1 senior unsecured notes rating and negative outlook. While the revised terms entail a rise in debt/cash out flow of an estimated $447m -- compared to $120munder the original terms -- they will give Vedanta Ltd. complete access to Cairn India's large cash holdings, as well as provide the flexibility to reduce debt, thereby lowering leverage and reducing subordination within the group. As such, the successful execution of the merger, to the extent that it leads to de-leveraging, will be credit positive. Positive rating implications could emerge if adjusted leverage improved to less than 4.5x on a sustained basis. Should the merger proceed as announced -- subject to approval, in some cashless, all-stock transaction -- minority shareholders will receive one equity share and four 7.5% preference shares in Vedanta Ltd. for every share held in Cairn India. Shareholders will have the option of redeeming the preference shares within 30 days, or holding until maturity for 18 months. Following completion of the transaction, Vedanta Resources' shareholding in its subsidiary Vedanta Ltd will fall to 50.1% from 62.9%. At the end of June this year, Cairn India had $3.5 billion in cash and no external debt outstanding." Although delayed from the initial announcement in June 2015, the revised terms are a step forward in the merger proceedings -- the merger will provide Vedanta Ltd. better access to Cairn India's large cash balances of $3.5 billion, as previous access was only possible through the up-streaming of dividends," says Kaustubh Chaubal a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst. - The World Bank is beginning work on a new project, aimed at supporting the poorer regions of Poland by better utilising European Union funds made available to the country through the European Union Financial Framework 2014-2020. Representatives from Podkarpackie and Świętokrzyskie, the two regions selected for this work, will cooperate with experts from the World Bank, the Ministry of Development, and the European Commission during this project. The project - part of a European Commission initiative - will also include two regions in Romania. Poland and Romania are the first to implement this pilot project, whose objective is to increase the absorption of European Union funds and support socioeconomic development at the local level. “We are happy that we will be able to use our global experience, as well as our knowledge of the conditions in Poland, to support the Polish authorities in developing the country’s lagging regions,” says Arup Banerji, World Bank regional director for European Union countries - The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 4.87 points or 0.17% higher to 2945.35, taking the year-to-date performance to +2.17%. The top active stocks today were Singtel, which gained 1.66%, DBS, which declined 0.06%, Wilmar Intl, which declined 0.97%, UOB, which gained0.26% and ComfortDelGro, with a1.73% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.84%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined0.24%. Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan stocks retreat from over 1-year high; TSMC down. Taiwan stocks retreated from more-than-one-year highs on Monday as investors took profits on recent winners such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). The main index fell 0.6 percent at 8,954.58 points. It reached as high as 9,085.91 earlier in the session, an intraday level not seen since July 2015. The electronics subindex and the financial sub-index were both down about 0.7%. TSMC, the world's top contract chip maker, was off nearly 1%. The yen traded weaker with trade data showing better than expected figures though exports and imports declined notably ahead of a week that will see the Fed and the Bank of Japan comment on monetary policy. The adjusted trade balance came in at a surplus of ¥33bn while and imports eased 18.8%, less than the 19.7% drop expected and exports fell 7.4%, less than the 11.6% decline anticipated. The overall trade balance came in at a surplus of ¥693bn, better than the ¥495bn expected. USD/JPY changed hands at 106.32, up 0.18%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7478, up 0.17%. GBP/USD traded at 1.3135, up 0.19%. -- Rangold Resources will be announcing its Q2 results at the London Stock Exchange on Thursday, August 4th – Most equity markets kicked off higher today, buoyed by the firm tone of the G-20 Finance Ministers meeting which promised “to use all policy tools –monetary, fiscal and structural- individually and collectively” to achieve the goal of “sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth” in view of lingering concerns over spillover effects from Brexit. Central bank meetings will be the focus of market attention this week. The Fed is widely expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged this week. However, a recent string of better than expected U.S. data reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by December, compared with less than 20% a week ago and up from 9% at the start of this month. The Fed monetary oversight committee starts its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the story this week will focus on the Bank of Japan: will it, won’t it expand its monetary policy, without ‘helicopter money’? According to Russell Matthews, a portfolio manager at Russell Matthews, “Core government bond markets have largely moved sideways and very short dated US rates have repriced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2016 meaningfully higher. Corporate bonds have continued to perform well as the insatiable demand for yield is unabated, with spreads compressing in all sectors… Rate and sovereign credit have had a good run of late but the question we are asking ourselves is are we at the point where policy makers and investors have become complacent? Our mantra has always been that policy makers are likely to be lazy and under deliver if there is no pressure from markets. We have been through two major risk events in the last six weeks (Brexit, Turkey) and risk assets have continued to perform. We expected and anticipated this outcome, but that does not prevent us from becoming uneasy at the level of calm that we are witnessing, and the growing confidence that the market has with policy makers.” The other trend on investors’ minds will be the EU’s stance on Italy’s growing banking crisis: will the EU stick its ostrich like head in the sand? Elsewhere in Europe, Greek Minister of Finance Euclid Tsakalotos stated in an interview on Saturday that the primary surplus targets until 2018 are attainable and the government will not have to activate the automatic spending cuts mechanism. Beyond 2018 and in the medium term, however, the Greek government will pursue through negotiations primary surplus targets below 3.5% of GDP -

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Middle East and Africa Regulation

No surprise perhaps, that political turmoil in the Middle East has focused the minds of investors into relative safe havens. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is  the main beneficiary of inflows of private capital into the GCC region (Gulf Cooperation Council), according to Invesco’s fifth annual Invesco Middle East Asset Management Study.The UAE saw total private capital inflows of 81% on a net respondent view basis in 2014, compared to 52% last year. Over half (58%) of this capital was seen on a net respondent view to be coming from emerging markets, including Russia and Africa. In comparison, the net respondent view shows most other countries in the GCC to be in net outflow.

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Moody's Investors Service says that Egypt is demonstrating signs of political stabilisation and economic improvement, with credit challenges centred on weak government finances.The government has started the implementation of measures to lower fiscal deficits and contain government debt, while external financial support from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have helped stabilise the country's international reserves and government funding costs, says the ratings agency.

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Florida based MEA Risk, a risk and country stability assessment firm issues today a report that discusses the latest developments on ISIS in North Africa and in the Sahel, with the conclusion that an offensive is under way.

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South Africa's Reserve Bank (SARB) has placed African Bank Limited under external supervision and announced plans for a capital injection underwritten by local lenders.

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In 2013, a number of concerns were raised about the integrity of foreign exchange (FX) rate benchmarks. These concerns stemmed particularly from the incentives for potential market malpractice linked to the structure of trading around the benchmark fixings. As a result, the FSB Plenary formed a working group chaired by Guy Debelle of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Paul Fisher of the Bank of England to focus on foreign exchange benchmarks. The group was given a mandate to undertake analysis of the FX market structure and incentives that may promote particular types of trading activity around the benchmark fixings. The group was tasked to propose possible remedies to address these adverse incentives as well as to examine whether there is a need and scope to improve the construction of the benchmarks themselves.

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The positive outlook for global economic growth has increased in the last year among Middle East intermediaries, according to the latest poll, carried out by Invesco Asset Management, however their biggest concern for global financial markets is emerging market monetary tightening. 

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Monday, 02 September 2013

DIFC reports 7% business uptick

The number of companies operating in the Dubai International Financial Centre is on the rise again. The DIFC reports a 7% uptick in registrations reflecting a return to confidence in the emirate follow a number of fallow years.

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The International Monetary Fund says the near-term outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa remains broadly positive, with growth projected to accelerate to around 5.5% in 2013-14, following a year of strong growth in 2012. In its May 2013 Regional Economic Outlook, Building Momentum in a Multi-Speed World, the IMF says that these favourable prospects partly reflect the gradually improving outlook for the global economy, while locally, investment in export-oriented sectors is an important driver of growth for the future.

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